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UK Neighbourhood and Convenience retail - Verdict Channel Report

UK Neighbourhood and Convenience retail - Verdict Channel Report

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Executive Summary

Neighbourhood and convenience retail remain fast growth markets, especially when compared to the rest of the physical retail sector. Over the next five years, the structure of the market will shift as multiple retailers continue to take advantage of growth and expand quickly.

Key Findings

Key metrics of neighbourhood retail: sales growth, space, store numbers, store sizes and sales densities

Analysis of convenience stores and small grocers, off-licences, CTNs, food specialists and pharmacies in neighbourhood locations

Comprehensive analysis of the issues impacting the market, identifying emerging trends and growth opportunities, recommending strategies for success


Tesco remains the convenience market leader and will have more than doubled its sales through convenience in the five years to 2014e, overtaking The Co-op, SPAR and Musgrave. These retailers have seen sales growth over the past five years, but they have been unable to keep up with the rapid expansion of the sector.

Legislation will impact smaller neighbourhood and convenience stores over the coming years, especially those focusing on grocery products.

Reasons To Buy

Analyse the impact of the ongoing and evolving growth of grocers in the sector. How will this impact range development?

Who are the leaders of the UK convenience and neighbourhood markets

1 Overview

2 Key Findings

2.1 Neighbourhood share of total retail will stagnate

2.2 Neighbourhood will outpace other locations, but not online

2.3 The Co-op group dominates the neighbourhood market, but is losing share fast

2.4 Tesco continues to gain convenience market share

2.5 Online opportunities for convenience will be mixed

2.6 Smaller stores will be adversely impacted by new legislation

2.7 Multiples expanding will put pressure on smaller players

2.8 The Co-operative economy will continue, but the group must evolve

3 Sector Trends

3.1 Is there an opportunity for convenience online?

3.1.1 Opportunities for smaller retailers are limited

3.1.2 Symbol groups should use their scale to trial an online offer

3.1.3 How important will click & collect be for convenience?

3.1.4 More stores must become parcel collection points

3.2 Tobacco legislation to have the greatest impact on convenience retailers

3.2.1 Smaller stores disproportionately affected by tobacco display ban

3.2.2 Plain packaging on tobacco products will bring down sales

3.2.3 Potential banning of and restrictions on products will impact convenience stores

3.2.4 Reduction in business rates will provide significant relief for smaller retailers

3.2.5 Alcohol pricing legislation will have little impact on retailers

3.2.6 Exemption of smaller retailers in England should not stop them adopting plastic bag tax

3.3 What is the future for co-operatives?

3.3.1 Co-operative image shaken by group turmoil

3.3.2 The Co-op group must re-connect with members

3.3.3 Pharmacy sell off will lean the business

3.3.4 Regional groups have potential to grow

3.4 Which retailers are expanding in convenience?

3.4.1 Expansion will continue in this market

3.4.2 New space will continue to appear, despite economic recovery

3.4.3 Strategies to help smaller retailers survive

4 Market Size and Forecast

4.1 Definition

4.2 Neighbourhood expenditure, 2009-19e

4.3 Neighbourhood versus total retail, 2009-19e

4.4 Neighbourhood expenditure versus other locations, 2009-19e

4.5 Neighbourhood store numbers and space

5 Market Shares

5.1 Expenditure

5.2 Market share

6 Location Analysis

6.1 Neighbourhood sales by sector

7 Methodology

7.1 Neighbourhood market

8 Appendix

8.1 About Verdict Retail

8.2 Disclaimer

Figure 1: A Hubbub delivery van, 2014

Figure 2: SPAR promoting its charitable work on its website, 2014

Figure 3: Budgens Discover the Taste meal solutions, 2014

Figure 4: Asda promoting its click & collect service, 2014

Figure 5: Tesco's click & collect service at Rayners Lane tube station, 2014

Figure 6: Amazon locker in The Co-operative's Old Street, London store, 2014

Figure 7: Landmark Wholesale tobacco display, 2014

Figure 8: Example of price-marked tobacco packaging in the UK, 2014

Figure 9: Example of Australian plain packaged cigarettes, 2014

Figure 10: Scottish government communication on minimum pricing, 2014

Figure 11: Waitrose Community Matters scheme where customers choose which cause to support, 2014

Figure 12: The Co-operative group grocery shoppers versus group membership (million), 2009-13

Figure 13: Three co-op stores from three operators, 2014

Figure 14: Morrisons M local convenience format, 2014

Figure 15: Blockbuster is one retailer that has closed down since the recession, 2014

Figure 16: Costcutter has entered into a joint venture with Mace, 2014

Figure 17: Amazon locker in The Co-operative's Old Street, London store, 2014

Figure 18: Tesco promoting its Farm to Fork scheme, 2014

Figure 19: UK neighbourhood retail sales (GBPm), 2009-19e

Figure 20: Neighbourhood growth versus total retail (%), 2009-19e

Figure 21: Breakdown of total retail spending by location (%), 2009, 2014e and 2019e

Figure 22: Growth of retail sales by location (%), 2009-19e

Figure 23: Neighbourhood store numbers, 2009-19e

Figure 24: Y-o-y change in store numbers by location (%), 2009-19e

Figure 25: Neighbourhood space (m sq ft), 2009-19e

Figure 26: Y-o-y change in retail space by location (%), 2009-19e

Figure 27: Growth of sales densities by location (%), 2009-19e

Figure 28: Neighbourhood market share changes of top 10 retailers (percentage point), 2014e on 2009

Figure 29: Components of neighbourhood expenditure (%), 2009, 2014e and 2019e

Figure 30: Spending growth via neighbourhood channels (%), 2009-19e

Table 1: Neighbourhood market definition and methodology, 2014

Table 2: UK neighbourhood retail sales (GBPm), 2009-19e

Table 3: UK neighbourhood retail sales versus total UK retail sales (GBPm), 2009-19e

Table 4: Retail spending by location (GBPm), 2009-19e

Table 5: Retail spending by location (GBPm), 2009-19e

Table 6: Total store space by location (m sq ft), 2009-19e

Table 7: Sales densities by location (GBP/sq ft), 2009-19e

Table 8: Neighbourhood revenues of top 10 retailers in UK neighbourhood market for

Table 9: Neighbourhood revenues of top 10 retailers in UK neighbourhood market for calendar years (GBPm), 2009-14e

Table 10: Distribution of neighbourhood expenditure by location, 2009-19e

Table 11: Distribution of neighbourhood expenditure by location, 2009-19e

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