The UK Food & Grocery Market 2018-2023

The UK Food & Grocery Market 2018-2023


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Executive Summary

The UK Food & Grocery Market 2018-2023

Summary

"The UK Food & Grocery Market 2018-2023", report offers comprehensive insight and analysis of the food & grocery market (including forecasts up to 2023), the major players, the main trends, and consumer attitudes. It provides in-depth analysis of the following: the hot issues impacting the market, strategies for success, market sizes and forecasts, retailer profiles, retailer market shares, consumer data and future outlook. The report focuses on food, tobacco & e-cigarettes, alcoholic drinks, soft drinks, household products and hot drinks. Consumer data is based on our 2018 UK How Britain Shops survey, using a panel of 10,000 nationally representative consumers.

The UK food & grocery market is forecast to reach GBP150.9bn in 2018, with forecast growth of 15.1% between 2018-2023. Mergers and acquisitions throughout 2017 and 2018 are consolidating the market, leading to challenges for suppliers-particularly with Brexit uncertainty mounting. Online continues to grow at pace, reaching 8.3% penetration in 2018.

Scope

- The health and wellness trend is damaging volume sales across key food & grocery sub-sectors, including meat & fish and sugar & sweet products

- The discounters control 13.2% of the market, and (coupled with the rise of online specialists) threaten to further erode market share of the Big Four in the future

- Uncertainty surrounding the future of global trade relations will see food & grocery inflation peak in 2018 at 3.3%, and will remain above 3% until mid-2020

- The 65+ demographic now accounts for 23.9% of all food & grocery spending (GBP36.1bn)-up 3.4ppts since 2016

- The main drivers of value for money, quality, price and range are crucial to consumers, with at least 75% of food & grocery shoppers rating each of these criteria seven or more out of ten for importance.

- The number of consumers who shop at least every few days has risen by 2.7ppts since last year to 46.2%, coupled by a 3.0ppts reduction in the percentage who only shop once a week.

Reasons to buy

- Understand how mergers and acquisitions are affecting the food & grocery market in 2018 to identify new potential partnerships

- Explore how the dynamics of the online grocery market are changing and view online market shares of the major grocers, allowing you to explore potential avenues of growth through e-commerce

- Identify the technological drivers behind Ocado's success to understand how you can adapt your business accordingly

- Learn about the shopping differences across age groups to understand how your store portfolio needs to adapt to compensate

- Discover the reasons behind the success of the discounters, and what this will mean for other players in the market in order to better compete.



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Table of Contents

THE HOT ISSUES

Market drivers and inhibitors in food & grocery

Main issues in food & grocery :

Mergers, acquisitions and partnerships: Sainsbury's and ASDA

Mergers, acquisitions and partnerships: Tesco

Price-focused retailers are experiencing the highest rates of growth

Online consolidation and the rise of the online specialists

Ocado's technological prowess will result in prolific growth

Strategies for success

WHAT PEOPLE BUY

Headlines

The sector at a glance

The sector in context

Overall sector size

Overall sector growth

Category growth in food & grocery

Category dynamics: food

Food at a glance: by storage

Category dynamics: tobacco & e-cigarettes

Category dynamics: alcoholic drinks

Category dynamics: soft drinks

Category dynamics: household products

Category dynamics: hot drinks

Spend per head per age group

Online dynamics

WHERE PEOPLE BUY

Headlines

Channels of distribution-by retailer type

Market shares-overall

Market shares-online

Comparative metrics for leading retailers

Most visited retailers

Most purchased from retailers

Retailer profiles

Tesco

Sainsbury's

ASDA

Morrisons

Aldi

The Co-op

Lidl

M&S

Waitrose

Ocado

Competitor dynamics

HOW & WHY PEOPLE SHOP

Headlines

Who shops and where they are located

Which categories they buy

Channels used by consumers

Store formats used by consumers

Fulfilment methods used by consumers

How frequently consumers are shopping for food & grocery

What's important

Likelihood of recommending a retailer

Barriers to online shopping

Drivers of online shopping

METHODOLOGY

What is included

Market sizing

List of Figures

Demographic differences between ASDA and Sainsbury's shoppers, 2018

Price proposition against growth by retailer, 2018

Percentage of online market controlled by top ten retailers, 2018

Estimated percentage points growth of online market share for retailers, 2018-2023e

Proportion of Ocado's revenue attributed to solutions vs retail, 2013-2023e

Total size of the food & grocery market by category, 2018 and 2023

Food & grocery share as a percentage of total retail spending, 2013, 2018 and 2023

Overall food & grocery: size of the market 2013-2023

Overall food & grocery: growth rates 2013-2023

Category growth in food & grocery 2018-2023

Food: category size and growth rates 2013-2023

Tobacco & e-cigarettes: category size and growth rates 2013-2023

Alcoholic drinks: category size and growth rates 2013-2023

Soft drinks: category size and growth rates 2013-2023

Household products: category size and growth rates 2013-2023

Hot drinks: category size and growth rates 2013-2023

Food & grocery spend per head per age group 2018-2023

Online food & grocery penetration 2013-2023

Online food & grocery size and growth rates 2013-2023

Channel splits for food & grocery 2018-2023

Market shares of top 10 food & grocery retailers, 2017, 2018e

Online market shares of top 10 food & grocery retailers, 2017, 2018e

Top 10 most visited food & grocery retailers

Top 10 most purchased from food & grocery retailers

Tesco: consumer dynamics and where else they shop,2018

Tesco: food & grocery market share, 2013-2018e

Sainsbury's: consumer dynamics and where else they shop,2018

Sainsbury's: food & grocery market share, 2013-2018e

ASDA: consumer dynamics and where else they shop,2018

ASDA: food & grocery market share, 2013-2018e

Morrisons: consumer dynamics and where else they shop,2018

Morrisons: food & grocery market share, 2013-2018e

Aldi: consumer dynamics and where else they shop,2018

Aldi: food & grocery market share, 2013-2018e

The Co-op: consumer dynamics and where else they shop,2018

The Co-op: food & grocery market share, 2013-2018e

Lidl: consumer dynamics and where else they shop,2018

Lidl: food & grocery market share, 2013-2018e

M&S: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2018

Waitrose: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2018

Ocado: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2018

Food & grocery shopper penetration by demographic and region, 2018

Profile of food & grocery shoppers by demographic and region, 2018

Food & grocery shopper penetration by demographic at sub-category level, 2018

Profile of food & grocery shoppers by demographic at sub-category level, 2018

Food & grocery shopper penetration by demographic at food type level, 2018

Profile of food & grocery shoppers by demographic at food type level, 2018

Channel use (instore, online and mail order/catalogue) by demographic, 2018

Store format use (out-of-town, town centre and convenience) by demographic, 2018

Fulfilment methods (home delivery, click & collect and third-party pickup) by demographic, 2018

Frequency of food & grocery purchases by demographic, 2017, 2018

What drives food & grocery purchases, 2017,2018

What drives food & grocery purchases by demographic, 2018

What drives food & grocery purchases by retailer by demographic, 2018

Likelihood of recommending a retailer to a friend, 2018

Barriers to online shopping, 2018

Drivers of online shopping, 2018

List of Tables

Food & grocery spend by subcategory, 2018e and 2023e

Food spend by storage: 2018e, 2023e

Spend per head on food & grocery in 2018

Food & grocery channel split: 2018e, 2023e

Market share prospects out to 2019 for the top 10 players

Five year market shares for Top 10 players, 2013-2018e

Comparative metrics for leading retailers

Retailer competitor overlap for Top 10 players, 2018

Purchase penetration at subcategory level (fresh fruit and vegetables, bakery goods, household goods, soft drinks, alcohol, tobacco, other food and grocery products) by demographic, 2018

Food storage type by demographic (frozen food, ambient food, chilled food), 2018

Channel usage by demographic (instore, online, mail order), 2018

Store format usage by demographic (out-of-town, town centre, convenience), 2018

Fulfilment methods used by demographic (home delivery, click & collect, third-party pickup), 2018

What drives food & grocery purchases, by demographic, 2018

What drives food & grocery purchases, by retailer, 2018

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Tesco

Sainsbury's

ASDA

Morrisons

Aldi

The Co-op

M&S

Waitrose

Lidl

Spar

Ocado

Amazon

Iceland

B&M

Food, Grocery, Inflation, Mergers, Acquisitions, Online, Ageing population, Global trade, Diet, CMA, Suppliers, Healthy living, Free-from, Tobacco, E-cigarettes, Alcohol, Soft drinks, Hot drinks, Household products, Sugar tax, Delivery, Discounters, Food innovation, Big Four, AmazonFresh, Convenience, Brexit

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