UK: Food & Grocery 2019-2024
November 2019
67
About the Report
About the Report
UK: Food & Grocery 2019-2024
Summary
The UK Food & Grocery report offers a comprehensive insight into the food & grocery market in the UK, analysing the sector, the major players, the main trends, and consumer attitudes; as well as providing forecasts out to 2024. Consumer data is based on our 2019 UK How Britain Shops survey, using a panel of 10,000 nationally representative consumers.
UK Food & Grocery spend is expected to rise by 15.0% to GBP174.5bn in 2024, ahead of the growth seen in 2014-2019 as macro-economic conditions are set to improve and the lure of the discounters Aldi and Lidl begin to wane. However, while a recovery in volume growth is forecast, overall market growth will remain driven by inflationary pressures over the next five years.
Scope
- The UK food & grocery market is forecast to grow 15.0% between 2019-2024-considerably higher than that achieved in the five years prior-as macroeconomic uncertainty drives inflation across core categories.
- The future of the UK's relationship with the EU post-Brexit will be pivotal for food operators, with a no-deal Brexit likely to cause elevated inflation levels (as a result of imposed tariffs) and issues around availability.
- Sustainability is becoming an increasingly visible metric against which consumers rate supermarkets, with 93.5% of UK consumers stating that it is the responsibility of retailers to act sustainably.
- With almost a quarter of all consumers identifying as having a dietary requirement, supermarkets now need to fully integrate free-from ranges into their proposition, rather than considering it an optional extra.
- While l-f-l sales growth at the discounters is beginning to show signs of slowing, aggressive expansion plans from Aldi and Lidl-coupled with growing consumer awareness of the food proposition at non-food specialists such as B&M and Poundland-will see the discounter channel grow 25.0% over the next five years.
Reasons to buy
- Understand the dynamics of the food & grocery market and identify fast-growing sub-sectors, allowing you to tailor your sales mix to better meet the needs of your customers.
- Gain insight into the far-reaching trends affecting the food & grocery market-including the impact of Brexit, the importance of sustainability investment, and the need for retailers to adapt quicker to changing diets-to allow you to better prepare strategies for long-term success.
- Learn how the major players are investing in the online channel, enabling you to evaluate the importance of online delivery to your customers and how to adapt to the changing landscape.
- See how non-food discounter specialists, such as B&M, are posing a threat to traditional food retailers, and reveal how best to fend off competition from price-orientated rivals.
Products
Products
Alcohol, Ambient, Availability, Bakery, Beer, Big Four, Brexit, Cereals, Channels, Chilled, Cider, Click & Collect, Convenience, Customer Service, Dairy, Dairy-free, Deflation, Diets, Discounters, E-cigarettes, Ethics, EU, Fats, Fish, Food, Foodservice, Free-from, Frozen, Fruit, Grocery, Home delivery, Hot drinks, Household products, Inflation, Instore, Margins, Market share, Meat, No-deal, Oils, Online, Out-of-town, Pet food, Plant-based, Plastic, Price, Product rotation, Quality, Range, Shopping frequency, Soft drinks, Spirits, Sugar, Sustainability, Takeaway, Tariffs, Third-party pickup, Tobacco, Town centre, Value for money, Vegan, Vegetables, Vegetarian, Volume, Wine, WTO
Companies
Aldi
ASDA
B&M
Birds Eye
Co-op
Deliveroo
Home Bargains
Iceland
Just Eat
Lidl
M&S
McColl's
Morrisons
Nisa
Poundland
Quorn
Sainsbury's
Tesco
Waitrose & Partners
Walkers
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
THE HOT ISSUES
Market drivers and inhibitors in food & grocery
Main issues in food & grocery
Availability impact of a no-deal Brexit in January remains greatest macro-economic concern for supermarkets
Despite adverse external pressures, retailers need to protect margins to enable quicker investment in strategy
Sustainability investment must be tempered
Retailers must adapt faster to changing diet requirements
Strategies for success
WHAT PEOPLE BUY
Headlines
The sector at a glance
Overall sector size
Overall sector growth
Category dynamics: Food
Category dynamics: Food by storage
Food: Sub-category growth
Category dynamics: Tobacco & e-cigarettes
Tobacco & e-cigarettes: Sub-category growth
Category dynamics: Alcoholic drinks
Alcoholic drinks: Sub-category growth
Category dynamics: Soft drinks
Category dynamics: Household products
Category dynamics: Hot drinks
Spend per head
Online dynamics
WHERE PEOPLE SHOP
Channels of distribution
Market shares of major food & grocery retailers
Historic market shares of major food & grocery retailers
Top ten most visited retailers for food & grocery
Top ten most purchased from retailers for food & grocery
Retailer profiles
ASDA
Morrisons
Sainsbury's
Tesco
Aldi
Lidl
Co-op
Marks & Spencer
Waitrose & Partners
Iceland
Competitor dynamics
HOW PEOPLE SHOP
Who shops and where they are located
Which categories they buy
Channels used by consumers
Fulfilment methods used by consumers
Frequency of shopping
WHY PEOPLE SHOP
What's important when purchasing food & grocery
Likelihood of recommending a retailer
METHODOLOGY
What is included
Market sizing
List of Figure
List of Figures
Impact of Brexit outcome on UK food & grocery market growth, 2020e-2022e
Percentage point change in operating margin of selected supermarkets, 2015-2018
Subsector growth in food & grocery, 2019e-2024e
Overall food & grocery: size of the market 2014-2024e
Overall food & grocery: growth rates 2014-2024e
Food: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e
Food subsector expenditure and growth by storage type, 2014, 2019e and 2024e
Food: expenditure and growth by subcategory, 2014, 2019e and 2024e
Tobacco & e-cigarettes: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e
Tobacco & e-cigarettes: expenditure and growth by subcategory, 2014, 2019e and 2024e
Alcoholic drinks: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e
Alcoholic drinks: expenditure and growth by subcategory, 2014, 2019e and 2024e
Soft drinks: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e
Household products: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e
Hot drinks: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e
Food & grocery spend per head, 2019-2024e
Online food & grocery penetration, 2014-2024e
Online food & grocery size and growth rates, 2014-2024e
Channel splits for food & grocery, 2019e and 2024e
Market shares of the top 10 food & grocery retailers, 2018 and 2019e
Top 10 most visited food & grocery retailers, 2018 and 2019
Top 10 most purchased from food & grocery retailers, 2018 and 2019
ASDA: consumer dynamics and where else they shop, 2019
ASDA: food & grocery market share, 2014-2019e
Morrisons: consumer dynamics and where else they shop, 2019
Morrisons: food & grocery market share, 2014-2019e
Sainsbury's: consumer dynamics and where else they shop, 2019
Sainsbury's: food & grocery market share, 2014-2019e
Tesco: consumer dynamics and where else they shop, 2019
Tesco: food & grocery market share, 2014-2019e
Aldi: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e
Lidl: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e
Co-op: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e
Marks & Spencer: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e
Waitrose & Partners: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e
Iceland: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e
Food & grocery penetration, by demographic and region, 2019
Profile of food & grocery shoppers by demographic and region, 2019
Frequency of food & grocery purchases by demographic, 2019
Factors of importance when purchasing food & grocery, 2018 and 2019
Likelihood of recommending a retailer to a friend for top 10 retailers, 2019
List of Table
List of Tables
Food & grocery market expenditure by category, 2019e and 2024e
Spend per head on food & grocery by age group, 2019
Food & grocery expenditure by channel, 2019e and 2024e
Market shares for top 10 food & grocery retailers, 2014-2019e
Competitor overlap for top 10 players, 2019
Penetration by subcategory, 2019
Shopper profile by subcategory, 2019
Penetration by food storage type, 2019
Shopper profile by food storage type, 2019
Channel usage by demographic (instore, online, mail order & catalogue), 2019
Store format usage by demographic (out-of-town, town centre, convenience, online), 2019
Fulfilment methods used by demographic (home delivery, click & collect, third-party pickup), 2019
Factors of importance when purchasing food & grocery by demographic, 2019
Factors of importance when purchasing food & grocery by most used retailer, 2019
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