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Furniture and Floorcovering Retail in the UK - Verdict Market Report

Furniture and Floorcovering Retail in the UK - Verdict Market Report


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Executive Summary

The prospects in furniture & floorcoverings are improving greatly. Consumers are more confident about their finances, housing transactions are growing quickly and pent-up demand is being released. However, threats remain. The rapid improvement in housing may be fuelling a bubble and remote retailers will take a larger market share. Specialists can not afford to ease up in developing their offer.

Key Findings

Identify how furniture & floorcoverings sub-sectors are set to perform up to 2019 and be able to adjust product mix and strategy accordingly.

Obtain a greater level of granularity with sub-sector market share for upholstery, kitchens, bedroom and living & dining.

Use exclusive Verdict consumer data to gain a better understanding of the furniture shopper and identify opportunities.

Develop strategy around the key issues which are set to impact upon the furniture & floorcoverings sector over the next five years.

Synopsis

The furniture & floorcoverings market returned to growth in 2013 and will gain greater momentum in 2014, when sales grow by 2.6%. More consumers will be in a better financial position, housing transactions will increase and shoppers will make purchases that were previously deferred. Growth peaks in 2015 as floorcoverings supports performance.

Kitchens and upholstery are two key growth sectors in 2014. Kitchen will improve as retailers invest more in their offer and more homeowners aim to develop a room which they had deferred during the downturn. Upholstery will grow on their back of store expansion, improvements to the retailer's offer and higher levels of customer demand.

Remote retailers are set to grow the fastest between 2014 and 2019 as shoppers become more comfortable about making larger purchases online. These retailers have a high rate on conversion online and if this can be maintained when higher levels of traffic visits the site, they will pose a greater threat to the larger specialists.

Reasons To Buy

Which individual furniture & floorcoverings sub-sectors are set to be the most buoyant over the next five years and what is this performance?

Which retailers are set to gain market share in 2014 and which channels in furniture & floorcoverings are set to outperform?

Which retailers do the best job of converting website visitors into buyers? How can retailers benefit from using augmented reality?

1 Outlook

1.1 Overview

1.2 Main Conclusions

1.2.1 Furniture market set to slow after a strong 2014

1.2.2 Living & dining and upholstery set to drive growth in 2015

1.2.3 Greater buoyancy in the housing market will keep momentum going

1.2.4 Specialists set to lose ground

1.2.5 Retailers are set to rely more on like-for-likes to drive growth

1.2.6 Delivery to become key battleground

2 Market Size

2.1 Overview

2.2 Market Definitions

2.3 Furniture & Floorcoverings Expenditure Trends

2.3.1 Better housing market leads to best performance in 10 years

2.3.2 Furniture & floorcoverings set to return to growth after six years of declines

2.3.3 Furniture & floorcoverings sub-sector trends

2.3.4 Furniture & floorcoverings sub sector breakdown

2.4 Furniture Expenditure

3 Market Forecast

3.1 Overview

3.2 Definitions

3.3 Summary

3.3.1 Key findings

3.3.2 Strategies for success

3.4 Furniture & Floorcoverings Expenditure Forecasts

3.4.1 Key findings

3.4.2 Volumes consistently drive growth throughout the forecast period

3.5 Furniture Expenditure Forecasts

3.6 Furniture & Floorcoverings Quarterly Expenditure Forecasts

3.6.1 Furniture & floorcoverings

3.7 Furniture & Floorcoverings Specialists' Sales

3.7.1 Key findings

3.7.2 Furniture & floorcoverings specialists

3.8 Channels of Distribution

4 Channel Shares

4.1 Overview

4.2 Channels of Distribution

4.3 Channel Forecasts

5 Market Shares

5.1 Overview

5.2 IKEA Continues to Lead the Way

5.2.1 IKEA and Oak Furniture Land streak ahead with market share gains

5.2.2 DFS dominates the upholstery market

5.2.3 Oak Furniture Land grows aggressively in the past five years

5.2.4 Beds sector remains highly fragmented

5.2.5 Wren records exceptional growth in past five years

5.3 Key Operating Statistics

5.3.1 The less buoyant kitchens market has significant impact on Magnet

5.3.2 Directory sales drive growth at Next

5.4 Space

5.4.1 Specialists actively reducing their store portfolio

5.4.2 Upholstery specialists set to continue to expand aggressively

5.4.3 New formats help drive space growth for Next

5.4.4 Dreams forges ahead in sales densities in 2014 compared to last year

6 Sector Trends

6.1 Overview

6.2 Significant Growth within Upholstery

6.2.1 Retailer results highlight resilience of upholstery

6.2.2 Future prospects for sub-sector also remain positive

6.2.3 Majority of intended purchases toward the lower end of the price spectrum

6.2.4 The north is set to buy more expensive upholstery

6.2.5 Linear trend within socioeconomic groups but C2 shoppers provide an outlier

6.2.6 Range and multichannel more important to bigger ticket upholstery shopper

6.3 Retailers Should use Augmented Reality to Drive Sales

6.3.1 More retailers are using augmented reality in their offer

6.3.2 Augmented reality can help overcome a lack of tangibility

6.3.3 A robust tablet offer is required for augmented reality to work best

6.3.4 Achieving sales must be the focus

6.4 Remote Retailers Set to Become a Greater Threat to Specialists

6.4.1 Specialists that have developed their websites are experiencing higher levels of conversion

6.4.2 However, remote retailers still have the highest levels of conversion

6.4.3 Greater levels of awareness and physical outlets will make remote retailers a far greater threat

6.4.4 A lack of tangibility is becoming less of a concern for furniture shoppers

6.5 How Would the Sector Respond to a Housing Bubble?

6.5.1 Significant uplifts in house prices increasing fears of a housing bubble

6.5.2 A burst housing bubble would impact the furniture market significantly

6.5.3 The implications for the sector would not be as severe as the last downturn

6.5.4 Margins would be under continued pressure

6.5.5 Retailers must focus on driving l-f-l sales

6.6 Product Intentions Differ by Region

6.6.1 Significant differences between regions exist with regards to intention to purchase

6.6.2 Wales and the west are above average in eight of nine sectors

6.6.3 The Midlands and north west are shying away from particular rooms

7 Methodology

7.1 Methodology: Outlook

7.1.1 Market size

7.1.2 Market shares

7.1.3 Sales density calculation

7.2 Methodology: Market Size

7.2.1 Market size

7.2.2 Market shares

7.3 Methodology: Market Forecast

7.4 Methodology: Channel Shares

7.4.1 Channel shares

7.5 Methodology: Market Shares

7.5.1 Definitions Current

7.6 Methodology: Sector Trends

7.6.1 Market size

7.6.2 Market shares

8 Appendix

8.1 Appendix: Market Size

8.2 Appendix: Market Forecast

8.3 About Verdict Retail

8.4 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e

Figure 2: Sources of growth in furniture & floorcoverings (%), 2005-15e

Figure 3: Furniture & floorcoverings sub-sector growth (%), 2005-15e

Figure 4: Furniture & floorcoverings sub sector shares (%), 2005, 2010 and 2015e

Figure 5: Furniture expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e

Figure 6: Sources of growth in furniture (%), 2005-15e

Figure 7: Furniture category share of furniture market (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 8: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure as a proportion of total retail (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 9: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (GBPm), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 10: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 11: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure drivers of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 12: Change in furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 13: Change in furniture expenditure by category (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 14: Furniture expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 15: Furniture sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 16: Upholstery expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 17: Upholstery expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 18: Beds and bedroom furniture expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 19: Beds and bedroom furniture expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 20: Kitchen expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 21: Kitchen expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 22: Living and dining expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 23: Living and dining expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 24: Home office expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 25: Home office expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 26: Bathroom expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 27: Bathroom expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 28: Other expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 29: Other expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 30: Furniture & floorcoverings sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 31: Furniture & floorcoverings versus total retail year-on-year growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 32: Furniture sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 33: Furniture versus furniture & floorcoverings year-on-year growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 34: Total furniture & floorcoverings specialists' sales (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 35: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists' sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 36: Change in sales at constant and current prices among furniture & floorcoverings specialists (%), 2010-20e

Figure 37: Furniture specialists' sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 38: Change in sales at constant and current prices among furniture specialists (%), 2010-20e

Figure 39: Furniture specialists' store numbers and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 40: Furniture specialists' sales densities (GBP/sq ft) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 41: Change in share of the major channels in the furniture market (percentage points), 2020e on 2015e

Figure 42: Change in furniture market share (percentage points), 2015e on 2010

Figure 43: Change in retailer share of furniture market (percentage points), 2015e on 2010

Figure 44: Change in furniture market shares (percentage point), 2015e on 2014

Figure 45: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' change in sales (%), 2014-15e

Figure 46: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' change in sales (%), 2010-15e

Figure 47: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' space growth (%), 2014-15e

Figure 48: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' space growth (%), 2010-15e

Figure 49: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' change in sales densities (%), 2014-15e

Figure 50: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' change in sales densities (%), 2010-15e

Figure 51: Which items of furniture do you intend to purchase in the next year (%)?

Figure 52: Breakdown of prospective budget for those planning to buy a new sofa

Figure 53: Penetration of sofa shoppers with a budget of over GBP1,000 by socioeconomic group

Figure 54: Intention to purchase within the next year by region, against the national average

Table 1: Furniture & floorcoverings market definitions, 2015

Table 2: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure sources of growth (%), 2005-15e

Table 3: Furniture & floorcoverings category breakdown (GBPm), 2010, 2014 and 2015e

Table 4: Furniture expenditure (GBPm), 2005-15e

Table 5: Breakdown of consumer spend on furniture products (GBPm), 2010-15e

Table 6: Furniture & floorcoverings products definitions, 2015

Table 7: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure, inflation, volume and value, 2015e-20e

Table 8: Furniture expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 9: Upholstery expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 10: Beds and bedroom furniture expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 11: Kitchen expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 12: Living and dining expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 13: Home office expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 14: Bathroom expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 15: Other expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 16: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure (GBPm) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Table 17: Furniture expenditure (GBPm) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Table 18: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists' expenditure, 2010-20e

Table 19: Sources of growth at furniture & floorcoverings specialists (%), 2010-20e

Table 20: Furniture specialists' expenditure, 2010-20e

Table 21: Sources of growth at furniture specialists (%), 2010-20e

Table 22: Furniture channels of distribution (%), 2015e-20e

Table 23: Furniture market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 24: Furniture channels of distribution (GBPm) and market share (%), 2011-15e

Table 25: Furniture channels of distribution (GBPm) and market share (%), 2015e-20e

Table 26: Share of the total market held by furniture retailers (%), 2010-15e

Table 27: Share of the upholstery market (%), 2010-15e

Table 28: Share of the living/dining room market (%), 2010-15e

Table 29: Share of the beds and bedroom furniture market (%), 2010-15e

Table 30: Share of the kitchen market (%), 2010-15e

Table 31: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' key operating statistics, 2013/14

Table 32: Leading furniture & floorcoverings retailers' store portfolio, 2013/14

Table 33: Top 10 retailers by online conversion for furniture & floorcoverings, April 2014

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