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UK Out of Town Retailing | Verdict Channel Report

UK Out of Town Retailing | Verdict Channel Report


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Executive Summary

Sales through out of town are set to increase by 2.4% in 2014, outperforming both town centre, and neighborhood, for the first time in three years. However, while it starts out strong, this growth will plateau with both town centre and neighborhood passing it, in terms of sales growth, by 2019. In order to drive footfall, out of town must develop its overall mix to serve a wider customer base.

Key Findings

Gain a greater understanding of the major issues set to impact out of town over the next five years. How can you capitalize on these changes?

Use our winners and losers & sector analysis sections to benchmark performance against the market and your main competitors. How do you stack up?

Shape future expansion strategies by comparing out of town against neighborhood and town centre across a number of metrics.

Synopsis

Food & grocery has dominated out of town in terms of its share of sales and space up to 2019 but sales densities are set to struggle. To reverse this, grocers need to drive traffic to stores, with click and collect being one option. However, inertia for click and collect exists among shoppers and grocers may have to coerce shoppers into using it.

One trend we expect to emerge within out of town is the continued shift towards softer sector such as clothing and general merchandisers as well as offering more leisure options. Such a change will be beneficial to retail park owners as it widens the potential customer base, drives footfall and increases dwell time.

While improving, sales densities through out of town will grow by only 2.8% between 2014 and 2019. This is due solely to grocers who will continue to expand despite the prevailing trend within grocery being the demand for smaller top-up shops. Densities will improve in the other sectors however as retailers remain cautious about opening new space.

Reasons To Buy

How does out of town compare to other physical channels in terms of sales & space growth and sales densities over the next five years?

How will grocery retailers compare to non-grocery up to 2019 and what issues will affect these retailers?

After a torrid time throughout the downturn, how will the home related sectors (DIY & furniture and floor coverings) perform in 2014?

1 Outlook

Out of town to be strongest growing physical channel in 2014

However, the channel will be unable to build on this momentum

Food & grocery continues to dominate channel

Grocers must overcome inertia in combining online and out of town stores

Home-related sectors set to experience a resurgence

OOT offer set to shift toward softer sectors and leisure

2 Retail Issues

The mix of OOT retail parks is changing

2.1.1 Clothing retailers and general merchandisers set to outpace other non-grocery sectors

2.1.2 Driving footfall a challenge for clothing retailers

2.1.3 Landlords aiming to achieve a greater mix of retailers

2.1.4 Private equity backing will drive the expansion of general merchandisers

2.1.5 Value retailers grow their presence out of town

Grocers space expansion set to continue, though use set to change

2.1.6 The vast majority of new space to enter out of town will come from food & grocery

2.1.7 Supermarkets remain the dominant format, but online and convenience offer more potential

2.1.8 Click & collect will help drive sales

2.1.9 with advantages to both the grocer and customer

2.1.10 Following successful trials, grocers are developing their click & collect offer rapidly

2.1.11 Despite this investment, inertia exists among customers

2.1.12 Raising the delivery charge is one option, though this is risky

2.1.13 Incentivising could help shoppers convert

Leisure increasingly important to out of town

2.1.14 More leisure activities are appearing on retail parks

2.1.15 More leisure activities offer a number of benefits

2.1.16 Activities for children should be considered

2.1.17 Applying for change of use can cause delays

Out of town retailers set to reduce space by sub-letting

2.1.18 More traditional out of town retailers are actively looking to reduce their space

2.1.19 Sub-letting has been used mainly by DIY retailers

2.1.20 Sub-letting offers a number of advantages for DIY retailers

2.1.21 Grocers are also considering sub-letting space, primarily to non-retail activities

3 Strategies for Success

Adjusting offer to appeal to more customers is key

3.1.1 Aim to attract different retailers to increase diversity

3.1.2 Include more leisure activities to engage families and increase dwell time

3.1.3 Grocers need to convince shoppers to use click & collect

3.1.4 Grocers should focus on growing densities rather than space

3.1.5 Improve like-for-like sales

3.1.6 Remain ruthless with underperforming space

4 Winners and Losers

Grocers and better financial prospects support out of town

4.1.1 Supermarkets dominate out of town

4.1.2 Dunelm Mill set to outperform in 2014

4.1.3 Home-related sectors set to flourish as conditions improve

4.1.4 Out of town retailers actively aiming to be more efficient

OOT sales-majors breakdown

4.1.5 Asda and home related retailers gain ground

Total sales

4.1.6 Better conditions support DIY

Operating profit

4.1.7 Biggest gains made by Dunelm and Sainsburys

Operating margin

4.1.8 Cost management becomes key for retailers

Space

4.1.9 Space slows significantly in financial years to 2014e

Store numbers

4.1.10 While space is slowing, retailers continue to open stores

Advertising

4.1.11 Advertising spend sacrificed to keep cost bases down

5 Location Comparison

Physical retailers set to return to growth yet underperform non-store retail

Retail sales by location

5.1.1 An improved housing market drives sales through out of town

5.1.2 After four years of declines, town centre returned to growth in 2013

5.1.3 Neighbourhood continues its recent strong performance

Retail spend by location

Space by location

5.1.4 Out of town space grows at the expense of town centres

5.1.5 Space growth occurs in neighbourhood for the first time in Verdicts history

5.1.6 Improvement by all channels driven by neighbourhood

Sales densities by location

Store numbers by location

5.1.7 Store numbers overall continue to fall, but neighbourhood suffers most casualties

Channel forecast up to 2019

5.1.8 Momentum within neighbourhood set to continue

Retail spend by location

5.1.9 Non-store set to drive overall retail growth

Space by location

5.1.10 Out of town space growth will be strong due to IKEA and grocers

Sales densities by location

5.1.11 Town centres will achieve the greatest uplift in sales densities

Store numbers by location

5.1.12 Food & grocery through neighbourhood and out of town drive store growth

6 Space Performance

Sales densities by retailer

6.1.1 Big ticket specialists greater caution over opening space boosts densities in 2014

Grocery space performance vs non-grocery

6.1.2 Non-grocery space will outperform toward 2015

Sales densities by sector

6.1.3 Specialist electricals retailers benefit from consolidation

7 Sector Summaries and Forecasts

OOT sales breakdown by sector

7.1.1 Grocers increase share of OOT sales as online growth impacts other sectors

OOT consumer spending by sector

7.1.2 Neighbourhood expansion dents out of town in grocers mix

OOT sales by sector

7.1.3 Electricals is only sector to decline between 2014e and 2019e as it shifts further to online

OOT space sector breakdown

7.1.4 Continued dominance of grocery reduces share of other OOT sectors

Year-on-year change in total OOT space

7.1.5 OOT space to recover as economic upturn supports channel

OOT store numbers sector breakdown

7.1.6 General merchandisers and grocers overtake store numbers in slimmed down furniture market

Year-on-year change in overall OOT store numbers

7.1.7 Numbers to recover as fewer retailers are forced out of the channel

Average store size by sector

7.1.8 DIY is only sector where space declines as it aims to make existing space work harder

Clothing & footwear

7.1.9 Discount-led formats support OOT clothing & footwear market

DIY & gardening

Electricals

7.1.10 Comet closure dents OOT sales in 2013

Food & grocery

7.1.11 Grocers OOT growth slows

Furniture & floorcoverings

7.1.12 Housing market recovery helps sector achieve strongest growth in last decade

General merchandisers

7.1.13 Value-and hobby-based retailers ensure general merchandise remains ahead in OOT

8 Appendix

Abbreviations

9 Appendix

About Verdict Retail

Disclaimer

Figure 1: Change in out of town space mix (%), 2014-19e

Figure 2: Asda Drive Thru collection point

Figure 3: Customers still want home delivery option

Figure 4: Each key retailer- out of town vs overall sales growth, 2014e

Figure 5: Key out of town retailers total sales growth (%), 2014e on 2009

Figure 6: Keyoutoftownretailerstotalsalesgrowth(%),2014eon2013

Figure 7: Key out of town retailers total space growth (%), 2014 on 2009 (financial year end)

Figure 8: Key out of town retailers total space growth (%), 2014e on 2013 (financial year end)

Figure 9: Key out of town retailers total store number growth (%), 2014e on 2009 (financial year end)

Figure 10: Key out of town retailers total store number growth (%), 2014e on 2013 (financial year end)

Figure 11: Growth of retail sales by location (excluding non-store), 2004-14e

Figure 12: Share of total retail expenditure by location (%), 2004-14e

Figure 13: L-f-l growth by location (%), 2004-14e

Figure 14: Deflation/inflation by location (%), 2004-14e

Figure 15: Y-o-y change in retail space by location (%), 2004-14e

Figure 16: Y-o-y change in retail store numbers by location (%), 2004-14e

Figure 17: Growth of retail sales by location, excluding non-store (%), 2014e-19e

Figure 18: Share of total retail expenditure by location (%), 2014e-19e

Figure 19: L-f-l growth by location (%), 2014-19e

Figure 20: Y-o-y change in retail space by location (%), 2014e-19e

Figure 21: Y-o-y change in retail store numbers by location (%), 2014e-19e

Figure 22: Change in sales density of key out of town retailers (%), 2014e on 2009

Figure 23: Change in sales density of key out of town retailers (%), 2014e on 2013

Figure 24: Grocery vs non-grocery space (million sq ft), 2009-19e

Figure 25: Grocery vs non-grocery sales densities (GBP/sq ft), 2009-19e

Figure 26: Change in sales density (%), by sector, 2019e on 2014e

Figure 27: Share of out of town sales (%), by sector, 2004, 2009 and 2014e

Figure 28: Out of town sales growth (%), by sector, 2004-09 and 2009-14e

Figure 29: Share of out of town space (%), by sector, 2004, 2009 and 2014e

Figure 30: Out of town space growth (%), 2004-19e

Figure 31: Share of out of town store numbers (%), by sector, 2004, 2009 and 2014e

Figure 32: New out of town store number growth (%), 2004-19e

Figure 33: Average out of town store size (000 sq ft), by sector, 2004, 2009 and 2014e

Figure 34: Clothing & footwear out of town sales growth vs clothing & footwear sales growth in other locations and out of town sales growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 35: Clothing & footwear out of town space growth vs clothing & footwear space growth in other locations and out of town space growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 36: DIY & gardening out of town sales growth vs DIY & gardening sales growth in other locations and out of town sales growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 37: DIY & gardening out of town space growth vs DIY & gardening space growth in other locations and out of town space growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 38: Electricals out of town sales growth vs electricals sales growth in other locations and out of town sales growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 39: Electricals out of town space growth vs electricals space growth in other locations and out of town space growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 40: Food & grocery out of town sales growth vs food & grocery sales growth in other locations and out of town sales growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 41: Food & grocery out of town space growth vs food & grocery space growth in other locations and out of town space growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 42: Furniture & floorcoverings out of town sales growth vs furniture & floorcoverings sales growth in other locations and out of town sales growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 43: Furniture & floorcoverings out of town space growth vs furniture & floorcoverings space growth in other locations and out of town space growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 44: General merchandisers out of town sales growth vs general merchandisers sales growth in other locations and out of town sales growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Figure 45: General merchandisers out of town space growth vs general merchandisers space growth in other locations and out of town space growth in other sectors (%), 2009-14e

Table 1: 10 Key retailers estimated share of out of town sales (%), 2009-14e

Table 2: 10 Key out of town retailers total UK retail turnover record (GBPm), 2009-14e

Table 3: 10 Key out of town retailers operating profit (GBPm), 2008-13

Table 4: 10 Key out of town retailers operating margin (%), 2008-13

Table 5: 10 Key out of town retailers total selling space (000 sq ft), 2009-14e

Table 6: 10 Key out of town retailers store numbers, 2009-14e

Table 7: 10 Top 10 profiled out of town retailers by advertising expenditure (GBPm), 2012

Table 8: 10 Retail location definitions, 2014

Table 9: 10 Retail spending by location at current prices (GBPm), 2004-14e

Table 10: 10 Floor space in all physical channels (m sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 11: 10 Sales densities by location (GBP/sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 12: 10 Store numbers by location, 2004-14e

Table 13: 10 Retail spending by location at current prices (GBPm), 2014e-19e

Table 14: 10 Floor space in all physical channels (m sq ft), 2014e-19e

Table 15: 10 Sales densities by location (GBP/sq ft), 2014e-19e

Table 16: 10 Store numbers by location, 2014e-19e

Table 17: 10 Key out of town retailers densities (GBP/sq ft) based on overall sales (ex VAT) including online, 2008-14e

Table 18: 10 Superstore/out of town sales densities (GBP/sq ft), by sector, 2004-19e

Table 19: 10 Superstore/out of town sales densities (GBP/sq ft), by sector, 2004-19e

Table 20: 10 Sales derived from out of town channel (%), by sector, 2004-19e

Table 21: 10 Out of town sales (GBPm), by sector, 2004-19e

Table 22: 10 Out of town sales (GBPm), by sector, 2004-19e

Table 23: 10 Out of town space (000 sq ft), by sector, 2004-19e

Table 24: 10 Out of town space (000 sq ft), by sector, 2004-19e

Table 25: 10 Out of town store numbers, by sector, 2004-19e

Table 26: 10 Out of town store numbers, by sector, 2004-19e

Table 27: 10 Clothing & footwear specialists out of town sales (GBPm), 2004-14e

Table 28: 10 Clothing & footwear specialists out of town space (000 sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 29: 10 Clothing & footwear specialists out of town store numbers, 2004-14e

Table 30: 10 Clothing & footwear specialists out of town sales densities (GBP/sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 31: 10 DIY & gardening specialists out of town sales (GBPm), 2004-14e

Table 32: 10 DIY & gardening specialists out of town space (000 sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 33: 10 DIY & gardening specialists out of town store numbers, 2004-14e

Table 34: 10 DIY & gardening specialists out of town sales densities (GBP/sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 35: 10 Electricals specialists out of town sales (GBPm), 2004-14e

Table 36: 10 Electricals specialists out of town space (000,sft), 2004-14e

Table 37: 10 Electricals specialists out of town store numbers, 2004-14e

Table 38: 10 Electricals specialists out of town sales densities (GBP/sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 39: 10 Food & grocery specialists out of town sales (GBPm), 2004-14e

Table 40: 10 Food & grocery specialists out of town space (000 sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 41: 10 Food & grocery specialists out of town store numbers, 2004-14e

Table 42: 10 Food & grocery specialists out of town sales densities (GBP/sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 43: 10 Furniture & floorcoverings specialists out of town sales (GBPm), 2004-14e

Table 44: 10 Furniture & floorcoverings specialists out of town space (000 sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 45: 10 Furniture & floorcoverings specialists out of town store numbers, 2004-14e

Table 46: 10 Furniture & floorcoverings specialists out of town sales densities (GBP/sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 47: 10 General merchandise specialists out of town sales (GBPm), 2004-14e

Table 48: 10 General merchandise specialists out of town space (000 sq ft), 2004-14e

Table 49: 10 General merchandise specialists out of town store numbers, 2004-14e

Table 50: 10 General merchandise specialists out of town sales densities (GBP/sq ft), 2004-14e

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