Future of the Turkey Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Future of the Turkey Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022


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Executive Summary

Future of the Turkey Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Summary

The Future of Turkey Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of Turkey defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following-

Turkey defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of Turkey defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

Porter's Five Force analysis of Turkey defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of Turkey defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

Turkish defense expenditure stands at US$10.6 billion in 2017, and registered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -7.49% during the historic period. The country's strained relationship with Greece, persistent threats from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), active participation in peacekeeping missions, and the reduction in foreign dependency for military equipment procurement drove defense expenditure during the historic period.. As a percentage of GDP, the country's defense expenditure will average 1.3% over the forecast period compared to an average of 1.4% recorded during the historic period.

The capital expenditure allocation, which stood at an average of 26.1% during the historic period, is projected to slightly decrease to an average of 24.1% over the forecast period. This is primarily due to the procurement of advanced defense equipment and a focus on increasing the capabilities of the country's indigenous defense industry. Various procurements that are expected to fuel the growth of capital spending over the forecast period include multi-role aircraft, missile defense systems, corvettes, and main battle tanks (MBTs). Consequently, the remaining budget will be allocated to revenue expenditure, which constitutes personnel salaries, development programs for military personnel, and training.

The MoD is expected to invest in fighters and Multi-role aircraft, Main Battle Tanks (MBT) and frigates.

Reasons to buy

This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of Turkey defense industry market trends for the coming five years

The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

A deep qualitative analysis of Turkey defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts



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Table of Contents

1. Introduction 9

1.1. What is this Report About? 9

1.2. Definitions 9

1.3. Summary Methodology 11

1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 12

2. Executive Summary 13

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 15

3.1. Current Market Conditions 16

3.1.1. Primary threat perception 16

3.1.2. Military doctrine and strategy 18

3.1.3. Military fleet size 20

3.1.4. Procurement Programs 24

3.1.4.1. Ongoing procurement programs 24

3.1.4.2. Future procurement programs 25

3.1.5. Social, political and economic environment and support for defense projects 26

3.1.6. Political and strategic alliances 27

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 28

3.2.1. Turkey defense expenditure expected to grow during the forecast period 28

3.2.2. Turkish defense expenditure to rise over the forecast period 30

3.2.3. Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decline over the forecast period 32

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 34

3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period 34

3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period 36

3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure to rise over the forecast period 38

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 39

3.4.1. Homeland security (HLS) expenditure expected to grow over the forecast period 39

3.4.2. Threats driving homeland security expenditure 41

3.4.3. Turkey faces a high level of terrorist threat 42

3.4.4. Turkey faces high level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 43

3.4.5. Turkey has a terrorism index score of 6.7 45

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 46

3.5.1. Turkish defense expenditure expected to remain low compared to leading spenders 46

3.5.2. The country's defense budget is high compared to its regional countries 48

3.5.3. Turkey defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease 49

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 50

3.6.1. Multi-role aircraft 50

3.6.2. Main battle tanks (MBTs) 51

3.6.3. Naval vessels-frigates 52

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 53

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 54

4.1.1. Defense imports expected to decrease over the forecast period 54

4.1.2. The US was the primary supplier of arms to Turkey 55

4.1.3. Aircraft were the major imported military hardware during 2012-2016 56

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 57

4.2.1. Turkey aims to increase defense exports over the forecast period 57

4.2.2. Turkmenistan emerged as the largest importer of Turkish defense equipment during the period 2012-2016 58

4.2.3. Naval vessels accounted for the majority of defense exports during 2012-2016 59

5. Industry Dynamics 60

5.1. Five Forces Analysis 60

5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low 61

5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high 61

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium 61

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high 61

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high 62

6. Market Entry Strategy 63

6.1. Market Regulation 63

6.1.1. The Turkish government encourages offsets to develop the country's domestic industrial defense base 63

6.2. Market Entry Route 65

6.2.1. Budgeting Process 65

6.2.2. Procurement policy and process 67

6.2.3. Joint venture provides market entry opportunity for foreign OEMs 68

6.2.4. Joint research and development programs provide foreign OEMs with an opportunity for market entry 69

6.3. Key Challenges 70

6.3.1. Corruption poses a challenge to the success of defense deals 70

6.3.2. The completion of military modernization plans, project delays, and cost escalation to limit new projects 70

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 71

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 71

7.2. Key Foreign Companies 73

7.2.1. Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW): Overview 73

7.2.2. Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft: recent announcements and strategic initiatives: 73

7.2.3. Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft: Main Products and Services 74

7.2.4. Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft: alliances 74

7.2.5. Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft: recent contract wins 75

7.3.1. Lockheed Martin: overview 76

7.3.2. Lockheed Martin: Main Products and Services 76

7.3.3. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives: 76

7.3.4. Lockheed Martin: Alliances 77

7.3.5. Lockheed Martin: Recent Contract Wins 78

7.3.6. Lockheed Martin: Financial Analysis 79

7.3.7. BAE Systems: overview 81

7.3.8. BAE Systems: Main products 81

7.3.9. BAE Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 81

7.3.10. BAE Systems: Alliances 82

7.3.11. BAE Systems: Recent Contract Wins 82

7.3.12. BAE Systems: Financial Analysis 83

7.4. Key Public Companies 85

7.4.1. Otokar: overview 85

7.4.2. Otokar: Main products 85

7.4.3. Otokar: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 85

7.4.4. Otokar: alliances 87

7.4.5. Otokar: recent contract wins 87

7.4.6. Otokar: Financial Analysis 88

7.4.7. Roketsan: overview 90

7.4.8. Roketsan: products and services 90

7.4.9. Roketsan: recent announcements and strategic initiatives. 91

7.4.10. Roketsan: alliances 92

7.4.11. Roketsan: recent contract wins 93

7.4.12. Makina ve Kimya Endstrisi Kurumu (MKEK): overview 94

7.4.13. Makina ve Kimya Endstrisi Kurumu (MKEK): products and services 94

7.4.14. Makina ve Kimya Endstrisi Kurumu (MKEK): Alliances 95

7.4.15. Aselsan: overview 96

7.4.16. Aselsan: products and services 96

7.4.17. Aselsan: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 97

7.4.18. Aselsan: Alliances 98

7.4.19. Aselsan: recent contract wins 99

7.4.20. Aselsan: Financial Analysis 101

7.4.21. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI): overview 103

7.4.22. Turkish Aerospace Industries: products and services 103

7.4.23. Turkish Aerospace Industries: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 104

7.4.24. Turkish Aerospace Industries: Alliances 105

7.4.25. Turkish Aerospace Industries: Recent Contract Wins 106

7.4.26. Havelsan: overview 107

7.4.27. Havelsan: products 107

7.4.28. Havelsan: Recent announcements and Strategic Initiatives 108

7.4.29. Havelsan: Alliances 108

7.4.30. Havelsan: Recent contract wins 109

7.5. Key Private Sector Companies 110

7.5.1. Tusas Engine Industries (TEI): overview 110

7.5.2. Tusas Engine Industries: products and services 110

7.5.3. Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI): recent announcements and strategic initiatives 111

7.5.4. Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI): Alliances 111

7.5.5. Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI): Alliances 112

7.5.6. FNSS Defense Systems Co: overview 113

7.5.7. FNSS Defense Systems Co: Main Products and Services 113

7.5.8. FNSS Defense Systems Co: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives 114

7.5.9. FNSS Defense Systems: Alliances 114

7.5.10. FNSS Defense Systems Co: Recent Contract Wins 115

7.5.11. Istanbul Shipyard: Overview 116

7.5.12. Istanbul: products 116

7.5.13. Istanbul Shipyard: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives 117

7.5.14. Istanbul Shipyard: Recent contract wins 117

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 118

8.1. Economic Performance 118

8.1.1. GDP per capita 118

8.1.2. GDP, current prices 119

8.1.3. Export of goods and services (LCU billion) 120

8.1.4. Import of goods and services (LCU billion) 121

8.1.5. Gross national disposable income (US$ billion) 122

8.1.6. Local currency unit per US$ 123

8.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies 124

8.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies as a percentage of GDP 125

8.1.9. Government cash surplus deficit as a percentage of GDP 126

8.1.10. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP 127

8.1.11. Good imports as a percentage of GDP 128

8.1.12. Service imports as a percentage of GDP 129

8.1.13. Service exports as a percentage of GDP 130

8.1.14. Foreign direct investments 131

8.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP 132

8.1.16. Mining, manufacturing, utilities output 133

9. Appendix 134

9.1. About SDI 134

9.2. Disclaimer 134

List of Figures

Figure 1: Turkey-Defense Expenditure (TRY Billion), 2013-2022 29

Figure 2: Turkish Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 29

Figure 3: Turkey-GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022 33

Figure 4:Turkey-Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 35

Figure 5: Turkey-Defense Capital Expenditure (TRY Billion), 2013-2022 37

Figure 6: Turkey-Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 37

Figure 7: Turkish Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 38

Figure 8: Turkey-Homeland Security Budget (TRY Billion), 2013-2022 40

Figure 9: Turkish Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 40

Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017 42

Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2017 45

Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2013-2017 vs 2018-2022 47

Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022 48

Figure 14: Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017 49

Figure 15: Turkey-Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 50

Figure 16: Turkey-MBTs Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 51

Figure 17: Turkey-Frigates Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 52

Figure 18: Turkey-Defense Imports Trend (US$ Million), 2012-2016 54

Figure 19: Turkey-Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016 55

Figure 20: Turkey-Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 56

Figure 21: Turkey-Defense Exports Trend, 2012-2016 57

Figure 22: Turkey-Defense Exports by Country (US$ Million), 2012-2016 58

Figure 23: Turkey-Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016 59

Figure 24: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis 60

Figure 25: Lockheed Martin-Revenue Trend Analysis (%), 2012-2016 79

Figure 26: Lockheed Martin-Operating Profit Trend Analysis (%), 2012-2016 79

Figure 27: Lockheed Martin-Net Profit Trend Analysis (%), 2012-2016 80

Figure 28: BAE Systems-Revenue Trend Analysis (GBP Billion / %), 2012-2016 83

Figure 29: BAE Systems-Operating Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion / %), 2012-2016 84

Figure 30: BAE Systems-Net Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion / %), 2012-2016 84

Figure 31: Otokar-Revenue Trend Analysis, FY2012-2016 88

Figure 32: Otokar-Operating Profit Trend Analysis, FY2012-2016 89

Figure 33: Otokar-Net Profit Trend Analysis, FY2012-2016 89

Figure 34: Aselsan-Revenue Trend Analysis (%), 2012-2016 101

Figure 35: Aselsan-Operating Profit Trend Analysis (%), 2012-2016 102

Figure 36: Aselsan-Net Profit Trend Analysis (%), 2012-2016 102

Figure 37: Turkey-GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025 118

Figure 38: Turkey-GDP Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 119

Figure 39: Turkey-Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 120

Figure 40: Turkey-Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 121

Figure 41: Turkey-Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 122

Figure 42: Turkey-LCU per US$, 2015-2024 123

Figure 43: Turkey-Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 124

Figure 44: Turkey-Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (Percentage of GDP), 2005-2012 125

Figure 45: Turkey-Cash Surplus Deficit as (Percentage of GDP), 2008-2012 126

Figure 46: Turkey-Good Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 127

Figure 47: Turkey-Good Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 128

Figure 48: Turkey-Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 129

Figure 49: Turkey-Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 130

Figure 50: Turkey-Foreign Direct Investments (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2014 131

Figure 51: Turkey-Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 132

Figure 52: Turkey-Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 133

List of Tables

Table 1: Turkey-Army Strength 20

Table 2: Turkey-Navy Strength 22

Table 3: Turkey-Air Force Strength 23

Table 4: Turkey-Ongoing Procurement Programs 24

Table 5: Turkish Future Procurement Programs 25

Table 6: Turkey-Defense Expenditure (TRY Billion and US$ Billion), 2013-2022 28

Table 7: Turkey-GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022 32

Table 8: Turkey-Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 34

Table 9: Turkey-Defense Capital Expenditure (TRY Billion and US$ Billion), 2013-2022 36

Table 10: Turkey-Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 38

Table 11: Turkey-Homeland Security Expenditure (TRY Billion and US$ Billion), 2013-2022 39

Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2017 43

Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2013-2017 vs 2018-2022 46

Table 14: Turkey-Offset Regulations (%), 2017 63

Table 15: Turkey-Technological Cooperation, Investment, and R&D Multiplier Provision 64

Table 16: Multipliers for Export Related Systems 64

Table 17: Turkey-Budget Formation Timetable, 2017 65

Table 18: Turkey-Market Entry by Key Foreign Companies 68

Table 19: Turkey-Market Entry by Key Foreign Companies 69

Table 20: Turkey-Competitive Landscape of Defense Industry, 1976-2017 71

Table 21: Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW)-Main Products 74

Table 22: Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft-Alliances 74

Table 23: Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW)-Recent Contract Wins 75

Table 24: Lockheed Martin-Main Products 76

Table 25: Lockheed Martin-Alliances 77

Table 26: Lockheed Martin-Recent Contract Wins 78

Table 27: BAE Systems-Main Products 81

Table 28: BAE Systems-Alliances 82

Table 29: BAE Systems-Recent Contract Wins 82

Table 30: Otokar-Main Products 85

Table 31: Otokar-Alliances 87

Table 32: Otokar-Recent Contract Wins 87

Table 33: Roketsan-Main Products and Services 90

Table 34: Roketsan-Alliances 92

Table 35: Roketsan-Recent Contract Wins 93

Table 36: Makina ve Kimya Endstrisi Kurumu (MKEK)-Main Products 94

Table 37: Makina ve Kimya Endstrisi Kurumu (MKEK)-Alliances 95

Table 38: Aselsan-Main Products and Services 96

Table 39: Aselsan-Alliances 98

Table 40: Aselsan-Recent Contract Wins 99

Table 41: Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI)-Main Products and Services 103

Table 42: Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI)-Alliances 105

Table 43: Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI)-Recent Contract Wins 106

Table 44: Havelsan-Main Products 107

Table 45: Havelsan-Alliances 108

Table 46: Havelsan-Recent Contract Wins 109

Table 47: Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI)-Main Products 110

Table 48: Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI)-Alliances 111

Table 49: Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI)-Recent Contract Wins 112

Table 50: FNSS Defense Systems Co-Main Products & Services 113

Table 51:Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI)-Alliances 114

Table 52: FNSS Defense Systems Co-Recent Contract Wins 115

Table 53: Istanbul Shipyard-Main Products 116

Table 54 Istanbul Shipyard-Recent Contract Wins 117

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Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Otokar, Roketsan, Makina ve Kimya Endstrisi Kurumu, Aselsan, Turkish Aerospace Industries, Havelsan, Tusas Engine Industries (TEI), FNSS Defense Systems Company and Istanbul Shipyard

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