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Gardening Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report

Gardening Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report

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Executive Summary

In 2014, the gardening sector will achieve its strongest growth since 2009, increasing by 6.8%. This growth will be driven by the better weather we had over the spring, which encouraged people to spend more time and money on their gardens. Homeowners seeing their garden as an extra room has also supported the sector, with greenstock and growing media & outdoor living performing strongly in 2014.

Key Findings

Gardening market shares from 2009 to 2014 as well as channel shares up to 2019

Offers an in-depth analysis of how the market has done, both at an overall and sub-sector level, to enable retailers to benchmark their performance.

Analysis of exclusive data from Verdict's e-retail survey to provide retailers with the competitive edge in this fledgling channel.


While growth in gardening will slow in 2015, against a tough comparative, we forecast that gardening sales will grow by 13.7% between 2014 and 2019 with greenstock & growing media being one of the best performing sub-sectors. This is largely due to the frequency of purchase, as shoppers replace plants which died away in the past 12 months.

For online to gain greater traction in gardening, retailers must ensure a consistently high experience across all channels, that they track their competitors, and offer a more delivery options. Online gardening shoppers are more open to receiving deliveries away from their homes & conduct more pre-purchase research across multiple channels.

Despite having a poor Q2, its exceptionally strong Q1 will support B&Q and we forecast that it will stay top of the gardening market in 2014. Its scale and large store network provides shoppers with strong price and convenience credentials. Wyevale will gain the most share in 2014, boosted by acquiring Garden & Leisure in 2013.

Reasons To Buy

How will the different sub-sectors perform over the next five years?

How can retailers use online to improve their sales performance?

Which channels are set to become a greater threat in the gardening market over the next five years?

1 Outlook

1.1 Overview

1.2 Main Conclusions

1.2.1 Gardening sector experiences its strongest sales growth rate since 2009

1.2.2 Outdoor living and greenstock and growing media are driving growth in 2014

1.2.3 Gardening to experience consistent growth over the next five years

1.2.4 Non-specialists like John Lewis and Next will be the strongest performing channel up to 2019

1.2.5 Multichannel is pivotal for satisfying online gardening shoppers

1.2.6 Online gardening shoppers are more open to non-home delivery

1.2.7 Despite declining in 2014, B&Q still holds biggest share

2 Recommendations

2.1 Overview

2.2 Retailer Strategies

2.2.1 Drive sales through online

2.2.2 Garden centres must further weatherproof their offer

2.2.3 Capitalise on new store openings near you

3 Market Size

3.1 Overview

3.2 Definitions

3.2.1 Expenditure Trends

4 Market Forecast

4.1 Overview

4.2 Definitions

4.3 Summary

4.4 DIY & Gardening Expenditure Forecasts

4.4.1 Key findings

4.4.2 Return to form after three years of declines

4.5 Gardening Expenditure Forecasts

4.5.1 Gardening

4.5.2 Greenstock and growing media

4.5.3 Garden structures

4.5.4 Outdoor living

4.5.5 Gardening tools

4.5.6 Garden utensils

4.6 DIY & Gardening Quarterly Expenditure Forecasts

4.6.1 2014

4.6.2 2015 and 2016

4.6.3 2017

4.7 Gardening Quarterly Expenditure Forecasts

4.8 DIY & Gardening Specialists' Sales

4.8.1 Key findings

5 Channel Shares

5.1 Overview

5.2 Channels of Distribution

5.2.1 Other and value retailers set to achieve strongest growth in gardening

6 Market Shares

6.1 Overview

6.2 B&Q Remains Top

6.2.1 Market shares

6.2.2 Winners and losers

6.2.3 Major competitors

6.2.4 Sales growth driven by physical expansion as all but Argos increase space

7 Sector Trends

7.1 Overview

7.2 Multichannel and Delivery Key Elements Driving Gardening Online

7.3 Implications of Garden Centres Sharing Sites

7.4 Concessions: an Increasingly Important Footfall Driver

7.5 Next, IKEA and Waitrose to Take a Greater Share

8 Methodology

8.1 Methodology: Outlook

8.2 Methodology: Recommendations

8.3 Methodology: Market Size

8.4 Methodology: Market Forecast

8.5 Methodology: Channel Shares

8.6 Methodology: Market Shares

8.7 Methodology: Sector Trends

9 Appendix

9.1 Appendix: Outlook

9.2 Appendix: Recommendations

9.3 Appendix: Market Size

9.4 Appendix: Market Forecast

9.5 Appendix: Channel Shares

9.6 Appendix: Market Shares

9.7 Appendix: Sector Trends

9.8 About Verdict Retail

9.9 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Gardening expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-15e

Figure 2: Gardening expenditure drivers of growth (%), 2005-15e

Figure 3: Change in gardening expenditure (%), 2010-15e

Figure 4: DIY & gardening expenditure as a proportion of total retail (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 5: DIY & gardening expenditure (GBPm), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 6: DIY & gardening expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 7: DIY & gardening expenditure drivers of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 8: Change in gardening expenditure by category (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 9: Gardening expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 10: Gardening sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 11: Greenstock and growing media expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 12: Greenstock and growing media expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 13: Garden structures expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 14: Garden structures expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 15: Outdoor living expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 16: Outdoor living expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 17: Gardening tools expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 18: Gardeningtoolsexpendituregrowth(%),2015e-20e

Figure 19: Garden utensils expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 20: Garden utensils expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 21: DIY & gardening sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 22: DIY & gardening versus total retail year-on-year growth (%), quarterly, 2014-16e

Figure 23: Gardening sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 24: Gardening versus DIY & gardening year-on-year growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 25: DIY & gardening specialists' sales (GBPm) and growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 26: DIY specialists' store numbers and growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 27: DIY specialists' selling space (000 sq ft) and growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 28: DIY specialists' sales densities at current prices (GBP/sq ft) and growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 29: Change in share of the major channels in the DIY & gardening market (percentage points), 2020e on 2015e

Figure 30: UK gardening channel summary, 2014-19e

Figure 31: UK gardening channel shares (%), 2013, 2014e and 2019e

Figure 32: UK gardening channel expenditure growth (%), 2019e on 2014

Figure 33: UK gardening change in channel share (percentage point), 2014-19e

Figure 34: Gardening market shares (%), 2014e vs 2009

Figure 35: UK gardening Top 12 winners and losers (percentage point change), 2014e on 2013

Figure 36: UK gardening Top 12 y-o-y change in sales and space (%), 2013/14 on 2012/13

Figure 37: UK gardening Top 12 y-o-y change in total sales density (%), 2013/14 on 2012/13

Figure 38: Profile of online gardening shopper split by demographic (%), March 2014

Figure 39: Pre-purchase research tendencies, March 2014

Figure 40: Percentage of online gardening shoppers who visit competitors prior to purchase, March 2014

Figure 41: Top seven reasons for buying online among gardening shoppers (%), March 2014

Figure 42: Delivery preferences of online gardening shoppers against the average online shopper (%), March 2014

Figure 43: Percentage of online shoppers who were very satisfied with stages of purchase (%), March 2014

Figure 44: Top six areas that make shoppers return to a website (%), March 2014

Figure 45: Proposed development between Waitrose and Van Hage garden centre in Hertfordshire, February 2014

Figure 46: IKEA garden furniture advert, 2013

Figure 47: Artist's impression of the proposed Next Home and Garden store in Sheffield, 2013

Table 1: Gardening market definition, 2015

Table 2: Gardening expenditure, inflation, volume and value, 2010-15e

Table 3: Breakdown of consumer spend on gardening products (GBPm), 2010-15e

Table 4: DIY & gardening specialists definitions, 2015

Table 5: DIY & gardening product definitions, 2015

Table 6: DIY & gardening expenditure, inflation, volume and value, 2015e-20e

Table 7: Gardening expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 8: Greenstock and growing media expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 9: Garden structures expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 10: Outdoor living expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 11: Gardening tools expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 12: Garden utensils expenditure, change in value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 13: DIY & gardening expenditure (GBPm) and growth (%), quarterly, 2014-17e

Table 14: Gardening expenditure (GBPm) and growth (%), quarterly, 2014-17e

Table 15: DIY & gardening specialists' expenditure (%), 2010-20e

Table 16: Sources of growth at DIY & gardening specialists (%), 2010-20e

Table 17: DIY & gardening channels of distribution (%), 2015e-20e

Table 18: Gardening market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 19: UK gardening channels of distribution expenditure (GBPm) and share (%), 2013, 2014e and 2019e

Table 20: Gardening market shares (%), 2009-14e

Table 21: UK gardening Top 12 key operating statistics, 2012-14

Table 22: UK gardening Top 12 store portfolios, 2012/13

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