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Value Clothing Retail in the UK - Verdict Market Report

Value Clothing Retail in the UK - Verdict Market Report

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Executive Summary

The UK value clothing market has experienced 10 years of impressive growth, outperforming the total UK clothing market for more than 15 years. We forecast a 5.3% rise in value clothing expenditure in 2015, as retailers broaden their ranges, invest in multichannel operations and engage with shoppers via personalised initiatives.

Key Findings

Provides data and insight on market size, sales and growth rates for value clothing overall and at sub-sector level, helping to plan range development

Provides expenditure breakdown across the value, midmarket and premium clothing sectors highlighting the areas which offer the most growth potential

Market issues are examined; multichannel development, consumer analysis, online growth prospects, international expansion opportunities

Value clothing expenditure forecast to 2020 and analysis of overall clothing volume growth and value clothing drivers in the next five years


59.2% of consumers agree that they look for low prices when buying into short-term fashion trends, according to Verdict's 2015 UK clothing & footwear survey. Value players such as H&M and New Look have focused on developing their fashion-led offers throughout 2015 to cater to demands, boosting the frequency of shopper visits and spend per head.

The shift in the customer base and consumer willingness to buy across the value segment as well as the mid and premium markets means that value retailers now have a far more varied shopper base to satisfy. ABC1 shoppers now account for over 45% of value clothing shoppers, causing players to place more focus on fashion, style and product quality.

The online channel will also fuel sales growth, and in the coming five years we expect to see online sales rise among all major players, and in particular at TK Maxx, Matalan, H&M and New Look, where greater editorial content, and enhanced online functionality will make their offers more accessible and the online purchasing process more enjoyable.

Reasons To Buy

What proportion of value clothing sales will come from online in 2015? What must value players do to further capitalise on this growing channel?

How will growth in the value clothing market differ in the five years to 2020 from the previous five years? What must I do to ensure sales growth?

Which segments of the market offer the best growth potential? How is the mid market/premium sector performing following the recessionary period?

Which value clothing retailers will gain the most market share in 2015, and who are expected to be the greatest share losers and why?

1 Outlook

1.1 Overview

1.2 Main Conclusions

1.2.1 Value clothing expenditure to grow 5.3% in 2015

1.2.2 Continued focus on fast-fashion is essential for growth

1.2.3 Growth in the value segment will slow in the five years to 2020

1.2.4 Opportunities to target underserved 65+ consumers

1.2.5 A focus on loyalty drivers other than price is essential

1.2.6 Menswear offers value retailers the most growth opportunities

1.2.7 Primark, H&M and TK Maxx make the greatest market share gains

1.2.8 Online value clothing market will grow by 111.2% in five years to 2020

1.2.9 Launching into new sectors will enhance destination appeal and improve differentiation

1.2.10 Value retailers have only dipped their toe when it comes to international opportunities

2 Recommendations

2.1 Overview

2.2 Value Players Must Broaden Proposition

2.2.1 Target new customers

2.2.2 Value retailers must satisfy a very broad customer base

2.2.3 Maximise spend opportunities in non-core sectors

2.2.4 Online value players must seize multichannel spend

2.2.5 Value online pureplays must build destination appeal to drive visits and loyalty

2.2.6 International expansion is essential for future growth

3 Market Size

3.1 Overview

3.2 Market Definition

3.3 Clothing Market Sector Breakdown

3.4 Value Clothing in Context of Clothing Market

3.5 Sector Segmentation

4 Market Forecast

4.1 Overview

4.2 Value Clothing in Context of Clothing Market

4.3 Sector Segmentation

5 Channel Shares

5.1 Overview

5.2 Value Clothing Channel Shares

6 Market Shares

6.1 Overview

6.2 Market Shares

6.2.1 Value clothing market shares

6.3 Winners and Losers

6.4 Subsector Market Shares

6.5 Key Operating Statistics

7 Sector Trends

7.1 Overview

7.2 New Sectors to Target

7.2.1 Grow sales via complementary product areas

7.2.2 Sports clothing

7.2.3 Plus size clothing

7.2.4 Homewares

7.2.5 Health & beauty

7.3 Online Value Clothing Market

7.3.1 Sector lags behind total online clothing

7.3.2 New Look is the largest online value clothing specialist

7.3.3 Specialists dominate but grocers take a third of online value clothing sales

7.3.4 Online channel set to grow to 14.2% of the value clothing market in 2020

7.3.5 Few new online entrants will make an impact, but established value players must remain wary

7.4 Value-Focused Online Pureplays Threaten Multichannel Players

7.4.1 Up and coming players steal sales from established retailers

7.4.2 The value to midmarket segment has seen the most activity in the past 10 years

7.4.3 Being top of mind is imperative for pureplays to sustain growth

7.4.4 Reliance on transactional website ensures on-going investment is crucial

7.5 Shopper Profile and Spending Habits

7.5.1 Value retailers must satisfy a very broad customer base

7.5.2 Opportunities to boost visitor share of males, 55+s and ABs

7.5.3 One-quarter of all value clothing shoppers in the UK visit Primark

7.6 International Expansion Opportunities

7.6.1 Nearly 40.0% of sales will come from international operations by 2019

7.6.2 Primark infiltrates Europe and heads across the Atlantic

7.6.3 TJK Europe shifts focus away from UK

7.6.4 New Look enters China

7.6.5 Forever 21 uses the UK as a stepping stone to the rest of Europe

7.6.6 Untapped international opportunities remain for value retailers

8 Methodology

8.1 Methodology: Recommendations

8.2 Methodology: Market Size

8.3 Methodology: Market Forecast

8.4 Methodology: Channel Shares

8.5 Methodology: Market Shares

8.6 Methodology: Sector Trends

8.6.1 Value market

8.6.2 Online value clothing market

8.7 Appendix

8.7.1 Appendix: Recommendations

8.7.2 Abbreviations

8.8 Appendix: Market Size

8.8.1 Definitions

8.8.2 Abbreviations

8.9 Appendix: Market Forecast

8.9.1 Definitions

8.9.2 Abbreviations

8.1 Appendix: Market Shares

8.10.1 Definitions

8.10.2 Abbreviations

8.11 Appendix: Sector Trends

8.11.1 Definitions

8.11.2 Abbreviations

9 Appendix

9.1 About Verdict Retail

9.2 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Sector shares of the clothing market (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 2: Value clothing spend (GBPbn) and year-on-year change versus total clothing (%), 2005-15e

Figure 3: Consumers who agree that they look for cheaper products when buying into short- term fashion trends (%), 2015

Figure 4: Value clothing market drivers (GBPbn), 2015e on 2010

Figure 5: Positioning map of value clothing retailers by age and style, 2015

Figure 6: Value retailers' clothing sales mix (%), 2005, 2010 and 2015e

Figure 7: Value clothing retailers' share of total clothing segments (%), 2005, 2010 and 2015e

Figure 8: H&M spring/summer childrenswear, 2015

Figure 9: Value clothing spend (GBPbn) and year-on-year change versus total clothing (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 10: Methods to drive value clothing expenditure in 2015 and beyond

Figure 11: Value retailers' clothing sales mix (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 12: Value clothing share of total clothing segments (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 13: UK value clothing channel shares (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 14: UK value clothing online and offline channel shares (%), 2010, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 15: Value clothing market shares (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 16: Winners and losers in value clothing market share (percentage point), 2015e on 2014

Figure 17: UK clothing space growth versus clothing sales growth (%), 2014/15e

Figure 18: Clothing sales (GBPm), 2014 and 2015e

Figure 19: Clothing sales densities (GBP/sq ft), 2014 and 2015e

Figure 20: Growth areas for value clothing retailers, 2015

Figure 21: Consumers who agree/disagree that they view brands as important when purchasing sports clothing (%), 2015

Figure 22: Most popular sports partaken in over the past 12 months (%), 2015

Figure 23: Key areas in sports clothing in which value players must invest, 2015

Figure 24: Where consumers purchased sportswear in the last 12 months (%), 2015

Figure 25: UK sportswear expenditure growth (%), 2014-19e

Figure 26: Most important drivers when purchasing sports clothing (%), 2015

Figure 27: Consumers who agree that they do not buy branded sports clothing due to replacing products frequently (%), 2015

Figure 28: Percentage of consumers who have bought sports clothing at a value retailer over the last 12 months (%), 2015

Figure 29: Primark Workout range, Tooting Branch, 2015

Figure 30: Percentage of respondents who bought sports clothing online by gender (%), 2015

Figure 31: Consumers who agree or disagree that there is enough plus size choice at value prices (%), 2015

Figure 32: Where plus size shoppers prefer to buy their clothing (%), 2015

Figure 33: Why plus size shoppers prefer to buy from a retailer's core offer (%), 2015

Figure 34: Characteristics of the online plus size shopper (%), 2015

Figure 35: Most shopped at value retailer for plus size clothing over the past 12 months (%), 2015

Figure 36: UK homewares expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 37: Matalan and Asda homewares, 2015

Figure 38: Primark homewares, 2015

Figure 39: UK cosmetics expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 40: Online value clothing expenditure (GBPbn), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 41: Retailer share of online value clothing market (%), 2015e

Figure 42: TK Maxx online visual merchandising, 2015

Figure 43: Share of online value clothing market (%), 2015e

Figure 44: Sample Figure

Figure 45: Online value clothing expenditure (GBPbn), 2010, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 46: Online clothing & footwear expenditure (GBPm), 2014e-19e

Figure 47: Clothing & footwear expenditure through online pureplays (GBPbn), 2009-19e

Figure 48: Top 10 most visited online clothing & footwear retailers and their conversion rates (%), 2013

Figure 49: Strengths and opportunities for Pretty Little Thing and Daisy Street to grow sales, 2014

Figure 50: Online clothing & footwear positioning map, 2014

Figure 51: Fashion Union advertisement at City Thameslink station, London, April 2013

Figure 52: boohoo #Dressmas campaign, December 2013

Figure 53: Google search results for 'onesie', February 2014

Figure 54: Fashion Union website, The Style Edit feature, April 2014

Figure 55: Features that make a compelling website, February 2014

Figure 56: Five year change in value clothing shoppers vs total clothing shoppers (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 57: Value clothing shopper profile (%), 2014

Figure 58: Value clothing shoppers by household size (%), 2014

Figure 59: Opportunities for retailers to target lower penetration visitor segments, 2014

Figure 60: Value clothing retailers' visitor share (%), 2014

Figure 61: Value clothing retailers' loyalty scores (%), 2014

Figure 62: Share of international sales at UK value retailers (%), 2009, 2014e and 2019e

Figure 63: Share of non-UK sales at Primark, TJX Europe and New Look (%), 2012 and 2014e

Figure 64: Opening of Primark Marseille, December 2013

Figure 65: New Look's non-transactional website for China, 2014

Figure 66: Forever 21 expansion across Europe, 2014

Figure 67: Map of international expansion opportunities, 2014 and beyond

Table 1: Value clothing market definition, 2015

Table 2: Summary of clothing sectors, 2015e

Table 3: Value clothing trends, 2005-15e

Table 4: Value clothing expenditure by sector (GBPm), 2005, 2010 and 2015e

Table 5: Value clothing expenditure by sector (GBPm), 2015e-20e

Table 6: UK value clothing channels of distribution expenditure (GBPm) and share (%), 2010, 2014 and 2015e

Table 7: Value clothing market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 8: Smaller value clothing retailers' market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 9: Value womenswear market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 10: Value menswear market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 11: Value childrenswear market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 12: Value clothing retailers' key operating statistics, 2014/15e

Table 13: Replacement cycles of sports clothing (%), 2015

Table 14: Retailer Net Promoter Scores by plus size shoppers, 2015

Table 15: Value clothing market definition, 2015

Table 16: Value clothing market definition, 2015

Table 17: Value clothing market definition, 2015

Table 18: Value clothing market definition, 2015

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