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Future of the Estonian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

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Future of the Estonian Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

"Future of the Estonian Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023", published by GlobalData, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

This report offers detailed analysis of the Estonian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following-

- The Estonian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Estonian defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porter's Five Force analysis of the Estonian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Estonian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Scope

- Estonia is well known for its multi-vector foreign policy, with which it manages to maintain stable relations with all of its neighbors. It is a relatively peaceful country compared to other Central European nations, which encounter frequent turbulence. Estonia is also an active participant in the NATO Partnership for Peace Program. Growth in the Estonian defense market is primarily driven by the need to modernize the country's defense arsenal and Russia's military aggression in Ukraine, which had brought about the possibility of an armed conflict in Europe. The country's participation in peacekeeping operations and counter terrorism also fueled defense expenditure growth during the historic period.

- Over 2014-2018, Estonia's defense expenditure increased from USD 512.8 million in 2014 to USD 621.8 million in 2018, registering a CAGR of 4.93%. According to the Estonian Long Term Defence Development Plan 2013-2022, the majority was directed towards the ongoing armed fleet modernization program, with specific focus on the modernization of equipment. In the last few years, although in limited volumes, Estonia has consistently imported advanced arms and ammunitions such as armored vehicles, missiles and sensors to strengthen its armed forces.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Estonian defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the Estonian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts.

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Table Of Content

Scope

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 7

1.1. What is this Report About? 7

1.2. Definitions 7

1.3. Summary Methodology 9

1.4. About GlobalData 10

2. Executive Summary 11

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 12

3.1. Current Market Scenario 13

3.1.1. Military Fleet Size 13

3.1.2. Procurement Programs 17

3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges 19

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 21

3.2.1. Estonia's annual defense expenditure to reach USD 970.3 million by 2023 21

3.2.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and peacekeeping missions to drive Estonia's defense expenditure 23

3.2.3. The country's defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 2.8% over the forecast period 24

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 26

3.3.1. Capital expenditure's share of the overall defense budget to increase considerably over the forecast period 26

3.3.2. Capital expenditure budget is expected to increase over the forecast period 28

3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 30

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 32

3.4.1. Estonia's homeland security budget is projected to increase at a CAGR of 2.42% over the forecast period 32

3.4.2. Cybercrime is the main driving factor behind homeland security expenditure 34

3.4.3. Estonia is at some risk from external and internal threats 35

3.4.4. Estonia faces a moderate threat from terrorist organizations 36

3.4.5. Estonia has a terrorism index score of 0.5 38

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 39

3.5.1. Estonia's defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 8.76% over the forecast period 39

3.5.2. Estonia's military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure 41

3.5.3. Estonia allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense 42

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 43

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million)-Projections over 2018-2023 43

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 44

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 45

4.1.1. The country's current need to modernize its armed forces will drive defense imports 45

4.1.2. The Netherlands was the leading supplier of arms to Estonia during the historic period; a trend that is expected to continue over the forecast period 46

4.1.3. Armored vehicles accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2013-2017 47

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 48

4.2.1. Estonia does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry 48

5. Market Entry Strategy 49

5.1. Market Regulation 49

5.1.1. Estonia has not disclosed any offset obligations 49

5.1.2. Regulations relating to foreign direct investment (FDI) in the defense sector have not been disclosed by the government 49

5.2. Market Entry Route 50

5.2.1. Budgeting Process 50

5.2.2. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs 51

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 52

6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 52

6.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver them to Estonia 52

7. Business Environment and Country Risk 53

7.1. Economic Performance 53

7.1.1. GDP Per Capita 53

7.1.2. GDP, Current Prices 54

7.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Million) 55

7.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Million) 56

7.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (USD Million) 57

7.1.6. Local Currency Unit per USD 58

7.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USD Billion) 59

7.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 60

7.1.9. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 61

7.1.10. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 62

7.1.11. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP 63

7.1.12. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP 64

7.1.13. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current USD Million) 65

7.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 66

7.1.15. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 67

8. Appendix 68

8.1. About GlobalData 68

8.2. Disclaimer 68


List Of Figure

List of Figures

Figure 1: Estonia Defense Expenditure (EUR Million), 2014-2023 22

Figure 2: Estonia Defense Expenditure (USD Million), 2014-2023 22

Figure 3: Estonia GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 25

Figure 4: Estonia Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 27

Figure 5: Estonia Capital Budget Expenditure (EUR Million),2014-2023 29

Figure 6: Estonia Capital Budget Allocation (USD Million), 2014-2023 29

Figure 7: Estonia Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 31

Figure 8: Estonia Homeland Security Budget (EUR Million), 2014-2023 33

Figure 9: Estonia Homeland Security Budget (USD Million), 2014-2023 33

Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 35

Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 38

Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 40

Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (USD Million), 2018 and 2023 41

Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 42

Figure 15: Estonia Defense Import Trend (USD Million), 2013-2017 (TIV Values) 45

Figure 16: Estonia Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 46

Figure 17: Estonia Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 47

Figure 18: Estonia GDP Per Capita (USD ), 2015-2025 53

Figure 19: Estonia GDP, Current Prices (USD Million), 2015-2025 54

Figure 20: Estonia Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Million), 2005-2014 55

Figure 21: Estonia Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Million), 2005-2014 56

Figure 22: Estonia Gross National Disposable Income (USD Million), 2005-2012 57

Figure 23: Local Currency per USD , 2015-2024 58

Figure 24: Estonia Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USD Billion), 2005-2012 59

Figure 25: Estonia Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 60

Figure 26: Estonia Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 61

Figure 27: Estonia Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 62

Figure 28: Estonia Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 63

Figure 29: Estonia Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 64

Figure 30: Estonia Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current USD Million), 2005-2013 65

Figure 31: Estonia Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 66

Figure 32: Estonia Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 67


List Of Table

List of Tables

Table 1: Estonian Ground Forces Strength 13

Table 2: Estonian Air Force Strength 15

Table 3: Estonian Navy Strength 16

Table 4: Estonia-Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs (USD Million) 17

Table 5: Estonia-Future Procurement Programs 18

Table 6: Estonia Defense Expenditure (EUR Million and USD Million), 2014-2023 21

Table 7: Estonia GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (%), 2014-2023 24

Table 8: Estonia Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 26

Table 9: Estonia Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Million & USD Million), 2014-2023 28

Table 10: Estonia Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 30

Table 11: Estonia Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR Million and USD Million), 2014-2023 32

Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2018 36

Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 39

Table 14: Estonia-Top Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million), 2018-2023 43

Table 15: Estonia Budget Formation Timetable 50

Table 16: Competitive Landscape of the Estonia Defense Industry 52

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Products and Companies

Products

Defense, budget, offset, regulation, capital expenditure, homeland, drivers, market opportunities, procurement, entry route, key challenge, announcements, alliances, contract awards, financial analysis, business environment


Companies

BAE Systems

Hanwha Group

Saab

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Milrem AS

FLIR Systems