Vietnam Dairy Comprehensive Report Q2/2016

Vietnam Dairy Comprehensive Report Q2/2016


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Executive Summary

Dairy are important food providing necessary nutrients for every human being. Dairy is a universal and livestock industry related production: Livestock and milk collection take place in almost every country across the world, and up to one million people participate in milk production. It is an important part of the global food system and it plays a key role in the sustainability of rural areas in particular. In fact, the dairy industry actively contributes to the economies of a number of communities, regions and countries. An increasing demand worldwide is noticeably emerging at the present, and the industry is globalizing, thus increasing the scope and intensity of the global dairy trade. However, the world's dairy industry is mainly produced in developed countries, such as America, New Zealand and is mostly exported to developing countries. In addition, the dairy industry is in shortage of supply. The motivation comes from China and Europe with annual input growth rates up to 20%.

Vietnam does not initially possess the cow raising tradition, this only emerged in Vietnam since the early of the 20th century. Up to 2015, Vietnam has more than 275 thousand units of cow and a total of 19 thousand producers. Cow raising requires capital and high technical skills, but in Vietnam, cows are mainly raised by small scale producers (less than 20 units/ producer) coupled with the lack of knowledge on raising and preventing cows from diseases, resulting in low productivity, high production cost, and unstable milk quality. According to Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant (VIRAC), West Europe has production cost from 45-55 USD. While America has the production cost at about 35-60 USD, depending on each area development. Countries like Argentina have suitable weather and big farming land, helping reducing the average cost. Cost of production in Australasia is 36.6 USD, while it is 30 -35 USD in Australia and 41-42 USD in New Zealand. The discrepancy comes from food price, land price and the revaluation of NZD recently. New Zealand used to have the most competitive price in around the year 2000 (12USD/ 100kg) but the revaluation of the currency and rising inputs price trebled the price. In general, the cost of production did not fluctuate strongly throughout the period. Vietnam has the average cost of production because diluted raising and scale, does not achieve the economics of scale, low productivity (12-15 liters/day) and high cost of cattle-feed and veterinary. This leads to the lack of milk as input materials for milk manufacturing industry for years hence has to rely on imports.

The in-depth research �Vietnam Dairy Industry� carried out by Vietnam Industry Research and Consultant (VIRAC) illustrates the overall scenario of the dairy industry in Vietnam in order to provide an insight for a better understanding regarding the market. The report details the economic situation in general and the industry in particular with updated date and statistic until 2016, the movement of the price as well as the forecast for the upcoming future, covering all domains, including liquid milk, powdered milk, condensed milk as well as yogurt, butter and cheese. Analysis of big players in the industry is also elaborated by providing detailed financial analysis, applied technology, market share, etc. herein to help companies position and define the competiveness in the market. For example, some typical producers are VinaMilk, TH True Milk, Nutrifood, Hanoi milk, IDP, 3A nutrition.



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Abbreviation

I. Business environment

1. Macroeconomic situations

Figure 1. GDP and average milk consumption per capita

Figure 2. Food and dairy goods spending, 2012-2015E

Figure 3. Urbanization ratio, 2004-2014 (%)

Figure 4. Consumption growth in cities and rural areas

Figure 5. Vietnam's population structure, 2014

Figure 6. Population and growth rate, 2004-2015

Figure 7. VND/USD exchange rates and input material prices of milk imported, 2010-T1/2016

Figure 8. Vietnam inflation rate, 2006-2015 (%)

Figure 9. Customer confidence index, 2014-2015

Figure 10. Retail sale, 2009-2015

2. Legal Framework

3. Trade Agreements

Table 1. Vietnam's tariff on milk and dairy goods

II. Global market

1. Chain value of the dairy industry

Figure 11. Dairy chain value and added value by segments

Figure 12. Milk and Dairy goods classification

2. Input materials

Figure 13. Number of cows in the world 2008-2015F

Figure 14. Cow allocation by regions

Figure 15. World's milk production, 2010-2014

Figure 16. Milk production structure, 2014 (%)

Figure 17. World's milk production cost 2014 (USD/100kg)

Figure 18. Milk price/ feed price ratio in America, 2010-2015

Figure 19. Farm's fresh milk price in some countries, 2014-2015

Figure 20. Average milk consumption per capita, 2008-2023

Table 2. Capability to satisfy regional demands

3. Dairy goods

Figure 21. Quantity production and consumption of liquid milk

Figure 22. Change in milk consumption per capita by countries, 2014

Figure 23. Trade of dairy, 2008-2023F

Figure 24. Milk Import/Export structure, 2015

Figure 25. World's yogurt production value

Table 3. Quantity production of yogurt by the region

Figure 26. Milk consumption structure

Figure 27. Skimmed milk production structure, 2008-2015

Figure 28. Skimmed milk production and consumption structure, 2015 (%)

Figure 29. World's skimmed food transaction, 2008-2015

Figure 30. Import -Export structure, 2015 (%)

Figure 31. Whole milk production and consumption, 2008-2023F

Figure 32. Whole milk production-consumption structure, 2015 (%)

Figure 33. Global trade of whole powdered milk

Figure 34. Whole milk import -export structure, 2015 (%)

Figure 35. Cheese production and consumption , 2008-2023F

Figure 36. Cheese consumption structure, 2015

Figure 37. Cheese import -export structure, 2015(%)

Figure 38. World's cheese transaction, 2008-2015

Figure 39. Butter consumption and production

Figure 40. Butter consumption structure 2015

Table 4. World's top 5 most importing countries, 2015

Figure 41. World's butter transaction, 2008-2023F

Figure 42. Butter export structure, 2015 (%)

Figure 43. Average dairy consumption, 2015

Figure 44. Movement of milk and dairy goods, 2010-T1/2016

4. Typical producing countries

Figure 45. Movement of milk and dairy goods, 2010-T1/2016

Figure 46. Powdered milk production and consumption, 2010-2015E

Figure 47. Milk material production in China

Figure 48. New Zealand's average milk and dairy good consumption per capita

Figure 49. New Zealand's input materials, 11/12-14/15

Figure 50. Input material production structure, 2015

Figure 51. Europe's input materials situation 2010-2015

Figure 52. America's input material situation, 2010-2015

Figure 53. America's average milk consumption per capita, 2009-2014

5. Key players

Figure 54. Top 10 companies' profit and production, 2015

Table 5. general information of some key players

III. Vietnam's market

1. History of establishment and development

2. Producing procedures

Figure 55. Dairy production process in Vietnam

3. Production technology

4. Input materials

Figure 56. Number of cows in Vietnam

Figure 57. Number of cows by region

Figure 58. Production by region

Figure 59. Cow's growth of companies in the industry

Figure 60. Domestic production

Figure 61. Input material production

Figure 62. Movement of world's input prices

Figure 63. Fresh material milk in Viet Nam

5. Production

Figure 64. Number of enterprises and labor in milk industry

Figure 65. Production quantity of liquid milk

Figure 66. Production quantity of powdered milk

Figure 67. Production quantity of other milk

Figure 68. Production quantity of powdered milk and liquid milk in 2015 by month

6. Consumption

Figure 69. Sale of milk consumption in Viet Nam

Figure 70. Quantity consumption of milk

Figure 71. Revenue of milk companies

Figure 72. Milk Consumption per capita

Table 6. Several powdered milk brands in Vietnam

Figure 73. Sale of powdered milk in Viet Nam

Figure 74. Market share of powdered milk in 2014

Figure 75. Sale of liquid milk

Figure 76. Liquid milk market share in 2014

Figure 77. Sale of Yogurt, 2010-2015

Figure 78. Yogurt market share, 2014

Figure 79. Condensed milk market shares, 2014

Figure 80. Sale consumption of condensed milk

7. Competition analysis

8. Import-export

Figure 81. Imports value of dairy

Figure 82. Structure of import market in 2015

Figure 83. Export value and export revenue of Vinamilk

9. Price movement

Figure 84. Price movements of 400g milk powder

Figure 85. Powdered milk wholesale price 2015

Figure 86. Condensed milk wholesale price in the market 2015

Figure 87. Milk powder wholesale price 2015

Figure 88. Yogurt wholesale price 2015

Table 7.

10. Distribution system

Figure 89. Dairy Distribution System

Figure 90. Top 10 most popular beverages in Vietnam's rural areas 2014

Figure 91. Top 10 most popular beverages in Vietnam's urban areas 2014

11. Inventories

Figure 92. Dairy inventories

IV. Industrial risks

V. Industrial development plan

1. Population growth

Table 8. Forecast of several basic population indicators 2019

Figure 93. Population and population growth forecasts Vietnam 2017

2. Livestock sector development plan

Table 9. Domestic dairy herd growth target 2010-2020

Figure 94. Domestic dairy herd growth target 2010-2020

3. Dairy industry development

Table 10. Dairy product development plan until 2020, vision 2025

VI. Prospects and forecasts

1. Development incentives

Figure 95. The percentage of families having children in several countries 2014

2. Forecasts

Figure 96. Milk consumption forecast in Vietnam 2020

VII. Business analysis

1. Overview

Table 11. Enterprise introduction

2. Financial analysis

Figure 97. Net Revenue and Gross Profit of Dairy Sector 2014

Figure 98. Selling expenses and Selling expenses ratio 2014

Figure 99. Advertising and Selling costs of Vinamilk 2015

Figure 100. Selling Expenses Structure of Vinamilk 2015

Figure 101. Enterprise Management Cost and Enterprise Management Cost Rate/Net Revenue 2014

Figure 102. Capital Structure 2014

Figure 103. Forecast of TH Milk loans until 2020

Figure 104. Assets structure 2014

Table 12. The evaluation indicators of solvency 2014

Table 13. Indicators to assess efficiency of assets 2014

Table 14. The evaluation indicators of business performance

VIII. Appendix of Financial Statements

TH True Milk Joint Stock Company

Table 15. Balance sheet

Table 16. Income statement

Table 17. Cash flow statement

Nutifood Nutrition Food Join Stock Company

Table 18. Balance sheet

Table 19. Income statement

Table 20. Cash flow statement

International Dairy Joint Stock Company

Table 21. Balance sheet

Table 22. Income statement

Table 23. Cash flow statement

3A Nutrition (Vietnam) Company Limited

Table 24. Balance sheet

Table 25. Income statement

Table 26. Cash flow statement

Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company

Table 27. Balance sheet

Table 28. Income statement

Table 29. Cash flow statement

Hanoi Milk Joint Stock Company

Table 30. Balance sheet

Table 31. Income statement

Table 32. Cash flow statement

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Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (VNM)

TH True Milk Joint Stock Company

Dong Tam Nutrition Food Joint Stock Company

Hanoi Milk Joint Stock Company (Hanoimilk)

International Dairy Joint Stock Company (IDP)

3A Nutrition (Vietnam) Company Limited

Vietnam Dairy Industry

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