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Future of the Iraqi Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Future of the Iraqi Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020


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Executive Summary

The prevailing instability has made it imperative for the Iraqi defense ministry to make significant investments to strengthen its defense capabilities. The Iraqi MoD has increased its defense budget substantially in the last two years, with US$21.1 billion allotted for 2015. The budget is projected to reach US$24.1 billion by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 4.97%.

Key Findings

- Iraqi defense expenditure recorded a CAGR of 15.95% between 2011 and 2015, and values US$21.1 billion in 2015

- The country's total defense expenditure during the forecast period is expected to be US$109.6 billion

- The average share of capital expenditure is expected to be 23.6% over the forecast period, compared to an average share of 20.7% during 2011-2015

- The key areas of investment are expected to be aircraft, helicopter, armored vehicles, and surveillance equipment

Synopsis

Strategic Defense Intelligence's Iraqi Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020report offers detailed analysis with market size forecasts for 2016-2020. The factors that influence demand, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants are also covered.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Defense industry market size from 2016-2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. A snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns are provided

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. The key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country are also detailed

- Porter's five forces analysis: study the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and export dynamics: review the prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: identify the top five defense investment opportunities from 2015 to 2025

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: including an overview of leading players, key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy

- Identify and track the global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams

- Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders,

technical specifications,

and the country's expected investment pattern during 2016-2020

- Make correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the industry from 2016-2020, which includes the total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis

- Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities

Channelize resources by identifying various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2016-2020

1 Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?

1.2. Definitions

1.3. Summary Methodology

1.4. SDI Terrorism Index

1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

3.1.1. Defense expenditure is expected to cumulatively amount for US$109.6 billion over the forecast period

3.1.2. Counter terrorism, capacity building, and combating local insurgencies are expected to be the key factors driving defense expenditure

3.1.3. Iraq to allocate an average of 9.9% of its GDP towards military expenditure over the forecast period

3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

3.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation to grow considerably over the forecast period

3.2.2. Military equipment procurement in the wake of war with ISIS is expected to drive defense capital expenditure

3.2.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period

3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast

3.3.1. Fighting terrorism, controlling sectarian violence, and oil infrastructure protection will be the key factors driving homeland security

3.3.2. Iraq considered at 'worst affected' of terrorist attack

3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets

3.4.1. Iraq to be among the fastest-growing defense spenders

3.4.2. Iraq allocates a high percentage of its GDP towards the defense sector

3.4.3. Iraq faces highest risk of terror attacks

3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers

3.5.1. Fighters & Multi-Role Aircraft

3.5.2. Attack helicopters

3.5.3. Multi-mission Helicopter MRO

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Market Dynamics

4.1.1. Defense industry is heavily import driven

4.1.2. The US and Russia are the prime defense equipment suppliers to Iraq

4.1.3. Armored vehicles and aircraft dominate Iraqi defense imports

4.2. Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1. Iraqs defense export market is negligible

5 Industry Dynamics

5.1. Five Forces Analysis

5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium

5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: low

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium to high

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: medium to high

6 Market Entry Strategy

6.1. Market Regulation

6.1.1. The Iraqi Government allows FDI in the defense industry

6.1.2. Iraq has not disclosed any offset obligation

6.2. Market Entry Route

6.2.1. Government-to-government deals are an attractive entry route to the countrys defense market

6.2.2. Establishment of representative office obtains eligibility for participating in procurement tenders

6.3. Key Challenges

6.3.1. Corruption acts as an obstacle for market entry

6.3.2. Lack of skilled Labor

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview

7.1.1. Iraqi defense sector is dominated by foreign competitors

7.2. Key Foreign Companies

7.2.1. General Dynamics Corporation: overview

7.2.2. General Dynamics Corporation: products and services

7.2.3. General Dynamics: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.4. General Dynamics Corporation: alliances

7.2.5. General Dynamics Corporation: recent contract wins

7.2.6. Lockheed Martin: overview

7.2.7. Lockheed Martin: products and services

7.2.8. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.9. Lockheed Martin: alliances

7.2.10. Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins

7.2.11. BAE Systems Plc: overview

7.2.12. BAE Systems Plc: products and services

7.2.13. BAE Systems Plc: alliances

7.2.14. BAE Systems Plc: recent contract wins

7.2.15. Thales Raytheon Systems: overview

7.2.16. Thales Raytheon Systems: products and services

7.2.17. Thales Raytheon Systems: alliances

7.2.18. Thales Raytheon Systems: recent contract wins

7.2.19. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: overview

7.2.20. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: products and services

7.2.21. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.22. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.: recent contract wins

7.2.23. Raytheon: overview

7.2.24. Raytheon: products and services

7.2.25. Raytheon: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.26. Raytheon: alliances

7.2.27. Raytheon: recent contract wins

8 Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics

8.1.1. Population -Rural

8.1.2. Population - Urban

8.1.3. Population -Number of Households

8.2. Economic Performance

8.2.1. GDP per Capita

8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product

8.2.3. Gross National Disposable Income

8.2.4. Manufacturing Output

8.2.5. Consumer Price Index

8.2.6. LCU per US$ (period average)

8.2.7. LCU per Euro (period average)

8.2.8. International reserves, including gold

8.3. Energy and Utilities

8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation

8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation

8.3.3. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity

8.3.4. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas

8.3.5. Total Petroleum Consumption

8.3.6. Crude Oil Proved Reserves

8.4. Minerals

8.4.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output

8.5. Telecommunication

8.5.1. Telephone Lines

8.5.2. Telephone lines Penetration Rate

9 Appendix

9.1. About SDI

9.2. Disclaimer

Figure 1: Iraqi Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015

Figure 2: Iraqi Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020

Figure 3: Iraqi Defense Expenditure (IQD Billion), 2011-2015

Figure 4: Iraqi Defense Expenditure (IQD Billion), 2016-2020

Figure 5: Iraqi GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditures Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015

Figure 6: Iraqi GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020

Figure 7: Iraqi Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015

Figure 8: Iraqi Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020

Figure 9: Iraqi Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ bn), 2011-2015

Figure 10: Iraqi Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Bn), 2016-2020

Figure 11: Iraqi Capital Expenditure (IQD Billion), 2011-2015

Figure 12: Iraqi Capital Expenditure (IQD Billion), 2016-2020

Figure 13: Iraqi Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015

Figure 14: Iraqi Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020

Figure 15: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015

Figure 16: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015

Figure 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020

Figure 18: Benchmarking with Worlds Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020

Figure 19: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP, 2015

Figure 20: Fighters & Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025

Figure 21: Attack Helicopters Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025

Figure 22: Multi-mission Helicopter MRO Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025

Figure 23: Iraqi Defense Import Trend, 2010-2014 (TIV values)

Figure 24: Iraqi Defense Imports by Country (%), 2010-2014

Figure 25: Iraqi Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2010-2014

Figure 26: Industry Dynamics - Porters Five Forces Analysis

Figure 27: Iraqi Population - Rural (In Millions), 2010-2019

Figure 28: Iraqi Population - Urban (In Millions), 2010-2019

Figure 29: Iraqi Population - Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017

Figure 30: Iraqi GDP per Capita (US$), 2008-2017

Figure 31: Iraqi GDP (current US$ bn), 2010-2019

Figure 32: Iraqi Gross National disposable income (US$ Bn), 2002-2011

Figure 33: Iraqi Manufacturing Output (US$ Bn), 2003-2012

Figure 34: Iraqi Consumer Price Index, 2008-2017

Figure 35: Iraqi LCU per US$, 2009-2018

Figure 36: Iraqi LCU per Euro, 2008-2017

Figure 37: Iraqi International reserves, including gold (US$ Bn), 2002-2011

Figure 38: Iraqi Total Conventional Thermal Electricity net Generation (Bn Kilowatt Hours), 2001-2010

Figure 39: Iraqi Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Bn Kilowatt Hours), 2001-2010

Figure 40: Iraqi Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Mn Kilowatt Hours), 2001-2010

Figure 41: Iraqi Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004-2013

Figure 42: Iraqi Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2003-2012

Figure 43: Iraqi Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Bn Barrels), 2004-2013

Figure 44: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (in Millions), 2002-2011

Figure 45: Iraqi Telephone Lines (in Millions), 2003-2012

Figure 46: Iraqi Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people), 2003-2012

Table 1: Iraqi Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015

Table 2: Iraqi Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020

Table 3: Iraqi Defense Expenditure (IQD Billion), 2011-2015

Table 4: Iraqi Defense Expenditure (IQD Billion), 2016-2020

Table 5: Iraqi GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015

Table 6: Iraqi GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020

Table 7: Iraqi Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015

Table 8: Iraqi Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020

Table 9: Iraqi Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Bn), 2011-2015

Table 10: Iraqi Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ bn), 2016-2020

Table 11: Iraqi Capital Expenditure (IQD Billion), 2011-2015

Table 12: Iraqi Capital Expenditure (IQD Billion), 2016-2020

Table 13: Iraqi Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015

Table 14: Iraqi Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020

Table 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020

Table 16: SDI Terrorism Index

Table 17: Competitive Landscape of the Iraqi Defense Industry

Table 18: General Dynamics Corporation - Product Focus

Table 19: General Dynamics Corporation- Alliances

Table 20: General Dynamics Corporation - Recent Contract Wins

Table 21: Lockheed Martin - product focus

Table 22: Lockheed Martin - Alliances

Table 23: Lockheed Martin - Recent Contract Wins

Table 24: BAE Systems Plc.- Product Focus

Table 25: BAE Systems Plc.- Alliances

Table 26: BAE Systems Plc.- Recent Contract Wins

Table 27: Thales Raytheon Systems - product focus

Table 28: Thales Raytheon Systems - Alliances

Table 29: Thales Raytheon Systems - Recent Contract Wins

Table 30: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc. - Product Focus

Table 31: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc. - Recent Contract Wins

Table 32: Raytheon - Product Focus

Table 33: Raytheon - Alliances

Table 34: Raytheon - Recent Contract Wins

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General Dynamics Corporation

Lockheed Martin

BAE Systems

Thales Raytheon Systems

Bell Helicopter Textron

Raytheon

Defense, budget, offset, regulation, capital expenditure, homeland, drivers, market opportunities, procurement, entry route, key challenge, announcements, alliances, contract awards, financial analysis, business environment


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