UK Economic & Retail Update - Q3 2018

UK Economic & Retail Update - Q3 2018


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  • Pages: 35
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Executive Summary

UK Economic & Retail Update-Q3 2018

Summary

"UK Economic & Retail Update-Q3 2018", report offers comprehensive insight and analysis of the UK economy and retail environment (including forecasts up to 2023). It provides in-depth analysis of the following: the key issues regarding the UK economy (including CPI, unemployment rate and etc.), and the key issues regarding the UK retail market (including online, offline and non-food markets).

Inflation levels have slowed since Q1 2018, with this trend continuing towards the end of H2. While this will bring the inflation rate closer to the 2% target set by the government, CPI (Consumer Price Index) will not fall below this level until Q4 2019.

Scope

- The retail market is set to grow 2.2% between 2017 and 2018, driven by price inflation from an increased cost of raw materials as well as business rates and employment costs such as increases in the national living wage.

- While food & grocery offline sales dominate the market, the online channel sees sectors such as clothing & footwear become more prominent.

- The books market is the smallest sector within total retail, worth only 0.8% in 2018. However, while performance is relatively lacklustre, physical books have seen a revival in line with products such as vinyl records and polaroid cameras.

Reasons to buy

- This report helps executives build proactive, profitable growth strategies by offering comprehensive, relevant analysis of key economic indicators and retail sectors.

- The broad but detailed perspective will help manufacturers and retailers understand and succeed in the challenging retail market.

- Discover which segments of the market are forecast to prosper out to 2023, and how alterations in economic policy will impact the retail market's future prospects.

- Utilise our online forecasts to 2023 to consider how to exploit your online potential and decide how best to target consumers via the channel.



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Table of Contents

ECONOMIC UPDATE

Headlines

Economic update: GDP

Economic update: inflation

Economic update: interest rates

Economic update: unemployment

Economic update: real wage growth

Economic update: savings ratio

Economic update: consumer confidence

Economic update: house prices

Economic update: house transaction change

RETAIL UPDATE

Headlines

Retail update: total retail sector size

Retail update: total retail sector growth

Retail update: total retail sector share

Retail update: sector expenditure

Retail update: sector changes

Retail update: expenditure changes by sector

Retail update: sector growth

Retail update: total retail online expenditure

Retail update: total retail online growth

Retail update: online sector shares

Retail update: online sector expenditure

Retail update: online sector changes

Retail update: total retail offline expenditure

Retail update: total retail offline growth

Retail update: non-food retail offline growth

Appendix

METHODOLOGY

Market sizing

List of Figures

GDP growth, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)

Inflation, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)

Interest rates, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)

Unemployment rate, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)

Average weekly earnings growth vs. consumer price index, monthly (January 2016-June 2018)

Savings ratio, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)

Confidence, monthly (July 2017-June 2018) and annually (2013-2017)

House price change, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)

House transaction change, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)

Total retail: size of the market, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e

Total retail: annual growth rates overall and split by inflation and volume, 2013-2023e

Sector shares of total retail, 2018e & 2023e

Expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e

Expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e-2023e

Expenditure changes by sector (GBPm), 2018e-2023e

Total retail: online expenditure (GBPbn) and online penetration(%), 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e

Total retail: online annual growth rates, 2013-2023e

Sector shares of total online retail, 2018e & 2023e

Online expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e

Online expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e & 2023e

Total retail: offline expenditure, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e

Total retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e

Non-food retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e

List of Tables

Growth rates by sector, 2018

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Economic, Economy, Retail, GDP, Inflation, Interest rates, Unemployment, Real wage growth, Savings ratio, Consumer confidence, House prices, Food & grocery, Clothing & footwear, Health & beauty, Electricals, Homewares, Furniture & floorcoverings, DIY & gardening, Entertainment, Books

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