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Global Airport Retailing - Verdict Channel Report

Global Airport Retailing - Verdict Channel Report


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Executive Summary

After two years of slowing growth due to a weak global economy, we forecast that airport retail sales will gain momentum in 2014 and grow by 7.7%. More passengers and higher levels of spend per passenger, as the economy improves, the BRIC countries strengthen and MINT nations emerge. The future prospects for the channel remain buoyant, with growth improving every year to 11.0% in 2019.

Key Findings

Forecasts of global and regional sales, passenger numbers, spend per passenger and sector spend up to 2019 to enable opportunities to be identified.

Briefings on the 10 main players in the airport sector, with market shares up to 2014, coverage of recent key events and what it means for the market.

An analysis of the major trends within the airport sector, how it will affect it operators and if a potential threat, how it can be overcome.

Synopsis

While all sectors are set to achieve robust growth over the next five years, the best performing ones will be beauty products and alcohol. Beauty products will be supported by new products stimulating demand and a reluctance by customers to cut back. The ability to not pay tax or duty on alcohol at an airport will support this sector up to 2019.

The growth of low cost carriers (LCC) continues, and accounted for 24.8% of all air traffic in 2012. This growth tends to suppress airport spend as these shoppers are either ineligible for duty free or have little appetite for it. With more long haul flights for LCC's planned, retailers must adjust their offer to serve these customers.

Dufry is set to retain top spot in the airport market in 2014 with a share just under 10%. The company has been driven by acquisitions, such as the complete acquisition of Hellenic Duty Free in 2013, and significant expansion plans within Europe, Middle East and North America, with new stores set to open in Dallas, JFK in New York, and Brazil.

Reasons To Buy

Which regions and sectors are set to outperform the market over the next five years? What factors are behind this performance?

How will online and multichannel retail affect the airport retail market?

Which companies are set to gain share in 2014 and who is set to fall back?

1 Overview

2 Key Findings

2.1 We expect growth through airports to ease marginally in 2015

2.2 2015 passenger numbers will remain consistent with 2014

2.3 Beauty and electricals sales drive growth

2.4 Growth set to accelerate over next five years

2.5 Asia Pacific drives the market, both now and in the future

2.6 Relaxation of visas rules for Asian passengers will increase airport sales

2.7 Following its acquisitions, Dufry is the undisputed market leader

2.8 Greater consolidation will change the landscape of the channel

2.9 Airside will increase its share of the market by 2020

3 Market Size

3.1 Market definition

3.2 Overall market

3.2.1 Sales growth remains consistent in 2015

3.3 Market size by region

3.3.1 Asia Pacific drives growth globally

3.3.2 Europe continues its recovery

3.3.3 The Americas and the Middle East and Africa continue to gather momentum

3.4 Passenger numbers by region

3.4.1 The Middle East and Africa has been the fastest growing region since 2012

3.4.2 Passenger numbers in Asia Pacific continue to cool

3.4.3 A recovery in the euro supported the European sector

3.4.4 We expect the momentum in the Americas to continue into 2015

3.5 Spend per passenger

3.6 Market size by category

3.6.1 Beauty sees strongest growth in 2015

3.6.2 Electricals growth ratchets upwards

3.6.3 Alcohol sales recover in 2015 after a challenging year

3.6.4 Tobacco's share of the global airport market will decline sharply in 2015

4 Market Forecast

4.1 Market size by region

4.1.1 Global sales continue to rise

4.1.2 Asia Pacific fastest growing market

4.1.3 Asia Pacific market will nearly double by 2020

4.1.4 New airports open to satisfy increasing demand

4.1.5 Europe sees slowest growth over next five years

4.1.6 Sales in Americas to grow 50.6% in next five years

4.2 Passenger numbers by region

4.3 Spend per passenger

4.3.1 Spend per passenger to increase across all regions

4.4 Market size by category

5 Outlook

5.1 Mobile and pre-order shopping

5.1.1 More airport retail operators now offer pre-order shopping

5.1.2 Pre-order purchases encourage more time-constrained customer to increase spend

5.1.3 Pre-order shopping benefits from a captive audience

5.1.4 Operators aiming to outdo each other in terms of convenience

5.1.5 For pre-order to be effective, a robust infrastructure is required

5.1.6 Improving how the website looks will help attract luxury brands and drive sales

5.1.7 Operators should capitalise more on driving sales through mobiles

5.1.8 Shopping walls for grocery are an option to drive sales through mobiles

5.1.9 Increasing awareness of this offer is pivotal

5.2 Relaxation of Asia Pacific visas

5.2.1 The UK has relaxed its visa requirements

5.2.2 Many countries have worked to attract Chinese tourists

5.2.3 Growing economy and perceptions of disposable income fuel this desire

5.2.4 China has a strong appetite for luxury products

5.2.5 Chinese luxury shoppers prefer more understated products

5.2.6 India extends visa-on-arrival scheme

5.2.7 Boosting visitor numbers a focus for Indian government

5.2.8 Passenger growth will drive duty free spend

5.2.9 Success dependent on duty free and airport operators working closely together

5.3 Increasing access to airside

5.3.1 Zurich airport invited non-passengers to go airside

5.3.2 Others implemented similar events

5.3.3 Security is a key consideration

5.3.4 Speed with which shoppers can get airside is important too

5.3.5 Who pays for excess duty will determine the promotion for the event

5.3.6 Restrictions need to be communicated clearly to customers

5.3.7 Need to maximise dwell time among shoppers

5.3.8 Timing of Zurich and Pittsburgh event would work best

5.3.9 Airports and duty free operators need to work together to maximise returns

5.4 Greater consolidation within travel retail expected

5.4.1 Travel retail sees its largest acquisition

5.4.2 Improved margins a key benefit of consolidation

5.4.3 Becoming larger players will create an upward spiral

5.4.4 Faster entry into new markets is another advantage

5.4.5 Consolidation also enables retailers to shore up weak parts of their offer

5.4.6 Large integration projects may take a significant share of resources

5.4.7 Remaining a nimble retailer at such a size will be tough

5.4.8 Operators run the risk of homogeneity

5.4.9 Operators will increasingly acquire or be acquired

5.5 Falling oil prices will impact Russia severely

5.5.1 The price of oil fell sharply toward the end of 2014

5.5.2 This drop will significantly impact Russia

5.5.3 Russian and other European airports have seen their 2014 suffer as a result

5.5.4 While the market will recover, it will suffer in the short term

6 Aer Rianta International

6.1 Company information

6.2 Verdict outlook

6.2.1 India should remain important despite Mumbai withdrawal

6.2.2 Middle East will provide opportunities for growth

6.2.3 Innovation will help mature domestic market

6.2.4 Improving service proposition will help growth

6.3 Recent key events

6.3.1 Pulls out of Kunming and Mumbai International airports

6.3.2 Acquires managing stake in Cyprus operations

6.3.3 Wins the Auckland tender

6.3.4 Promotions help Delhi Duty Free post strong profits

6.3.5 Launches personal shopping service at Dublin airport

6.4 Proposition

6.5 Financials

6.5.1 Makes profit by selling off Russia/CIS interests

6.6 Market share

7 DFS Group

7.1 Company information

7.2 Verdict outlook

7.2.1 Will receive boost from operations in Singapore

7.2.2 Premium positioning should boost growth opportunities

7.2.3 Customer engagement strategy will drive footfall to stores

7.2.4 Strategic partnerships will be key in attracting Chinese consumers

7.3 Recent key events

7.3.1 Enters European market with move into Venice

7.3.2 Unveils plans for new format store at Singapore Changi Airport

7.3.3 Will enter Cambodian market with T Galleria mall near Angkor Wat

7.3.4 Partners with Bacardi to launch campaign across key airports

7.3.5 Targets Chinese shoppers with partnerships with Chinese players

7.3.6 Files misconduct case against Guam International Airport Authority

7.3.7 Completes San Francisco Airport renovation

7.3.8 Launches global beauty campaign

7.3.9 Receives one year extension to duty free contract at Los Angeles

7.4 Proposition

7.5 Financials

7.5.1 Trading update

7.6 Market share

8 Dubai Duty Free

8.1 Company information

8.2 Verdict outlook

8.2.1 Changing demographic of passengers

8.2.2 Dubai Airports app offers multichannel potential to retailers

8.2.3 New opportunities for growth

8.2.4 Understanding consumers at Al Maktoum International Airport

8.2.5 Partnerships and promotions remain at centre of strategy

8.3 Recent key events

8.3.1 DDF celebrates 31st anniversary leading to new monthly sales record

8.3.2 Dubai Airports launches new mobile app

8.3.3 Exclusive partnerships with brands boost sales

8.3.4 DDF continues to enhance retail operations at Dubai International Airport

8.3.5 Growth in passenger traffic through Dubai's airports

8.3.6 Passenger numbers from Russia drop, but grow from India

8.4 Financials

8.5 Market share

9 Dufry

9.1 Company information

9.2 Verdict outlook

9.2.1 While the integration of Nuance and World Duty Free Group will be challenging, it offers significant benefits

9.2.2 Its expansion in Brazil should reap significant rewards for it over the next five years

9.2.3 Should roll out its pre-order shopping to a wider base faster

9.2.4 Lack of presence in Australia raises questions about Dufry's involvement in this market

9.3 Recent key events

9.3.1 Acquires majority stake in World Duty Free Group in March 2015

9.3.2 Dufry acquires Nuance in June 2014

9.3.3 Dufry aims to achieve CHF70m in savings via synergies

9.3.4 Roberto Graziani and Richard Rendek have both left the business

9.3.5 Brazil remains a key area for Dufry

9.3.6 Dufry wins tenders in Kenya and Nigeria

9.3.7 Helps Gap enter the Spanish market

9.3.8 Challenges the award of Kiev tender

9.3.9 Loses the Sydney tender to Gebr Heinemann

9.3.10 Nuance extends Orlando contract until 2022

9.3.11 Introduces pre-order shopping at Bengaluru International Airport

9.4 Proposition

9.5 Financials

9.6 Market share

10 Duty Free Americas

10.1 Company information

10.2 Verdict outlook

10.2.1 Multichannel expansion offers growth prospects

10.2.2 Exploit growing market in Latin America

10.3 Recent key events

10.3.1 Expands at Washington Dulles International Airport

10.3.2 Launches online pre-order system

10.3.3 Wins first Brazilian airport duty free contract

10.3.4 Opens exclusive Diageo liquor store in Colombia

10.3.5 Appeals lower court ruling in dispute with Este Lauder

10.3.6 Introduces luxury sunglasses concept store with Luxottica

10.4 Proposition

10.5 Financials

10.5.1 Growing airport retail operations only one part of the business

10.6 Market share

11 Gebrder Heinemann

11.1 Company information

11.2 Verdict outlook

11.2.1 Asia Pacific expansion gains momentum

11.2.2 Must manage exposure to volatile Russian market

11.2.3 Focus on multichannel strategy

11.3 Recent key events

11.3.1 Heinemann wins heavily contested contract for Sydney Airport

11.3.2 Partners with Etihad to offer customer rewards

11.3.3 Enters North Africa with Egypt and Tunisia tender wins

11.3.4 Wins Istanbul tender in January 2015

11.3.5 Oreo helps Gebr Heinemann grow confectionery sales

11.3.6 Partners with Finnair for inflight duty free deal

11.3.7 Launches home delivery service in Germany

11.3.8 Set to invest 130m in 2015

11.4 Proposition

11.5 Financials

11.6 Market share

12 Lotte Duty Free

12.1 Company information

12.2 Verdict outlook

12.2.1 Significant long-term aspirations for international growth

12.2.2 Retaining the Incheon tender sets the business in good stead

12.2.3 Increasing presence in Indonesia will boost performance

12.3 Recent key events

12.3.1 Opens retail offer at Guam International Airport

12.3.2 Boutiques open at Guam

12.3.3 New CEO steps up

12.3.4 Increases presence within the Japanese market

12.3.5 Aiming to increase its presence in Indonesia

12.3.6 Has won four store packages at Incheon Airport

12.3.7 Lotte launches English pre-order site in December 2014

12.4 Proposition

12.5 Financials

12.6 Market share

13 LS Travel Retail

13.1 Company information

13.2 Proposition

13.2.1 Store concepts in Europe in 2015

13.2.2 Store concepts in Asia Pacific in 2015

13.2.3 Store concepts in North America in 2015

13.3 Verdict outlook

13.3.1 Food & Beverage division provides expansion opportunities

13.3.2 Asia Pacific offers growth

13.3.3 Personalisation will give competitive edge

13.3.4 Must focus on multichannel

13.4 Recent key events

13.4.1 Rebrands Aelia Duty Free with focus on digital

13.4.2 Bids for Istanbul Grand Airport duty free concession

13.4.3 Wins food and beverage concession at Iceland's Keflavik Airport

13.4.4 Wins five fashion tenders for Spanish airports

13.4.5 Opens new fashion stores at Shenzhen Airport

13.4.6 Grows Relay brand in India

13.4.7 Opens M&M concept store at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport

13.4.8 Opens MY Lifestyle Gallery store in Kuala Lumpur

13.4.9 Consolidates presence in Adelaide

13.5 Financials

13.6 Market share

14 Shilla Group

14.1 Company information

14.2 Proposition

14.3 Verdict outlook

14.3.1 New SME legislation could impact profitability

14.3.2 International expansion offers growth opportunities

14.4 Recent key events

14.4.1 Aiming to expand internationally by acquiring stake in DFASS and hiring former Nuance head

14.4.2 Changes imminent in Korean travel retail

14.4.3 Chinese visitor numbers continue to rise

14.4.4 Japanese visitor numbers drop due to weak yen

14.4.5 Shilla retains Incheon

14.4.6 Macau operations begin

14.4.7 Beauty concession opens at Changi Airport

14.4.8 Withdrawal from Kuala Lumpur

14.5 Financials

14.6 Market share

15 World Duty Free

15.1 Company information

15.2 Verdict outlook

15.2.1 Secure contractual base in key markets

15.2.2 Troubles at Barajas impact Spanish performance

15.3 Recent key events

15.3.1 Opens first duty free outlet in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province

15.3.2 Extends Heathrow and Los Angeles duty free offer

15.3.3 Wins Kuwaiti tender

15.3.4 Redevelops a number of British stores

15.3.5 Concierge desk improves service credentials

15.3.6 Becomes the only duty free operator at Helsinki Airport

15.4 Proposition

15.5 Financials

15.5.1 Trading update

15.5.2 Turnover by country

15.5.3 Turnover by category

15.6 Market share

16 Appendix

16.1 About Verdict Retail

16.2 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Global airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2011-15e

Figure 2: Asia Pacific airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2011-15e

Figure 3: Americas airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2011-15e

Figure 4: Europe airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2011-15e

Figure 5: Middle East and Africa airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2011-15e

Figure 6: Split between landside, airside duty paid and airside duty free (%), 2014-15e

Figure 7: Global airport retail market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 8: Asia Pacific airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 9: Europe airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 10: Americas airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 11: Middle East and Africa airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 12: Spend per passenger (USD), by region, 2010-20e

Figure 13: Split between landside, airside duty paid and airside duty free (%), 2015-20e

Figure 14: Outlook summary

Figure 15: Size (EURbn) and year-on-year change (%) of the Chinese luxury market, 2010-20e

Figure 16: Queues at Pittsburgh Airport ahead of its open house, 2014

Figure 17: Key considerations when allowing customers to go airside

Figure 18: Benefits and consequences of greater consolidation

Figure 19: Dufry's global presence following acquisition of World Duty Free Group, 2015

Figure 20: The value of the Russian rouble against other major currencies, January 2014 to February 2015

Figure 21: Aer Rianta International at Dublin Airport, 2015

Figure 22: Aer Rianta International turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-15e

Figure 23: Aer Rianta International market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 24: Aer Rianta International African and Middle East market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 25: Aer Rianta International regional market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 26: DFS Group fascia, 2015

Figure 27: DFS premium wine and spirits offer at Hong Kong International Airport, 2015

Figure 28: Cocktails of the World campaign run in partnership with Bacardi, 2015

Figure 29: DFS Group airport retailing turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2011-15e

Figure 30: DFS Group market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 31: DFS Group regional market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 32: Dubai Duty Free Concourse A, 2015

Figure 33: DDF shopping complex at Concourse A, Dubai International Airport, 2014

Figure 34: A display as part of the Lindt Lindor Spring Flavour promotion at Concourse A at Dubai International, 2014

Figure 35: Dubai Duty Free turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-15e

Figure 36: Dubai Duty Free market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 37: Dubai Duty Free Middle East and Africa market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 38: Dufry, 2015

Figure 39: Dufry turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-15e

Figure 40: Nuance turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-13

Figure 41: Dufry global market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 42: Dufry Americas market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 43: Dufry regional market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 44: Duty Free Americas, 2015

Figure 45: Diageo concept store at El Dorado International Airport in Bogota, Colombia, 2015

Figure 46: Ray Ban and Oakley concept store at Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International Airport, 2015

Figure 47: Duty Free Americas turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-15e

Figure 48: Duty Free Americas market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 49: Duty Free Americas market share of the Americas (%), 2010-15e

Figure 50: Gebr Heinemann fascia, 2015

Figure 51: Oreo promotions at Frankfurt Airport, 2014

Figure 52: Gebr Heinemann turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-15e

Figure 53: Gebr Heinemann market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 54: Gebr Heinemann regional market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 55: Lotte Duty Free, 2015

Figure 56: Lotte Duty Free turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-15e

Figure 57: Lotte Duty Free market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 58: Lotte Duty Free Asia Pacific market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 59: LS Travel Retail, 2015

Figure 60: Aelia's rebranded store at Marseille Airport, 2015

Figure 61: Luxury fashion stores in Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport , 2015

Figure 62: Photo opportunity area in the M&M concept store in Paris, 2015

Figure 63: LS Travel Retail consolidated turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-15e

Figure 64: LS Travel Retail market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 65: LS Travel Retail European market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 66: LS Travel Retail regional market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 67: Shilla Duty Free at Incheon International Airport, 2015

Figure 68: Shilla Duty Free at Incheon Airport, 2015

Figure 69: Shilla Duty Free at Singapore's Changi Airport, 2015

Figure 70: Hotel Shilla turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-15e

Figure 71: Shilla Duty Free market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 72: Shilla Duty Free Asia Pacific market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 73: World Duty Free fascia, 2015

Figure 74: World Duty Free turnover (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-15e

Figure 75: World Duty Free turnover by country (%), 2014

Figure 76: World Duty Free turnover by category (%), 2014

Figure 77: World Duty Free market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 78: World Duty Free European market share (%), 2010-15e

Figure 79: World Duty Free regional market share (%), 2010-15e

Table 1: Airside and landside definitions, 2015

Table 2: Global airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), 2011-15e

Table 3: Global airport retail market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by region, 2011-15e

Table 4: Passenger numbers (million) and year-on-year change (%), by region, 2011-15e

Table 5: Sales per passenger (USD) and year-on-year change (%), by region, 2011-15e

Table 6: Global airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by category, 2013-15e

Table 7: Asia Pacific airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by category, 2013-15e

Table 8: Europe airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by category, 2013-15e

Table 9: Americas airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by category, 2013-15e

Table 10: Middle East and Africa airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by category, 2013-15e

Table 11: Airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by region, 2015e-20e

Table 12: Passenger numbers (million) and year-on-year change (%), by region, 2015e-20e

Table 13: Sales per passenger (USD) and year-on-year change (%), by region, 2015e-20e

Table 14: Global airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by category, 2015e-20e

Table 15: Asia Pacific airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by category, 2015e-20e

Table 16: Americas airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by category, 2015e-20e

Table 17: Europe airport retailing market size (USDm) and growth (%), by category, 2015e-20e

Table 18: Middle East and Africa airport retailing market size (USDm) and year-on-year change (%), by category, 2015e-20e

Table 19: Aer Rianta International company information, 2015

Table 20: ARI airport retail proposition, 2015

Table 21: Aer Rianta International trading record, 2010-15e

Table 22: DFS Group company information, 2015

Table 23: DFS airport locations, 2015

Table 24: DFS Group trading record (EURm), 2010-15

Table 25: DFS Group trading record (USDm), 2010-15e

Table 26: Dubai Duty Free company information, 2015

Table 27: Dubai Duty Free trading record, 2010-15e

Table 28: Dubai Duty Free sales growth (%) by category, 2013-14

Table 29: Dubai Duty Free sales growth (%) by terminal, 2013-14

Table 30: Dubai Duty Free sales growth (%) by location, 2013-14

Table 31: Dufry company information, 2015

Table 32: Dufry global presence, 2015

Table 33: Dufry retail store concepts, 2015

Table 34: Nuance global airport presence, 2014

Table 35: Nuance airport retail brands, 2014

Table 36: Dufry trading record (CHFm), 2010-15e

Table 37: Dufry trading record (USDm), 2010-15e

Table 38: Duty Free Americas company information, 2015

Table 39: Duty Free Americas retail store concepts, 2015

Table 40: Duty Free Americas trading record (USDm), 2010-15e

Table 41: Gebr Heinemann company information, 2015

Table 42: Gebr Heinemann retail store concepts, 2015

Table 43: Gebr Heinemann trading record (EURm), 2010-15e

Table 44: Gebr Heinemann trading record (USDm), 2010-15e

Table 45: Lotte Duty Free company information, 2015

Table 46: Lotte Duty Free airport stores, 2014

Table 47: Lotte Duty Free trading record (USDm), 2010-15e

Table 48: LS Travel Retail company information, 2015

Table 49: LS Travel Retail global airport presence, 2015

Table 50: LS Travel Retail store concepts in Europe, 2015

Table 51: LS Travel Retail store concepts in Asia Pacific, 2015

Table 52: LS Travel Retail store concepts in North America, 2015

Table 53: LS Travel Retail consolidated sales (EURm and USDm), 2010-15e

Table 54: Shilla Group company information, 2015

Table 55: Shilla Duty Free global airport presence, 2015

Table 56: Shilla Duty Free sales (USDm), 2010-15e

Table 57: World Duty Free company information, 2015

Table 58: World Duty Free Group retail own brands, 2015

Table 59: World Duty Free trading record (EURm), 2010-15e

Table 60: World Duty Free trading record (USDm), 2010-15e

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