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Future of the Uzbek Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

Future of the Uzbek Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021


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Executive Summary

As one of the emerging powers, as well as one of the largest and strongest performing economies in Central Asia, Uzbekistan displays a strong potential for growth compared to its neighbouring nations. While the country invested USD 9.7 billion cumulatively over the period 2012-2016, the defense budget is expected to increase to USD 11.8 billion cumulatively in the forecast period. This growth is stimulated by the government's initiatives to procure new defense systems and combat the rising threat of domestic terrorism.

Key Findings

During 2012-2016, Uzbek defense expenditure registered a growth rate of 3.57%, increasing from USD 1.8 billion in 2012 to USD 2.1 billion in 2016

Military expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 4.25% during 2017-2021, to value USD 2.6 billion in 2021

Demand for equipment is mainly expected to revolve around helicopter, aircraft, armored vehicle, and surveillance equipment during 2017-2021

Synopsis

Strategic Defence Intelligence's report-Future of the Uzbek Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021 offers detailed analysis of the industry with market size forecasts from 2017-2021. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand in the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants. In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2017-2021, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

Porter's Five Force analysis of the defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities from 2016 to 2026

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: Including an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy

Identify and track the global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams

Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders, technical specifications, and the country's expected investment pattern during 2017-2021

Make correct business decisions based on detailed analysis of the defense industry from 2017-2021,which includes the total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis

Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities

Channel resources by identifying various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2017-2021

1. Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?

1.2. Definitions

1.3. Summary Methodology

1.4. SDI Terrorism Index

1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

3.1.1. Uzbek annual defense expenditure to reach USD 2.6 billion by 2021

3.1.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and counter-terrorism to drive Uzbekistan's defense expenditure

3.1.3. The country's defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 2.84% on average over the forecast period

3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 20

3.2.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period

3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to increase during the forecast period

3.2.3. Uzbek revenue expenditure expected to record a CAGR of 3.92% over the forecast period

3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period

3.3. Key Trends and Drivers in the Homeland Security Market 32

3.3.1. Human trafficking and drug smuggling form the major components of homeland security expenditure

3.3.2. Uzbekistan is at low risk from external and internal threats

3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets

3.4.1. Uzbek defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.25% over the forecast period

3.4.2. Uzbekistan's military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure

3.4.3. Uzbekistan allocates a high percentage of GDP to defense

3.4.4. Uzbekistan faces low risk of terrorist attack

3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

5. Industry Dynamics

5.1. Five Forces Analysis

5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: medium to high

5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: low to medium

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium

6. Market Entry Strategy

6.1. Market Regulation

6.1.1. Uzbekistan does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country

6.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in defense sector not disclosed by the government

6.2. Market Entry Route

6.2.1. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs

6.2.2. Joint venture and license manufacturing agreements provide an attractive market entry route

6.3. Key Challenges

6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency create a roadblock for foreign companies

6.3.2. Domination of Russian companies poses a challenge to other foreign firms

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 47

7.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Uzbekistan

7.2. Key Companies

7.2.1. Airbus Helicopters: overview

7.2.2. Airbus Helicopters: products and services

7.2.3. Airbus Helicopters: recent contract wins

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1. Economic Performance

8.1.1. GDP Per Capita

8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices

8.1.3. Exports of goods and services

8.1.4. Imports of goods and services

8.1.5. Local Currency Unit per USD

8.2. Minerals 54

8.2.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output

9. Appendix

9.1. About SDI

9.2. Disclaimer

Figure 1: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (USD billions), 2012-2016

Figure 2: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (USD billions), 2017-2021

Figure 3: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2012-2016

Figure 4: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2017-2021

Figure 5: Uzbek GDP Growth vs

Figure 6: Uzbek GDP Growth vs

Figure 7: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016

Figure 8: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021

Figure 9: Uzbek Defense Capital Expenditure (USD billion),2012-2016

Figure 10: Uzbek Defense Capital Budget Allocation (USD billion), 2017-2021

Figure 11: Uzbek Defense Capital Expenditure (UZS billion), 2012-2016

Figure 12: Uzbek Defense Capital Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2017-2021

Figure 13: Uzbek Defense Revenue Expenditure (USD billion), 2012-2016

Figure 14: Uzbek Defense Revenue Budget Allocation(USD billion), 2017-2021

Figure 15: Uzbek Defense Revenue Expenditure (UZS billion), 2012-2016

Figure 16: Uzbek Defense Revenue Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2017-2021

Figure 17: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2012-2016

Figure 18: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2017-2021

Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016

Figure 20: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2012-2016 vs

Figure 21: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (USD Billion), 2016 and 2021

Figure 22: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2016

Figure 23: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016

Figure 24: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis

Figure 25: Uzbek GDP Per Capita (USD ), 2015-2024

Figure 26: Uzbek GDP, Current Prices (USD Billion), 2015-2024

Figure 27: Uzbek Exports of Goods and Services (LCU), 2002-2011

Figure 28: Uzbek Imports of goods and services (LCU), 2005-2014

Figure 29: Local Currency per USD , 2015-2024

Figure 30: Uzbek Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Billion), 2005-2014

Table 1: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (USD billions), 2012-2016

Table 2: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (USD billions), 2017-2021

Table 3: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2012-2016

Table 4: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2017-2021

Table 5: Uzbek GDP Growth vs

Table 6: Uzbek GDP Growth vs

Table 7: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016

Table 8: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021

Table 9: Uzbek Defense Capital Expenditure (USD Billion), 2012-2016

Table 10: Uzbek Defense Capital Budget Allocation (USD billion), 2017-2021

Table 11: Uzbek Defense Capital Expenditure (UZS Billion), 2012-2016

Table 12: Uzbek Defense Capital Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2017-2021

Table 13: Uzbek Defense Revenue Expenditure (USD billion), 2012-2016

Table 14: Uzbek Defense Revenue Budget Allocation (USD billion), 2017-2021

Table 15: Uzbek Defense Revenue Expenditure (UZS Billion), 2012-2016

Table 16: Uzbek Defense Revenue Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2017-2021

Table 17: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2012-2016

Table 18: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2017-2021

Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2012-2016 vs

Table 20: SDI Terrorism Index

Table 21: Airbus Helicopters-Product Focus

Table 22: Airbus Helicopters -Recent Contract Wins

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Defense, budget, offset, regulation, capital expenditure, homeland, drivers, market opportunities, procurement, entry route, key challenge, announcements, alliances, contract awards, financial analysis, business environment


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