Instability in Europe: Changing situation in Europe may cause problems for business in 2015

Instability in Europe: Changing situation in Europe may cause problems for business in 2015


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Executive Summary

The EU and the Euro, which were once seen as key to its economic strength have contributed to some major problems over the last five years which have destabilized the region. Although the EU has now recovered after the recession and most countries are posting some minor growth, in many countries the traditional parties are losing votes to new parties arising both on the right and the left.

Key Findings

Find out how Europe's economy is fairing at the start of 2015.

Assess which countries are expected to experience some unusual voting behavior in 2015.

Look at how certain sovereign credit rating have fared in Europe.

Learn what is causing instability in Europe.

Establish what the risks for businesses and investors might be.

Reasons To Buy

Why is Europe's economy growing slowly?

Why are voters turning to more unconventional parties?

How likely is a separation within the EU?

Could 2015 see wholesale change in Europe?



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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Overview 2

Catalyst 2

Summary 2

Current destabilizing elements 6

Poor state of Europe's economy 6

Immigration and new steps toward the right 6

Anti-austerity and anti-capitalism movements formed 7

Energy prices are likely to be a hinge factor in Europe's future 7

Countries with expected problems in 2015 8

UK 8

Scottish Independence 9

Ukraine 9

Sweden 10

Greece 10

Spain 13

Catalonia Independence 14

Germany 14

France 14

Conclusions 15

The economic situation is the exacerbating political factor 15

This could be bad for business in Europe 15

This instability may be beneficial in the long term 15

Appendix 17

Sources 17

Further Reading 17

Ask the analyst 18

About MarketLine 18

Disclaimer 18

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Russian sovereign risk credit ratings 10

Table 2: Greece sovereign risk credit ratings 12

Table 3: Spain sovereign risk credit ratings 13

TABLE OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Pablo Iglesias Podemos party leader 7

Figure 2: UK change in party membership 8

Figure 3: Greek polling data to January 2015 12

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