Future of the Polish Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Polish Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023


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Executive Summary

Future of the Polish Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

The Future of the Polish Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Polish defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following

The Polish defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Polish defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

Porter's Five Force analysis of the Polish defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Polish defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

With one of the fastest growing markets and a high-income economy, Poland aims to accelerate the modernization rate of its Armed Forces in the coming years.

While most European countries have reduced their military spending between 2014 and 2018, Poland increased its expenditure on armed forces at a CAGR of 15.22% in terms of local currency, making it one of the largest in Central Europe. However, in terms of USUSD, Polish defense expenditure registered a CAGR of 12.90%, which is attributed to the fluctuations in exchange rates.

Poland's defense industry is the largest in Central Europe. During the forecast period, the country is expected to spend an estimated USUSD57.3 billion on strengthening its defense forces, primarily due to the modernization initiatives implemented by the Polish Ministry of National Defense (MoND).

Furthermore, the country's defense expenditure will be driven by a combination of factors including the ongoing turmoil in the neighboring country of Ukraine and an increased involvement in NATO and UN peacekeeping missions. Defense expenditure amounted to an average of 1.8% of overall GDP over 2014-2018, and is expected to increase drastically to an average of 2.5% of the GDP over next five years.

The MoD is expected to invest in Land Based C4ISR, Missile Defense Systems and Multirole Aircraft

Reasons to buy

This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Polish defense industry market trends for the coming five years

The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

A deep qualitative analysis of the Polish defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts



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Table of Contents

1. Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?

1.2. Definitions

1.3. Summary Methodology

1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Current Market Scenario

3.1.1. Primary threat perception

3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy

3.1.3. Military Fleet Size

3.1.4. Procurement Programs

Ongoing procurement programs

Future procurement programs

Top Procurement Programs By Value (USUSD Million) 2018-20

3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects

3.1.6. Political & Strategic Alliances

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

3.2.1. Polish defense expenditure is expected to reach USUSD16.8 billion by 2023

3.2.2. The Ukrainian crisis, military modernization initiatives and peacekeeping missions to fuel defense expenditure over the forecast period

3.2.3. Polish defense budget to be at 2.5% of GDP over 2018-20

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase during the forecast period

3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 6.09% over 2018-2022 40

3.3.3. The majority of the defense budget is allocated to military intelligence services and crisis response operations, which are anticipated to increase over the forecast period

3.3.4. 'Others' segment to continue accounting for the largest share of the Polish defense budget

3.3.5. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast

3.4.1. Polish homeland security market to increase at a CAGR of 2.06% over the forecast period

3.4.2. Homeland security expenditure to be triggered by the country's efforts to counter drug smuggling, human trafficking, and cyber attacks

3.4.3. Poland faces no known threat from terrorist organizations

3.4.4. Poland faces low level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations

3.4.5. Poland has a terrorism index score of �0.4�

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets

3.5.1. Poland's defense growth rate is expected to remain modest over the forecast period

3.5.2. Poland's defense spending is low compared to other European nations 60

3.5.3. Poland allocates a moderate share of GDP for defense expenditure

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators

3.6.1. Top Defense market sectors by value (USUSD Million)-Projections over period 2018-2023

3.6.2. C4ISR-Land Based

3.6.3. Missile Defense System

3.6.4. Multirole Aircraft

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Dynamics

4.1.1. Defense imports fluctuated during the period 2012-20

4.1.2. Poland sourced the majority of its arms imports from Finland

4.1.3. Missiles and armored vehicles are the major military hardware imports 70

4.2. Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1. Polish defense exports expected to increase over the forecast period

4.2.2. Poland exports the majority of its defense goods to the US

4.2.3. Aircraft and armored vehicles constitute the majority of Polish defense exports

5. Industry Dynamics

5.1. Five Forces Analysis

5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium

5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high

6. Market Entry Strategy

6.1. Market Regulation

6.1.1. Polish government introduces new Offset Act for defense equipment procurements

6.2. Market Entry Route

6.2.1. Budgeting Process

6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process 80

6.2.3. Joint ventures and acquisitions of domestic companies are the preferred entry routes

6.2.4. Foreign OEMs gain industry access through joint research and development programs

6.3. Key Challenges

6.3.1. Dominance of EU defense companies impede the progress of non-European firms

6.3.2. Lack of transparency in the public procurement process proves a major challenge

7. Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights

7.1. Competitive landscape Overview

7.2. Key Foreign Companies

7.2.1. BAE Systems: overview

7.2.2. BAE Systems: main products and services

7.2.3. BAE Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.4. BAE Systems: alliances 90

7.2.5. BAE Systems: recent contract wins 90

7.2.6. BAE Systems: financial analysis

7.2.7. The Boeing Company: overview

7.2.8. The Boeing Company: main products

7.2.9. The Boeing Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.10. The Boeing Company: alliances

7.2.11. Boeing: financial analysis

7.2.12. Lockheed Martin: overview

7.2.13. Lockheed Martin: main products and services

7.2.14. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.15. Lockheed Martin: alliances

7.2.16. Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins

7.2.17. Lockheed Martin Corp.: financial analysis 100

7.2.18. CAE: overview 10

7.2.19. CAE: main products and services 10

7.2.20. CAE Inc.: alliances

7.2.21. CAE Inc.: recent contract wins

7.2.22. CAE Inc.: financial analysis

7.2.23. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: overview

7.2.24. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: main products and services

7.2.25. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.26. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: alliances

7.2.27. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent contract wins

7.2.28. Leonardo S.p.A.: overview

7.2.29. Leonardo S.p.A.: main products and services

7.2.30. Leonardo S.p.A.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.31. Leonardo S.p.A.: alliances

7.2.32. Leonardo S.p.A.: recent contract wins

7.2.33. Leonardo S.p.A.: financial analysis

7.3. Key Public Companies

7.3.1. Polish Defense Holding: overview

7.3.2. Polish Defense Holding: main products

7.3.3. Polish Defense Holding: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.3.4. Polish Defense Holding: alliances

7.3.5. Polish Defense Holding: recent contract wins

7.3.6. PZL Mielec: overview

7.3.7. PZL Mielec: products

7.3.8. PZL Mielec: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.3.9. PZL Mielec: alliances

7.3.10. PZL Mielec: recent contract wins

7.3.11. Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA: overview 120

7.3.12. Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA: main products and services 120

7.3.13. Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 120

7.3.14. Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA: alliances

7.3.15. Huta Stalowa Wola: overview

7.3.16. Huta Stalowa Wola: main products and services

7.3.17. Huta Stalowa Wola: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.3.18. Huta Stalowa Wola: alliances

7.3.19. Huta Stalowa Wola: recent contract wins

7.3.20. ROSOMAK S.A.: overview

7.3.21. ROSOMAK S.A.: main products and services

7.3.22. ROSOMAK S.A.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.3.23. ROSOMAK S.A.: recent contract wins

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1. Economic Performance

8.1.1. GDP Per Capita

8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices

8.1.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices

8.1.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices

8.1.5. Gross National disposable income (USUSD Billion) 1

8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar

8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies

8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies a percentage of GDP

8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP

8.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP

8.1.11. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP

8.1.12. Service Imports as a percentage of GDP

8.1.13. Service Exports as a percentage of GDP

8.1.14. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current USUSD Billion)

8.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP 140

8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)

9. Appendix 14

9.1. About SDI 14

9.2. Disclaimer 14

List of Figures

Figure 1: Polish Defense Expenditure (PLN Billion), 2014-2023 33

Figure 2: Polish Defense Expenditure (USUSD Billion), 2014-2023 33

Figure 3: Polish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 37

Figure 4:Polish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2014-2023 39

Figure 5: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (PLN Billion), 2014-2023 41

Figure 6: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (USUSD Billion), 2014-2023 42

Figure 7: Polish Defense Expenditure Allocation (% Share), 2014-2023 44

Figure 8: Polish Defense Budget in PLN Billion-Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 46

Figure 9: Polish Defense Budget in USUSD Million-Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 48

Figure 10: Poland Per Capita Expenditure (USUSD), 2014-2023 50

Figure 11: Polish Homeland Security Budget (PLN Billion), 2014-2023 52

Figure 12: Polish Homeland Security Budget (USUSD billion), 2014-2023 52

Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map 54

Figure 14: Terrorism Index, 2018 57

Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 59

Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (USUSD Billion), 2018 and 2023 60

Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 61

Figure 18: Land Based C4ISR Market Size (USUSD Million), 2018-2023 63

Figure 19: Missile Defense System Market Size (USUSD Million), 2018-2023 64

Figure 20: Multirole Aircraft Market Size (USUSD Million), 2018-2023 65

Figure 21: Polish Defense Procurements In Terms Of Their Supplier Relationships 67

Figure 22: Polish Defense Imports (USUSD Million), 2012-2016 68

Figure 23: Polish Defense Imports by Country (%),2012-2016 69

Figure 24: Polish Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 70

Figure 25: Polish Defense Exports by Value (USUSD Million), 2012-2016 71

Figure 26: Polish Defense Exports by Country (%), 2012-2016 72

Figure 27: Polish Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016 73

Figure 28: Industry Dynamics: Porter's Five Forces Analysis 74

Figure 29: BAE Systems-Revenue Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2012-2016 92

Figure 30: BAE Systems-Operating Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2012-2016 93

Figure 31: BAE Systems-Net Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2012-2016 93

Figure 32: Boeing-Revenue Trend Analysis (USUSD billion), 2012-2016 96

Figure 33: Boeing-Operating Profit Trend Analysis (USUSD billion), 2012-2016 97

Figure 34: Boeing-Net Profit Trend Analysis (USUSD billion), 2012-2016 97

Figure 35: Lockheed Martin Corp.-Revenue Trend Analysis (USUSD billion), 2013-2017 100

Figure 36: Lockheed Martin Corp.-Operating Profit Trend Analysis (USUSD billion), 2013-2017 101

Figure 37: Lockheed Martin Corp.-Net Profit Trend Analysis (USUSD billion), 2013-2017 101

Figure 38: CAE Inc.-Revenue Trend Analysis (CAD Billion), 2013-2017 104

Figure 39: CAE Inc.-Operating Profit Trend Analysis (CAD Million), 2013-2017 105

Figure 40: CAE Inc.- Net Profit Trend Analysis (CAD Million), 2013-2017 105

Figure 41: Leonardo S.p.A.-Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2013-2017 111

Figure 42: Leonardo S.p.A.- Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017 112

Figure 43: Leonardo S.p.A.Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017 112

Figure 44: Polish GDP Per Capita, 2015-2025 126

Figure 45: Polish GDP, Current Prices (In USUSD Billions), 2015-2025 127

Figure 46: Polish Exports of goods and services, current prices (LCU Billion), 2005- 2014 128

Figure 47: Polish Imports of goods and services, current prices (LCU Billion), 2005- 2014 129

Figure 48: Polish Gross National Disposable Income (USUSD Billion), 2005- 2012 130

Figure 49: Local Currency Unit per USUSD- Exchange Rate , 2015-2024 131

Figure 50: Polish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USUSD Billion), 2005-2012 132

Figure 51: Polish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 133

Figure 52: Polish Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 134

Figure 53: Poland's Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 135

Figure 54: Poland's Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 136

Figure 55: Poland's Service Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 137

Figure 56: Poland's Service Exports as % of GDP, 2005-2013 138

Figure 57: Poland's Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current USUSD Billion), 2005-2013 139

Figure 58: Poland's Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2005-2013 140

Figure 59: Poland's Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 141

List of Tables

Table 1: Polish Land Forces Strength 22

Table 2: Polish Navy Strength 24

Table 3: Polish Air Force Strength 25

Table 4: Polish Ongoing Procurement Programs 26

Table 5: Polish Future Procurement Programs 28

Table 6: Top Polish Defense Procurement Programs by Value (USUSD Million) 2018-2023 29

Table 7: Polish Defense Expenditure (PLN Billion & USUSD Billion), 2014-2023 32

Table 8: Polish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 36

Table 9: Polish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2014-2023 38

Table 10: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (PLN Billion & USUSD Billion), 2014-2023 41

Table 11: Polish Defense Expenditure Allocation (% Share), 2014-2023 43

Table 12: Polish Defense Budget in PLN Billion-Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 45

Table 13: Polish Defense Budget in USUSD Million-Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 47

Table 14: Polish Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (USUSD), 2014-2023 49

Table 15: Polish Homeland Security Expenditure (PLN Billion & USUSD Billion), 2014-2023 51

Table 16: Terrorism Index, 2018 55

Table 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets: 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 58

Table 18: Top Polish Defense Market Sectors by Value (USUSD Million)-2018-2023 62

Table 19: Polish Budget Formation Timetable: 78

Table 20: Market Entry Strategies by Key Foreign Companies 81

Table 21: Top Defense Suppliers in Polish Defense Industry-By Value (USUSD Million) 2018-2023 84

Table 22: Competitive Landscape of the Polish Defense Industry 85

Table 23: BAE Systems, Main Products 87

Table 24: BAE Systems, Alliances 90

Table 25: BAE Systems-Recent Contract Wins 90

Table 26: The Boeing Company, Main Products 94

Table 27: The Boeing Company, Alliances 95

Table 28: Lockheed Martin, Main Products 98

Table 29: Lockheed Martin, Alliances 99

Table 30: Lockheed Martin, Recent Contract Wins 99

Table 31: CAE, Main Products and Services 102

Table 32: CAE Inc., Alliances 103

Table 33: CAE, recent contract wins 103

Table 34: Sikorsky, a Lockheed martin Company Main Products and Services 106

Table 35: Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company Alliances 107

Table 36:Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent contract wins 107

Table 37: Leonardo S.p.A., Main Products and Services 108

Table 38: Leonardo S.p.A., Alliances 109

Table 39: Leonardo S.p.A., Recent Contract Wins 110

Table 40: Polish Defense Holding, Major Products 113

Table 41: Polish Defense Holding, Alliances 115

Table 42: Polish Defense Holding, Recent Contract Wins 116

Table 43: PZL Mielec-Main Products 118

Table 44: PZL Mielec, Alliances 119

Table 45: PZL Mielec, Recent Contract Wins 119

Table 46: Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA, Main Products and Services 120

Table 47: Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA, Alliances 121

Table 48: Huta Stalowa Wola, Main Products and Services 122

Table 49: Huta Stalowa Wola, Alliances 123

Table 50: Huta Stalowa Wola, Recent Contract Wins 123

Table 51: ROSOMAK S.A.: Main Products and Services 124

Table 52: ROSOMAK SA., Recent Contract Wins 125

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BAE Systems

The Boeing Company

Lockheed Martin Corporation

CAE

Sikorsky

a subsidiary of Lockheed Martin

Leonardo S.p.A.

Polish Defense Holding (PHO)

Polskie Zakady Lotnicze Mielec (PZL Mielec)

Wojskowe Zakady Uzbrojenia SA (WZU)

Huta Stalowa Wola SA (HSW)

ROSOMAK S.A.

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