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Wealth in the Brazil: Sizing the Market Opportunity

Wealth in the Brazil: Sizing the Market Opportunity


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Executive Summary

It is a torrid time for the Brazilian wealth market. The country is in the depths of an enduring economic recession; with no immediate end in sight growth in the Brazilian wealth market is set to slow noticeably. Underlying this is deceleration in growth of the retail savings and investments market; equities in particular have plummeted thanks to the ongoing poor performances of the Bovespa since 2013. With such uncertainty, it is no surprise that local HNW individuals choose to hold almost 20% of their portfolio overseas. Yet Brazil is tightening up on offshore holdings, with individuals now required to report foreign assets and wealth over $100,000 to the Brazilian central bank.

Key Findings

Affluent individuals represent just 1% of the Brazilian population but hold 94% of the country's liquid assets.

Deposits and mutual funds dominate the retail savings and investments market, accounting for 88% of the market.

Growth in the retail savings market is slowing considerably thanks to considerable economic uncertainty. Deposits are forecast to grow by just 2.9% from 2015 to 2019, compared to 9.4% between 2010 and 2014.

Brazilian HNW investors hold 24% of their assets in alternative, commodity, and property assets, with local hedge funds accounting for the vast majority of this.

The economic situation is leading to notable changes in the tax regime, with capital gains tax and inheritance tax rates increasing, as well as the mooted introduction of a financial transaction tax. Brazil is also introducing a tax amnesty for offshore assets.

Synopsis

Verdict Financial's "Wealth in Brazil: Sizing the Market Opportunity" analyzes the Brazilian wealth and retail savings and investments markets, with a focus on the HNW segment. The report is based on our proprietary datasets. Specifically the report:Sizes the affluent market (both by number of individuals and value of their liquid assets) using our proprietary datasets.

Analyzes which asset classes are favored by Brazilian investors and how their preferences impact the growth of the overall savings and investments market.

Examines HNW clients' attitudes towards non-liquid investments such as property and commodities.

Identifies key drivers and booking centers for offshore investments.

Reasons To Buy

Benchmark your share of the Brazilian wealth market against the current market size.

Forecast your future growth prospects using our projections for the market to 2019.

Identify your most promising client segment by analyzing penetration of affluent individuals in Brazil.

Evaluate your HNW proposition by understanding how changing Brazilian tax systems will impact HNW clients.

Review your offshore strategy by learning HNW motivations for offshore investments and their preferred booking centers.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Brazilian wealth market is charting a turbulent course

Key findings

Critical success factors

SIZING AND FORECASTING THE BRAZILIAN WEALTH MARKET

The onshore wealth market is highly concentrated at the top end

Affluent individuals account for 1.0% of the population

The Brazilian wealth market is heavily concentrated, with the affluent holding around 94% of total liquid assets

DRIVERS OF GROWTH IN THE BRAZILIAN WEALTH MARKET

Brazil's retail savings and investment market will suffer in the short term

The recession will hamper growth in the retail savings and investment market

Growth in the cornerstones of the market will slow

Retail deposits will follow GDP and are expected to contract in 2016

Interest rates reached double digits in 2015, as did inflation

Direct bond holdings are correlated to real GDP growth rates

The collapse in the Bovespa's performance will limit growth of mutual funds and equities

Direct equity investment is well correlated to the fortunes of the Bovespa

HNW INVESTMENT PREFERENCES

Brazilian HNW individuals allocate 24% of their portfolios into alternative and property assets

Brazilian HNW individuals invest heavily in hedge funds

Brazilian HNW individuals hold small levels of commodity investments

Brazilian property returns have been stellar but are set to fall

Brazilian HNW individuals have an increasing appetite for offshore allocation

Offshore wealth is most commonly held in the US

Local economic and political instability are the biggest drivers for offshore investments

Tax is a comparatively limited driver for offshore investments

APPENDIX

Abbreviations and acronyms

Supplementary data

Definitions

Affluent

Domicile

DTA

FATCA

HNW

Liquid assets

Mass affluent

Onshore

Residency

TIEAs

Methodology

Global Wealth Model methodology

Global Retail Investments Analytics methodology

Verdict Financial's 2015 Global Wealth Managers Survey

Bibliography

Further reading

About Verdict Financial

Disclaimer

Figure 1: Affluent individuals accounted for 1% of the population in 2015

Figure 2: Affluent Brazilians will continue to hold around 95% of liquid assets

Figure 3: The recession will cause a contraction in the Brazilian retail savings and investment market in 2016

Figure 4: Total retail savings and investments will exceed USD 600bn in 2019

Figure 5: Slower growth is forecast for mutual funds and deposits from 2015

Figure 6: Deposit growth is strongly linked to real GDP growth and will contract in 2016

Figure 7: Direct bond growth will shadow GDP from 2016

Figure 8: While mutual fund growth rates will slow in relation to GDP, equities are expected to recover strongly

Figure 9: Alternative assets form an important part of Brazilian HNW portfolios

Figure 10: Brazilian HNW individuals held almost 20% of their assets offshore in 2015

Figure 11: The US accounted for over 55% of Brazilian HNW offshore assets in 2015

Figure 12: Economic and political instability are the key drivers of offshore investment among Brazilian HNW individuals

Figure 13: Global DTAs and TIEAs signed with Brazil, 2015

Table 1: Brazil's DTAs as of November 2015

Table 2: Brazilian income tax rates, April-December 2015

Table 3: Brazil: total liquid wealth (USD bn) segmented by affluent category and asset band, 2009-14

Table 4: Brazil: total liquid wealth (USD bn) segmented by affluent category and asset band, 2015-19

Table 5: Brazil: adult population (000s) segmented by affluent category and asset band, 2009-14

Table 6: Brazil: adult population (000s) segmented by affluent category and asset band, 2015-19

Table 7: Brazilian real-US dollar exchange rate, December 31, 2014 and December 31, 2015

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private banking, wealth management, Brazil, investments, savings, allocation, HNW, offshore, mass affluent, mutual funds, hedge funds, FATCA, AEOI, CRS


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