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Footwear Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report

Footwear Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report


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Executive Summary

Higher disposable incomes due to wage growth recovery, combined with a rise in consumer confidence, will drive discretionary purchases and volumes in 2014, while better trend adaptation from the catwalks will drive shoppers to buy more on-trend footwear styles, aiding expenditure growth of 2.6%.

Key Findings

Provides data and insight on market size, sales and growth rates for footwear overall and by channel, helping to identify growth opportunities.

Provides expenditure breakdown across the value, midmarket and premium footwear sectors highlighting the areas which offer the most growth potential.

Forecasts expenditure and spend per head for women's, men's and children's footwear to 2019, highlighting the sectors with the most growth potential

Footwear expenditure forecast to 2019 and analysis of volume growth and inflation, aiding future planning and strategising

Market issues are examined: consumer demographic analysis, online growth prospects, niche product opportunities and drivers of children's footwear.

Synopsis

2014 has seen a conscious effort from retailers to introduce more transeasonal footwear to prevent a repeat of 2013's poor performance, which was impacted by unseasonable weather. Being proactive in adapting product ranges is key, while reacting to short-term changes in the weather through marketing is also vital to better suit consumer needs.

Consumers will place quality, comfort and style over price as loyalty drivers and will trade back up to the midmarket and premium brands they love, aiding these segments of the market to grow by a total of GBP917m in the next five years to 2019.

The UK online footwear market is forecast to grow by 156.9% in the five years to 2014, as spend shifts from more traditional shopping methods and multichannel retailers such as Schuh, Office and Next continue to invest in their platforms and increase footwear product availability online.

Reasons To Buy

What is driving women's spend in footwear and how can I increase sales in men's shoes? What impact will value players have on children's footwear?

What challenges do footwear specialists face from clothing retailers and sportswear players? How can they protect their place in the market?

Which retailers will gain the most market share in 2014, and who are expected to be the greatest share losers and why?

How can I defy unpredictable weather to maintain spend, and which players have started to invest in transeasonal footwear ranges?

What proportion of footwear sales will come from the online channel in 2014? What must value players do to further capitalise on this growing channel?

1 Outlook

1.1 Overview

1.2 Main Conclusions

1.2.1 Footwear expenditure grows by GBP217m in 2015

1.2.2 Inflation sticks around due to high leather costs

1.2.3 UK footwear market to grow 18.1% in the next five years

1.2.4 Potential exists to increase spend from 16-24s

1.2.5 Online footwear sales to rise 82% in next five years

1.2.6 Clarks, M&S and New Look lead wide fit footwear market

1.2.7 Demand for comfort footwear isn't limited to 55+s

1.2.8 Sports players and brands must protect footwear share from rising non-specialists

1.2.9 Transeasonal footwear essential to combat unpredictable UK weather

1.2.10 Market leader Clarks continues to lose market share

2 Recommendations

2.1 Overview

2.2 Retailer Strategies

2.2.1 Target consumers based on age-specific needs

2.2.2 Understand shopping habits and drive purchase frequency

2.2.3 Retailer recommendations

2.2.4 Jump on the wide fit footwear bandwagon

2.2.5 Satisfy growing needs for comfort footwear

2.2.6 Capitalise on growing consumer awareness around fitness

2.2.7 Understand online customer journey and shopping habits

2.2.8 Defy unpredictable weather through transeasonal product

3 Market Size

3.1 Overview

3.2 Market Definition

3.3 Expenditure Trends

3.4 Subsector Expenditure Trends

3.4.1 Women's footwear continues to drive the market

3.5 Age Segmentation

3.6 Spend per Head

4 Market Forecast

4.1 Overview

4.2 Summary

4.2.1 Key findings

4.2.2 Drivers and inhibitors

4.2.3 Strategies for success

4.3 Clothing & Footwear Expenditure Forecasts

4.4 Footwear Expenditure Forecasts

4.4.1 Key findings

4.4.2 Total footwear

4.4.3 Subsector breakdown

4.5 Footwear Specialists' Sales

4.5.1 Key findings

4.5.2 Summary

4.5.3 Sales

4.5.4 Sources of growth

4.5.5 Space

4.5.6 Sales densities

4.6 Quarterly Expenditure Forecasts

4.6.1 Key findings

4.6.2 Clothing & footwear

4.6.3 Footwear

4.7 Age Segmentation

4.8 Spend per Head

4.8.1 Total footwear

4.8.2 Men's footwear

4.8.3 Women's footwear

5 Channel Shares

5.1 Overview

5.2 Channel Breakdown

5.3 Online Channel Share

6 Market Shares

6.1 Overview

6.2 Footwear Market Shares

6.3 Footwear specialists

6.4 Clothing specialists

6.5 Sportswear specialists

6.6 Other channels

6.7 Winners and Losers

6.8 Key Operating Statistics

7 Sector Trends

7.1 Overview

7.2 Wide Fit Footwear

7.2.1 Headlines

7.2.2 Wide fit footwear definition

7.2.3 Wide fit footwear expenditure

7.2.4 Retailer market shares

7.2.5 Wide fit consumer shopping habits

7.3 Comfort Footwear

7.3.1 Comfort footwear definition

7.3.2 Comfort footwear consumer shopping habits

7.3.3 Shopping behaviours

7.3.4 Drivers of spend

7.3.5 Shopped retailers

7.4 Sports Footwear

7.4.1 Rising awareness around fitness

7.4.2 Sports specialists

7.4.3 Sports non-specialists

7.5 Footwear Shopper Profile and Spending Habits

7.5.1 Shopper penetration and profile

7.5.2 Drivers of spend

7.5.3 Spending habits by gender

7.5.4 Shopping habits by age segmentation

7.6 Preferred Footwear Destinations

7.6.1 Clarks most bought from footwear retailer

7.6.2 Casual footwear

7.6.3 Men's preferred casual footwear destinations

7.6.4 Women's preferred casual footwear destinations

7.6.5 Formal footwear

7.6.6 Men's preferred formal footwear destinations

7.6.7 Women's preferred formal footwear destinations

7.7 Online Shopper Profile and Journey

7.7.1 Key findings

7.7.2 Online footwear market

7.7.3 Online footwear retail spend index

7.7.4 Shopper profile

7.7.5 Footwear online shopping journey

7.8 Transeasonal Ranges Vital for Footwear Retailers

7.9 Drivers of Spend on Children's Footwear

8 Methodology

8.1 Methodology: Outlook

8.2 Methodology: Market Size

8.2.1 Market size

8.2.2 Market shares

8.2.3 Price segmentation

8.3 Methodology: Market Forecast

8.3.1 Market size

8.3.2 Market shares

8.3.3 Sales densities

8.3.4 Price segmentation

8.4 Methodology: Channel Shares

8.4.1 Channel definitions

8.4.2 Channel shares calculation

8.5 Methodology: Market Shares

8.6 Methodology: Sector Trends

8.6.1 Market size

8.6.2 Market shares

9 Appendix

9.1 Appendix: Outlook

9.2 Appendix: Market Size

9.3 Appendix: Market Forecast

9.3.1 Definitions

9.3.2 About Verdict Retail

9.3.3 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Footwear expenditure (GBPbn) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e

Figure 2: Schuh online seasonal promotions and delivery options, October 2015

Figure 3: Footwear inflation/deflation, volume and value growth (%), 2005-15e

Figure 4: New Look Premium collection options, October 2015

Figure 5: Footwear subsector growth rates (%), 2010-15e

Figure 6: Kurt Geiger 'Be Inspired' page providing outfit building suggestions and celebrity sightings of footwear, October 2015

Figure 7: Nike advertising new reflective footwear ranges for running, October 2015

Figure 8: Footwear expenditure broken down by age group (GBPm), 2015e

Figure 9: Footwear spend per head (GBP), 2010-15e

Figure 10: Footwear spend per head by age group (GBP), 2015e

Figure 11: Clothing & footwear expenditure as a proportion of total retail (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 12: Clothing & footwear expenditure (GBPm), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 13: Clothing & footwear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 14: Clothing & footwear expenditure drivers of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 15: Change in clothing & footwear expenditure (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 16: Footwear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 17: Footwear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 18: Footwear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 19: Footwear subsector growth rates (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 20: Footwear specialists' sales growth in current and constant prices (%), 2010-20e

Figure 21: Footwear specialists' sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 22: Footwear specialists' store numbers (000) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 23: Footwear specialists' space (million sq ft) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 24: Footwear specialists' sales densities at current prices (GBP/sq ft) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 25: Footwear specialists' sales densities at constant prices (GBP/sq ft) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 26: Clothing & footwear sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 27: Clothing & footwear versus total retail year-on-year change (%), quarterly, 2012-16e

Figure 28: Footwear sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 29: Footwear versus clothing & footwear year-on-year change (%), quarterly, 2012-16e

Figure 30: Footwear expenditure broken down by age group (GBPm), 2015e

Figure 31: Footwear spend per head forecast (GBP), 2015e-20e

Figure 32: Footwear spend per head by age group (GBP), 2015e

Figure 33: Clarks women's footwear ranges and example of 'cloud stepper' range, October 2015

Figure 34: Men's footwear spend per head forecast (GBP), 2015e-20e

Figure 35: Women's footwear spend per head forecast (GBP), 2015e-20e

Figure 36: Changes in share of major channels in footwear (percentage points), 2020e on 2015e

Figure 37: Retail channels' share of footwear market (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 38: Online share of the footwear market (GBPbn), 2014, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 39: Clarks' Orla Kiely collaboration and new footwear ranges, October 2015

Figure 40: Footwear top 15 market shares (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 41: Key footwear retailers' change in market share (percentage points), 2015e on 2010

Figure 42: Footwear top 15 UK space growth versus sales growth (%), 2015/16e

Figure 43: Women's typical footwear size guide

Figure 44: Men's typical footwear size guide

Figure 45: Wide fit footwear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 46: Wide fit footwear share of adult UK footwear market (%), 2010, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 47: Wide fit footwear expenditure gender breakdown (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 48: Wide fit footwear spend per head (GBP), 2015e-20e

Figure 49: Footwear spend per head variances (GBP), 2015e

Figure 50: Wide fit footwear retailer market shares (%), 2015e

Figure 51: Strengths of wide fit leading players, 2015

Figure 52: Penetration of wide fit shoppers by gender and age group (%), 2015

Figure 53: Penetration of female wide fit shoppers by age group (%), 2015

Figure 54: Penetration of male wide fit shoppers by age group (%), 2015

Figure 55: Wide fit shopper profile versus core footwear shopper profile (%), 2015

Figure 56: Percentage of consumers willing to spend more on wide fit footwear than regular footwear (%), 2015

Figure 57: Percentage of consumers willing to spend more on a pair of wide fit shoes than regular shoes by gender and age group (%), 2015

Figure 58: Wide fit shopper preferences and retailer recommendations, 2015

Figure 59: Most important drivers of spend for wide fit footwear shoppers and total footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 60: Percentage of consumers shopping the top retailers for wide fit footwear (%), 2015e

Figure 61: Percentage of consumers who do most of their wide fit footwear shopping at the top retailers (%), 2015e

Figure 62: Penetration of comfort footwear shoppers by gender and age group (%), 2015

Figure 63: Penetration of female comfort footwear shoppers by age group (%), 2015

Figure 64: Penetration of male comfort footwear shoppers by age group (%), 2015

Figure 65: Penetration of male comfort footwear shoppers by age group (%), 2015

Figure 66: Retailers investing in creating more stylish comfort footwear, 2015

Figure 67: Percentage of consumers willing to spend more on comfort footwear than regular footwear (%), 2015

Figure 68: Percentage of consumers willing to spend more on a pair of comfort shoes than regular shoes, by age group (%), 2015

Figure 69: Comfort footwear shopper preferences and retailer recommendations, 2015

Figure 70: Most important drivers of spend for comfort footwear shoppers and total footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 71: Percentage of consumers shopping the top retailers for comfort footwear (%), 2015e

Figure 72: Percentage of consumers who do most of their comfort footwear shopping at the top retailers (%), 2015e

Figure 73: Clarks' comfort footwear offer, 2015

Figure 74: Sports footwear shoppers that participate in regular sport/exercise (%), 2015

Figure 75: Sport England's 'This Girl Can' campaign, 2015

Figure 76: Ellie Goulding and Jessica Alba sharing 'gym selfies' on Instagram, 2015

Figure 77: Where footwear shoppers have shopped for sports footwear in the last 12 months (%), 2015

Figure 78: Where footwear shoppers have shopped for sports footwear in the last 12 months (%), 2015

Figure 79: NIKEiD offering customisation for trainers, 2015

Figure 80: Reebok Fithub Covent Garden, 2015

Figure 81: Attitudes toward sports footwear brand by gender and age (%), 2015

Figure 82: Stella McCartney for Adidas, 2015

Figure 83: Attitudes toward sports footwear product features by gender and age (%), 2015

Figure 84: Clarks' sports footwear range, with minimal explanation regarding technical qualities, 2015

Figure 85: Percentage of consumers who shop for footwear by demographics (%), 2015

Figure 86: Profile of footwear shoppers by gender, age and socioeconomic group (%), 2015

Figure 87: Footwear shopper profile versus clothing shopper profile by socioeconomic group (%), 2015

Figure 88: Footwear shopper profile versus clothing shopper profile by age (%), 2015

Figure 89: Frequency of footwear shopping trips versus clothing shopping trips (%), 2015

Figure 90: Channels used in the last year by footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 91: Top 10 drivers of footwear spend by gender (%), 2015

Figure 92: Top 10 drivers of footwear spend by age (%), 2015

Figure 93: Female footwear shopping preferences (%), 2015

Figure 94: Male footwear shopping preferences (%), 2015

Figure 95: Footwear shoppers who said the following promotions would encourage them to spend more on footwear (%), 2015

Figure 96: Impulse versus considered footwear purchases by age (%), 2015

Figure 97: Footwear market segmentation by age and gender, 2015

Figure 98: Footwear spend and habits of 16-24s, 2015

Figure 99: Footwear spend and habits of 25-34s, 2015

Figure 100: Footwear spend and habits of 35-44s, 2015

Figure 101: Footwear spend and habits of 45-54s, 2015

Figure 102: Footwear spend and habits of 55-64s, 2015

Figure 103: Footwear spend and habits of 65+s, 2015

Figure 104: Percentage of footwear shoppers visiting the top 10 retailers (%), 2015

Figure 105: Percentage of footwear shoppers purchasing from the top 10 retailers (%), 2015

Figure 106: Top 10 retailers' conversion rate for footwear (%), 2015

Figure 107: Percentage of footwear shoppers who shopped for casual footwear at the retailer over the last 12 months (%), 2015

Figure 108: Top 15 most bought from casual footwear retailers (%), 2015

Figure 109: Casual footwear retailers preferred by 16-44 male footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 110: Casual footwear retailers preferred by 45+ male footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 111: Casual footwear retailers preferred by 16-44 female footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 112: Casual footwear retailers preferred by 45+ female footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 113: Percentage of footwear shoppers who shopped for formal footwear at the retailer over the last 12 months (%), 2015

Figure 114: Most bought from formal footwear retailers (%), 2015

Figure 115: Formal footwear retailers preferred by 16-44 male footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 116: Formal footwear retailers preferred by 45+ male footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 117: Formal footwear retailers preferred by 16-44 female footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 118: Formal footwear retailers preferred by 45+ female footwear shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 119: Characteristics of the UK online footwear market, 2014

Figure 120: Online footwear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 121: Online share of the footwear market (%), 2010, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 122: Online footwear retail spend index, March to September 2015

Figure 123: Penetration of online clothing & footwear shoppers who buy footwear (%), 2014

Figure 124: Profile of online footwear shoppers by age (%), 2014

Figure 125: Profile of online footwear shoppers by socioeconomic group (%), 2014

Figure 126: Time spent browsing by online footwear shoppers before purchasing an item (%), 2014

Figure 127: Device usage by consumers shopping online for footwear (%), 2014

Figure 128: Preferred delivery method for online footwear shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 129: Drivers of online spend for footwear (%), 2014

Figure 130: Transeasonal footwear styles for men and women, 2014

Figure 131: Clothing & footwear retailers that blamed performance on poor weather, 2013

Figure 132: Retailers that have created and promoted transeasonal ranges, 2014

Figure 133: Original Factory Shop hurricane Bertha tweet, 2014

Figure 134: Investment areas for footwear retailers in building transeasonal ranges, 2014

Figure 135: Clarks transeasonal footwear offer, 2014

Figure 136: Clarks transeasonal footwear offer, 2014

Figure 137: Transeasonal advertising on Twitter, 2014

Figure 138: Transeasonal footwear marketing, 2014

Figure 139: Office's Style for the bank holiday marketing campaign, 2014

Figure 140: Most important factors in the purchasing decision for children's footwear, 2014

Figure 141: Clarks emphasises fitting and product knowledge, 2014

Figure 142: Preferred channels for children's footwear, 2014

Figure 143: Russell & Bromley Kids and Kids Footlocker, Westfield Stratford, 2014

Figure 144: Successful implementation of standalone children's footwear stores, 2014

Figure 145: Market positioning of the most visited children's footwear retailers, 2014

Figure 146: Zara's fashion-led footwear offer for girls, 2014

Table 1: Footwear market definition, 2015

Table 2: Footwear sales (GBPm) and year-on-year changes (%), 2005-15e

Table 3: Footwear sales breakdown (GBPm), 2010-15e

Table 4: Clothing & footwear expenditure, inflation, volume and value, 2015e-20e

Table 5: Footwear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 6: Footwear sales breakdown (GBPm), 2015e-20e

Table 7: Footwear specialists summary, 2010, 2015e and 2020e

Table 8: Footwear specialists' sales at current and constant prices (GBPm), 2010-20e

Table 9: Sources of growth at footwear specialists (%), 2010-20e

Table 10: Footwear specialists' selling space, 2010-20e

Table 11: Clothing & footwear expenditure (GBPm) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Table 12: Footwear expenditure (GBPm) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Table 13: Footwear channels of distribution expenditure (GBPm) and share (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e

Table 14: Footwear specialist retailers' footwear market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 15: Clothing specialist retailers' footwear market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 16: Sportswear retailers' footwear market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 17: Grocers, department stores and general merchandisers footwear market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 18: Top 15 footwear retailers' key UK operating statistics, 2015/16e

Table 19: Consumer likeliness to recommend a wide fit footwear retailer by attribute (%), 2015

Table 20: Consumer ratings for comfort footwear retailers, 2015

Table 21: Frequency of footwear shopping trips by demographics (%), 2015

Table 22: Channels used in the last year by footwear shoppers by demographics (%), 2015

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