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Clothing in Europe | Verdict Sector Report

Clothing in Europe | Verdict Sector Report


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Executive Summary

With growth of just 3.1% in the five years to 2014, the recovery of the EU28 clothing market has been slow over the last two years, despite the economy starting to show signs of improvement. The market will take 10 years to 2017 to recover fully, so it is essential that retailers seize growth opportunities and seek out gaps in the market to steal their share of the limited spend available.

Key Findings

Make informed investment decisions using clothing expenditure forecasts to 2019 for every European Union member state.

Understand how economic pressures such as unemployment are affecting clothing expenditure, in order to shape future strategy.

Discover the size of the European online clothing market and understand which markets to target in order to prioritize investment.

Uncover the gaps in the European clothing market to see which customer segments are currently underserved and which to target.

Glean how the value clothing market in Europe has changed over the past five years and learn how it differs among the Top 5 markets in the region.

Synopsis

Of all the 28 markets in the region, we expect Poland to achieve the highest growth between 2014 and 2019, with clothing expenditure growing by 26.6% though this is only a rise of Euro2.0bn so its overall impact on the market remains fairly minimal.

The European online clothing market will grow 134.0% in the five years to 2014, as spend shifts online from more traditional channels such as stores and catalogues. With only 12.0% of expenditure coming from online in 2014, the channel still represents a major opportunity for retailers.

The unemployment rate across the EU28 has grown from 7.1% in 2008 to 10.9% in 2013. This has hit consumer ability and willingness to spend on clothing, with the impact felt most strongly in Greece and Spain. However value retailers have prospered from shoppers trading down in weaker markets, enabling further store rollout from the likes of Primark.

Reasons To Buy

Which countries in the European market are the most attractive for clothing retailers?

How big is the European online clothing market and where do the opportunities lie?

How does consumers social media activity differ by country in Europe? How can you adapt your social media strategy to best suit local markets?

How has the value clothing market in Europe changed over the past five years and what does the market hold in the next five years?

1 Outlook

1.1 Overview

1.2 Main Conclusions

1.2.1 Market grows by Euro8.6bn between 2009 and 2014-a 3.1% increase in clothing expenditure

1.2.2 Market forecast to rebound in 2014, though growth is weaker without the UK impact

1.2.3 Three of the Top Five see their share of the market dwindle

1.2.4 High levels of unemployment impact expenditure but benefit value players

1.2.5 We forecast EU28 clothing spend to grow by 14.2% in five years to 2019

1.2.6 Clothing expenditure growth in Poland is the highest of all EU28 markets

1.2.7 European online clothing market to exceed Euro34bn in 2014

1.2.8 Value clothing market grows by Euro20.3bn between 2009 and 2014

1.2.9 Social media remains top priority for retailers to drive online traffic and loyalty

1.2.10 Top Five clothing players all grow share in past five years

2 Recommendations

2.1 Overview

2.2 Growth Opportunities must be Seized as Competition Intensifies

2.2.1 Germany, the UK and Poland present opportunities for retailers

2.2.2 Value retailers must satisfy a very broad customer base

2.2.3 Retailers must drive multichannel spend as online market growth outstrips total clothing

2.2.4 Utilise social media to better engage shoppers

3 Market Size

3.1 Overview

3.2 EU28 Economy

3.2.1 Summary

3.2.2 GDP

3.2.3 Unemployment

3.2.4 Inflation

3.2.5 Population

3.3 Clothing Market Definition

3.4 Spend on Clothing Grows by Euro8.6bn

3.4.1 European clothing expenditure to reach Euro284.8bn in 2014

3.4.2 Of the Top Five, only Germany and the UK grow share of the EU28 clothing market

3.4.3 Spend per head

3.5 Clothing Market in France

3.5.1 Clothing market expenditure

3.5.2 Recent key events

3.5.3 Outlook

3.6 Clothing Market in Germany

3.6.1 Clothing market expenditure

3.6.2 Recent key events

3.6.3 Outlook

3.7 Clothing Market in Italy

3.7.1 Clothing market expenditure

3.7.2 Recent key events

3.7.3 Outlook

3.8 Clothing Market in Spain

3.8.1 Clothing market expenditure

3.8.2 Recent key events

3.8.3 Outlook

3.9 Clothing Market in the UK

3.9.1 Clothing market expenditure

3.9.2 Recent key events

3.9.3 Outlook

4 Market Forecast

4.1 Overview

4.2 EU28 Clothing Market to Exceed Euro325bn in 2019

4.2.1 On-going recovery in economy bodes well for clothing market

4.2.2 Recovery in clothing expenditure has taken a decade

4.2.3 Poland, Baltic States and the UK have most growth potential over next five years

4.2.4 The UK to achieve highest growth of Top Five clothing markets

4.2.5 Poland is the star performer of the European clothing market

4.2.6 Aided by economic stability, Baltic States are forecast to outperform the market

4.2.7 Slower growth forecast for troubled economies of Cyprus, Greece, Portugal and Spain

5 Market Shares

5.1 Overview

5.2 Top Five Grow Share Between 2009 and 2014

6 Sector Trends

6.1 Overview

6.2 Country Attractiveness

6.2.1 Poland, Czech Republic and Romania provide retailers with significant growth opportunities

6.2.2 Top markets to target 2014-19

6.3 Online Clothing Market

6.3.1 Online channel grows 134.0% between 2009 and 2014 as consumers shift spend from stores

6.3.2 UK is the Top Five market where the online channel holds the largest share of the clothing market, at 16.3%

6.3.3 Germany takes 26.0% of total European online clothing sales in 2014

6.4 Value Clothing Market

6.4.1 H&M, TK Maxx and Primark have been star players, but adaptation is required to drive future growth

6.4.2 70.6% of value clothing expenditure will be derived from Europes Top Five clothing markets in 2014

6.4.3 Value clothing market to grow by 21.6% in five years to 2019

6.5 Social Media

6.5.1 Social media remains top priority for retailers to drive online traffic and loyalty

6.5.2 Retailers with a presence in Poland, Spain and Italy must create tailored social media accounts

6.5.3 Consumers in Spain use micro-blogging sites the most to follow brand news

6.5.4 Social networking sites are most popular when reviewing products, though they fail to drive sales

6.5.5 Consumers across Europe are more likely to follow brand news on blogs rather than post reviews

6.5.6 Potential for more retailers to use picture sharing sites as a marketing tool

7 Methodology

7.1 Methodology: Outlook

7.2 Methodology: Market Size

7.3 Methodology: Market Forecast

7.3.1 Market size

7.3.2 Market forecast

7.4 Methodology: Sector Trends

8 Appendix

8.1 About Verdict Retail

8.2 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Economic summary for EU27, 2008 and 2013Sample Figure

Figure 2: GDP growth (%) and unemployment rate (%) for largest EU28 economies, 2014e Sample Figure

Figure 3: Average real GDP growth (%) for EU27, 2004-14e

Figure 4: Average real GDP growth (%) by country, 2013 and 2014e

Figure 5: Average unemployment rate (%) for EU27, 2004-14e

Figure 6: Average unemployment rates (%) by country, 2009 and 2014e

Figure 7: EU27 average inflation by Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), 2008-13

Figure 8: HICP inflation in EU countries, 2012 and 2013

Figure 9: Total EU27 population (millions), 2009-14e

Figure 10: Total EU28 population (millions), 2010 and forecast to 2040

Figure 11: Population 10-year change (%) for EU27 countries, 2020 on 2010

Figure 12: EU28 clothing expenditure (Eurobn) and y-o-y growth (%), 2009-14e

Figure 13: EU27 (UK omitted) clothing expenditure (Eurobn) and y-o-y growth (%), 2009-14e

Figure 14: Share of Top 10 markets in EU28 clothing market (%), 2014

Figure 15: Top Five country shares of the European clothing market (%), 2009 and 2014e

Figure 16: Clothing spend per head growth (%) by country, 2014e on 2009

Figure 17: Clothing market in France, 2014e

Figure 18: Clothing market in Germany, 2014e

Figure 19: Uniqlo Berlin, 2014

Figure 20: Clothing market in Italy, 2014e

Figure 21: Inditex new store openings in Orio Center Bergamo Italy, 2014

Figure 22: Clothing market in Spain, 2014e

Figure 23: Clothing market in the UK, 2014e

Figure 24: EU28 clothing expenditure (Eurobn), 2014e-19e

Figure 25: Clothing expenditure growth by country (%), 2014e-19e

Figure 26: Positioning map of European clothing retailers, 2014

Figure 27: Market shares of top five European clothing players (%), 2009 and 2014e

Figure 28: Winners and losers in top five European clothing players (percentage points), 2014e on 2009

Figure 29: Country share of EU28 clothing market, 2014e and five year outlook

Figure 30: Top Five markets to target, 2014-19

Figure 31: European online clothing expenditure (Eurobn), 2009, 2014e and 2019e

Figure 32: Top Five European markets share of online expenditure (Eurobn), 2014e

Figure 33: Online share of clothing market for top clothing markets (Eurobn), 2014e

Figure 34: Online expenditure in Top Five clothing markets (Eurobn), 2009, 2014e and 2019e

Figure 35: EU28 value clothing expenditure (Eurobn), 2009 and 2014e

Figure 36: C&A store, Prague Diamant, April 2014

Figure 37: Top Five European markets share of value clothing expenditure (Eurobn), 2014e

Figure 38: EU28 value clothing expenditure (Eurobn), 2009, 2014e and 2019e

Figure 39: Express fashion, 2014

Figure 40: Social media usage across Europe for following brand news and updates (%), 2014

Figure 41: Average online activity on micro-blogging sites across Europe (%), 2014

Figure 42: Nelly.coms twitter profile, 2014

Figure 43: Average online activity on social networking sites across Europe (%), 2014

Figure 44: Activity on Facebook in the UK (%), 2014

Figure 45: Average online activity on blogs and forums across Europe (%), 2014

Figure 46: Average online activity on picture sharing sites across Europe (%), 2014

Figure 47: MyTheresas Instagram profile, 2014

Table 1: Clothing market definition, 2014

Table 2: Clothing spend by country (Eurobn), 2009-14e

Table 3: Clothing spend by country (Eurobn), 2014e and 2019e

Table 4: Online clothing expenditure in Europe, 2009, 2014e and 2019e

Table 5: Value clothing expenditure in Europe (Eurobn), 2009, 2014e and 2019e

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