VietNam Macroeconomic Comprehensive Report Q4/2019
About the Report
About the Report
According to the updated report in April 2019, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted that the World economic growth rate would drop to the lowest level since the economic crisis in the period of 2008-2009. Accordingly, the world economy was forecasted to grow by 3,3% in 2019 and 3,6% in 2020, the 2019 growth rate would decrease x,x percentage point compared to the July 2019 forecast.
In Q3/2019, USD price tended to happen closely to the forecast in the end of last year and quite similar to the same moment of 2018. USD fluctuated continuously in Q1/2019 but it showed the cooling down trend compared to QIV/2018 and became more stable.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q3/2019 was estimated to increase by x,xx% compared to the same period of the previous year, despite lower than the growth rate of Q3/2018, it was higher than the growth rate of Q1/2016, Q1/2017.
The consumer price index (CPI) in the first 3 months of 2019 witnessed many big changes. CPI after rising sharply in the first 7 months of 2019, decreased in 7/2019.
Vietnam's joining in free trade agreements in the recent time such as AEC, CPTPP, EVFTA,.. will create opportunities to promote exports due to preferential tax as well as make use of supported sources, attract FDI. However, domestic enterprises will have to face increasing competition pressure as well as strict technology barriers that imported countries require. VIRAC forecasts that Vietnam GDP growth rate in Q1/2019 can achieve 7.0%. Despite declining in 3/3019, the average CPI of Q1/2019 still increased by 2.63% compared to the same period of 2018.
The total import-export turnover of the whole country in Q1/2019 increased by 6.6% compared to the same period last year. In Q1/2019, the trade balance continued to record a trade surplus of 1.41 billion USD. Vietnam's import and export still depends heavily on FDI inflows.
Vietnam's participation in free trade agreements in the past such as AEC, CPTPP, EVFTA ... will be an opportunity to boost export activities. VIRAC expects Vietnam's GDP growth in 2019 to reach 7.0%. However, it is still challenging to achieve the target set in 2019.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
1.World econimic situation
1.1 Economic growth rate
1.2 Commodity market
2. Vietnam economic situation
2.1 Economic growth rate
2.1.7 Fiscal policy
2.1.8 Monetary policy
2.1.9 Banking system
2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents
2.2.1 Trade agreements are signed and impacts
2.2.2 Newly promulgated legal documents and decrees
2.3 Operation of investment channels
2.3.3 Commodity market
2.4 M&A activity
2.5 Risk and forecast
List of Figure
Lits of figures
Figure 1: GDP growth rates by quarter, 2016-2019
Figure 2: Evolution of the monthly CPI, 1/2015 -9 / 2019
Figure 3: The VND / USD, 1/2013-9/2019
Figure 4: The VND / CNY, 8/2018-9/2019
Figure 5: The imports mainly from China, 9M / 2019
Figure 6: The main export items to China, 9M / 2019
Figure 7: Proportion of exports textile and garment industry in the total value of merchandise exports, 2013-9M / 2019
Figure 8: Production and consumption of fiber in the world, in 2000-2018e
Figure 9: Consumption of fiber world by type, 2018
Figure 10: Exporting fiber, yarn world, 2010-2017e
Figure 11: Structure of consumption purposes world fiber 2014
Figure 12: Demand yarns world 1980-2030e
Figure 13: The production of yarns and fabrics globally from Q2 / 2016-Q1 / 2019
Figure 14: Trade Cloth World, 2010-2018e
Figure 15: Top 10 economies, exports of textiles of the world, 2018
Figure 16: Top 10 economies, imports of textiles of the world, 2018
Figure 17: Production scale global textile, 2016-2021e
Figure 18: Profit global garment industry, 2019-2023e
Figure 19: The value of global textile imports, 2010-2023e
Figure 20: Top 10 export economy of the world garment , 2018
Figure 21: Top 10 economies garment importers of the world, 2018
Figure 22: Structure of global textile exports 2017e
Figure 23: The value of the global garment trade 2010-2018F
Figure 24: Scale consumption global apparel market 2015-2025f
Figure 25: Per capita spending for apparel 2014-2019F
Figure 26: The average wage textile industry of several countries, 2017
Figure 27: Production and consumption value fibers, 2010-9M / 2019
Figure 28: Export fibers of Vietnam, 2010-9M / 2019
Figure 29: Structure of exports textile fibers by value, 9M / 2019
Figure 30: Structure of import of textile fibers by value, 9M / 2019
Figure 31: Number of spindles, rotors Vietnam fiber industry, 2010-2017e
Figure 32: Production of yarn production in Vietnam, 2014-9M / 2019
Figure 33: Structure of production of fabrics Vietnam, 2012-9M / 2019
Figure 34: Value consumption canvas, 2012-9M / 2019
Figure 35: Value export the fabric of Vietnam, 2011-9M / 2019
Figure 36: Market Structure imported fabric of Vietnam, 9T / 2019
Figure 37: Production of clothing production, 2012-9M / 2019
Figure 38: Exports of textiles (including cotton), 2010-9M / 2019
Figure 39: Volume garments export from Vietnam to EAEU, 7T / 2018
Figure 40: Structure of the market of export of textiles and garments in Vietnam, 9M / 2019
Figure 41: The export value of textiles and garments to several countries, 2013-9M / 2019
Figure 42: Exports of textiles and garments of FIEs and domestic enterprises, 2010-9M / 2019
Figure 43: Net sales, 2017-2018
Figure 44: Target profit, 2017-2018
Figure 45: Financial expenses and rate CPTC / DTT, 2017-2018
Figure 46: Ability to repay, 2017-2018
Figure 47: Liquidity, 2017-2018
Figure 48: Rate of return , 2017-2018
Figure 49: Net sales, 2017-2018
Figure 50: Target profit, 2017-2018
Figure 51: Financial expenses and rate CPTC / DTT, 2017-2018
Figure 52: Round asset turnover, 2018
Figure 53: Number of days inventory, 2018
Figure 54: Liquidity, 2017-2018
Figure 55: Rate of return, 2017-2018
List of Table
List of tables
Table 1: The forecast world economic growth (%), 7/2019
Table 2: Growth in world commodity prices monthly, quarter III / 2019 (%)
Table 3: Regulations reserve ratio required, 2018
Table 4: the level of capital adequacy of the financial system (%), 2018
Table 5: situation of restructuring banks
Table 6: impact of CPTPP and TPP for the economy Vietnam 2030 (%)
Table 7: Procedure agreements among trade agreements freely (FTA)
Table 8: Roadmap reducing short-term capital for long-term loans under Circular 06 and Circular No. 19
Table 9: The volume of bonds issued and plans to release in 2019
Table 10: Table Statistical some bond issuance in 2018 of CI
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