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Future of the Russian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

Future of the Russian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021


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Executive Summary

The Russian defense market will be driven by anarms race in the region with focus on modernizing its military by procuring advanced defense systems, and enhancing its border security measures. In addition, the capital expenditure allocation is anticipated to average 57.8% of the total defense budget during 2017-2021 and defense equipment procurements are expected to be in the areas of C4ISR systems- space-based, land-based and airborne, transport aircraft, multi-role aircraft, and submarines.

Key Findings

During 2012-2016, Russian defense expenditure registered a growth rate of -3.46%, declining from USD59.9 billion in 2012 to USD52 billion in 2016

Military expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 7.28% during 2017-2021, to value USD78.4 billion in 2021

The Russian Governments aversion to western defense technology imposes challenges for the Russian defense market

Demand for equipment is mainly expected to revolve around C4ISR systems- space-based, land-based and airborne, transport aircraft, multi-role aircraft, and submarines during 2017-2021

Synopsis

Strategic Defence Intelligences report - Future of the Russian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021 offers detailed analysis of the industry with market size forecasts from 2017-2021. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand in the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants. In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2017-2021, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns

Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

Porters Five Force analysis of the defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years

Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities from 2016 to 2026

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: Including an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

ReasonsToBuy

Identify and track the global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams

Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders, technical specifications, and the countrys expected investment pattern during 2017-2021

Make correct business decisions based on detailed analysis of the defense industry from 2017-2021,which includes the total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis

Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities

Channel resources by identifying various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2017-2021

1 Introduction

1.1 What is this Report About?

1.2 Definitions

3.4.2 Russia is worlds third largest defense spender

3.4.3 Russia allocated 4.4% of its GDP to defense in 2016

3.4.4 Russia is highly affected from acts of terrorism

3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators

3.5.1 Space-basedC4ISR

3.5.2 Land-basedC4ISR

3.5.3 Transport Aircraft

3.5.4 Airborne-C4ISR

3.5.5 Multi-role Aircraft

3.5.6 Submarines

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1 Import Market Dynamics

4.1.1 The countrys defense imports are low owing to a developed indigenous sector

4.1.2 Ukraine was the key defense supplier to Russia

4.1.3 Aircraft and engines were the key defense imports during 2011-2015

4.2 Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1 Russias exports witnessed a decline during 2011-2015

4.2.2 India, China, and Vietnam are Russias main defense equipment purchasers

4.2.3 Aircraft and ships account for the majority of Russias defense exports

5 Industry Dynamics

5.1 Five Forces Analysis

5.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: medium to high

5.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: high

5.1.3 Barrier to entry: high

5.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: high

5.1.5 Threat of substitution: high

6 Market Entry Strategy

6.1 Market Regulation

6.1.1 Entry into defense sector is highly regulated

6.1.2 Market Entry Route

6.2 Key Challenges

6.2.1 Russian Governments aversion to Western defense technology

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview

7.1.1 Domestic industry in the process of consolidation for better focus and fund allocation

7.1.2 Defense sector is dominated by domestic firms, with no foreign presence

7.2 Key Domestic Companies

7.2.1 Sukhoi: overview

7.2.2 Sukhoi: products

7.2.3 Sukhoi: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.4 Sukhoi: alliances

7.2.5 Sukhoi: recent contract awards

7.2.6 Splav - overview

7.2.7 Splav - major products and services

7.2.8 Tactical Missiles Corporation: overview

7.2.9 Tactical Missiles Corporation - major products and services

7.2.10 Tactical Missiles Corporation - recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.11 Tactical Missiles Corporation - recent contract wins

7.2.12 Almaz-Antey - overview

7.2.13 Almaz-Antey - Major Products and Services

7.2.14 Almaz-Antey - recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.15 Almaz-Antey - alliances

7.2.16 Almaz-Antey - recent contract wins

7.2.17 United Aircraft Corporation - overview

7.2.18 United Aircraft Corporation - major products and services

7.2.19 United Aircraft Corporation - recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.20 United Aircraft Corporation - alliances

7.2.21 KBP Instrument Design Bureau - overview

7.2.22 KBP Instrument Design Bureau - major products and services

7.2.23 KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.24 KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent contract wins

7.2.25 V.A.Degtyarev Plant - overview

7.2.26 V.A.Degtyarev Plant - major products and services

7.2.27 Kurganmashzavod - overview

7.2.28 Kurganmashzavod - major products and services

7.2.29 Kurganmashzavod - recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.30 Kurganmashzavod - alliances

7.2.31 Kurganmashzavod - recent contract wins

7.2.32 Uralvagonzavod - overview

7.2.33 Uralvagonzavod - major products and services

7.2.34 Uralvagonzavod - recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.35 Uralvagonzavod - alliances

7.2.36 Uralvagonzavod - recent contract wins

7.2.37 Izhevsk Mechanical Works - overview

7.2.38 Izhevsk Mechanical Works - major products and services

7.2.39 Izhevsk Mechanical Works - recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.40 Irkut Corporation - overview

7.2.41 Irkut Corporation - major products and services

7.2.42 Irkut Corporation - recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.43 Irkut Corporation - alliances

7.2.44 Irkut Corporation - recent contract wins

7.2.45 Irkut Corporation - financial analysis

7.2.46 Oboronprom Corporation - overview

7.2.47 Oboronprom Corporation - major products and services

7.2.48 Oboronprom Corporation - recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.49 Oboronprom Corporation - alliances

7.2.50 Oboronprom Corporation - recent contract wins

8 Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1 Demographic and Social Stats

8.1.1 Total Rural Population (In Mn)

8.1.2 Total Urban Population (In Mn)

8.1.3 Number of Households (In Mn)

8.2 Economic Performance

8.2.1 GDP Per Capita, USD

8.2.2 GDP (current USD Bn)

8.2.3 Exports of goods and services (current USD Bn)

8.2.4 Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn)

8.2.5 Gross National disposable income (USD Bn)

8.2.6 Manufacturing Output (USD Bn)

8.2.7 Consumer price Index

8.2.8 Wholesale Price Index

8.2.9 LCU per USD (period average)

8.2.10 LCU per EUR (period average)

8.2.11 Lending Rate (%)

8.2.12 Deposit Rate (%)

8.2.13 Real Interest Rate (%)

8.2.14 Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USD Billion)

8.2.15 Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)

8.2.16 Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Bn)

8.2.17 Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU)

8.2.18 Goods exports as a percentage of GDP

8.2.19 Goods balance as a percentage of GDP

8.2.20 Services imports as a percentage of GDP

8.2.21 Services Exports as a percentage of GDP

8.2.22 Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current USD Billion)

8.2.23 Net Foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP

8.2.24 International reserves, including gold (USD Billion)

8.3 Energy and Utilities

8.3.1 Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)

8.3.2 Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)

8.3.3 Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours)

8.3.4 Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts)

8.3.5 Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours)

8.3.6 Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours)

8.3.7 Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)

8.3.8 Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day)

8.3.9 Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)

8.3.10 Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts)

8.4 Infrastructure Quality and Availability

8.4.1 Rail lines (total route - km)

8.4.2 Air transport, freight (million ton-km)

8.4.3 Overall construction (USD Million)

8.5 Minerals

8.5.1 Mining, Manufacturing, and Utilities Output (USD Bn)

8.6 Technology

8.6.1 Research and development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands)

8.6.2 Patents granted

8.7 Telecommunication

8.7.1 Telephone lines (In Mn)

8.7.2 Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people)

9 Appendix

9.1 About SDI

9.2 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Russian Defense Expenditure (USD Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 2: Russian Defense Expenditure (USD Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 3: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 4: Russian Defense Expenditure(RUB Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 5: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016

Figure 6: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021

Figure 7:Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016

Figure 8: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021

Figure 9: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (USD Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 10: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (USD Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 11: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (RUB Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 12: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (RUB Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 13: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2012-2016

Figure 14: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2017-2021

Figure 15: Russian Homeland Security Budget (USD Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 16: Russian Homeland Security Budget (USD Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 17: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2012-2016

Figure 18: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2017-2021

Figure 19: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2016

Figure 20: SDI Terrorism Index

Figure 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021

Figure 22: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (USD Billion),2016 and 2021

Figure 23: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2016

Figure 24: C4ISRSpace-Based Market Size (USD Billion), 2016-2026

Figure 25: C4ISRLand-Based Market Size (USD Billion), 2016-2026

Figure 26: Transport Aircraft Market Size (USD Billion), 2016-2026

Figure 27: C4ISR-Airborne Market Size (USD Billion), 2016-2026

Figure 28: Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (USD Billion), 2016-2026

Figure 29: SSBN-Ballistic Missile Submarine Market Size (USD Billion), 2016-2026

Figure 30: Russian Defense Import Trend, 2011-2015 (TIV values)

Figure 31: Russian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2011-2015

Figure 32: Russian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2011-2015

Figure 33: Russian Defense Export Trend, 2011-2015(TIV values)

Figure 34: Russian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2011-2015

Figure 35: Russian Defense Exports by Category (%),2011-2015

Figure 36: Industry Dynamics Porters Five Forces Analysis

Figure 37: Irkut Corporation - Revenue Trend Analysis (RUB Billion), 2010-2014

Figure 38: Irkut Corporation - Operating Profit (USD Billion), 2010-2014

Figure 39: Irkut Corporation - Net Profit Trend Analysis (USD Billion), 2010-2014

Figure 40: Total Rural Population (In Mn), 2016-2025

Figure 41: Total Urban Population (In Mn), 2016-2025

Figure 42: Number of Households (In Mn), 2008-2017

Figure 43: GDP Per Capita in USD, 2016-2025

Figure 44: GDP (current USD Bn), 2016-2025

Figure 45: Exports of goods and services (current USD Bn), 2004-2013

Figure 46: Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn), 2004-2013

Figure 47: Gross National disposable income (USD Bn), 2003-2012

Figure 48: Manufacturing Output (USD Bn), 2003-2012

Figure 49: Consumer price Index, 2016-2025

Figure 50: Wholesale Price Index, 2003-2012

Figure 51: LCU per USD (period average), 2016-2025

Figure 52: LCU per EUR (period average), 2016-2025

Figure 53: Lending Rate (%), 2003-2012

Figure 54: Deposit Rate (%), 2003-2012

Figure 55: Real Interest Rate (%), 2003-2012

Figure 56: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies, 2003-2012

Figure 57: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2003-2012

Figure 58: Total Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Bn), 2003-2012

Figure 59: Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2003-2012

Figure 60: Goods exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 61: Goods balance as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 62: Service imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 63: Services exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 64: Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current USD Billion), 2005-2012

Figure 65: Net Foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP, 2006-2012

Figure 66: International reserves, including gold (USD Billion), 2003-2012

Figure 67: Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002-2011

Figure 68: Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012

Figure 69: Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012

Figure 70: Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010

Figure 71: Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012

Figure 72: Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012

Figure 73: The Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2005-2014

Figure 74: Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003-2012

Figure 75: The Proved Reserves of Crude Oil (Billion Barrels), 2005-2014

Figure 76: Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts),2003-2012

Figure 77: Rail lines (total route - km), 2003-2012

Figure 78: Air transport, freight (million ton-km), 2003-2012

Figure 79: Overall construction (USD Million), 2007-2014

Figure 80: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Bn), 2003-2012

Figure 81: Research and development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands), 2001-2010

Figure 82: Patents granted, 2004-2013

Figure 83: Telephone Lines (In Mn), 2003-2012

Figure 84: Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people) 2003-2012

Table 1: Russian Defense Expenditure (USD Billion), 2012-2016

Table 2: Russian Defense Expenditure (USD Billion), 2017-2021

Table 3: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2012-2016

Table 4: Russian Defense Expenditure (RUB Billion), 2017-2021

Table 5: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016

Table 6: Russian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021

Table 7: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016

Table 8: Russian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021

Table 9: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (USD Billion), 2012-2016

Table 10: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (USD Billion), 2017-2021

Table 11: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (RUB billion), 2012-2016

Table 12: Russian Capital Budget Allocation (RUB Billion), 2017-2021

Table 13: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2012-2016

Table 14: Russian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2017-2021

Table 15: Russian Homeland Security Budget (USD Billion), 2012-2016

Table 16: Russian Homeland Security Budget (USD Billion), 2017-2021

Table 17: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2012-2016

Table 18: Russian Homeland Security Budget (RUB Billion), 2017-2021

Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016vs. 2017-2021

Table 20: SDI Terrorism Index

Table 21: Sukhoi - Major Products & Services

Table 22: Sukhoi - Alliances

Table 23: Sukhoi - Recent Contract Wins

Table 24: Splav - Major Products & Services

Table 25: Tactical Missiles Corporation - Major Products & Services

Table 26: Tactical Missiles Corporation - Recent Contract Wins

Table 27: Almaz-Antey - Major Products & Services

Table 28: Almaz-Antey - Alliances

Table 29: Almaz-Antey - Recent Contract Wins

Table 30: United Aircraft Corporation - Major Products & Services

Table 31: United Aircraft Corporation - Alliances

Table 32: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - Major Products & Services

Table 33: KBP Instrument Design Bureau - recent contract wins

Table 34: V.A.Degtyarev Plant - Major Products & Services

Table 35: Kurganmashzavod - Major Products and Services

Table 36: Kurganmashzavod - Alliances

Table 37: Kurganmashzavod - Recent Contract Wins

Table 38: Uralvagonzavod - Major Products & Services

Table 39: Uralvagonzavod - Alliances

Table 40: Uralvagonzavod - Recent Contract Wins

Table 41: Izhevsk Mechanical Works - Major Products & Services

Table 42: Irkut Corporation - Major Products & Services

Table 43: Irkut Corporation - Alliances

Table 44: Irkut Corporation - Recent Contract Wins

Table 45: Oboronprom Corporation - Major Products & Services

Table 46: Oboronprom Corporation - Alliances

Table 47: Oboronprom Corporation - Recent Contract Wins

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Sukhoi

Splav

Tactical Missiles Corporation

Almaz-Antey

United Aircraft Corporation

KBP Instrument Design Bureau

V.A.Degtyarev Plant

Kurganmashzavod

Uralvagonzavod

Izhevsk Mechanical Works

Irkut Corporation

Oboronprom Corporation

Defense, Budget, Offset, Regulation, Capital Expenditure, Homeland, Drivers, Market Opportunities, Procurement, Entry Route, Key Challenge, Announcements, Alliances, Contract Awards, Financial Analysis, Business Environment


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