EpiCast Report: Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

EpiCast Report: Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025


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Executive Summary

EpiCast Report: Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Summary

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common, often clinically silent liver disease characterized by the presence of steatosis (fatty liver), in addition to liver inflammation and damage. Unlike alcoholic liver disease, NASH occurs in those who drink little or no alcohol. NASH usually presents with few or no symptoms, and most people affected with the disease feel healthy and are unaware they have a problem.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of NASH in the 7MM will grow by 0.65% per year over the next 10 years, from 60,325,647 cases in 2015, to 64,273,379 cases in 2025. In the 7MM, the US will have the highest number of total prevalent cases throughout the forecast period, accounting for 56.85% of all total prevalent cases in the 7MM in 2015. When analyzing the individual markets, more than 85.00% of the total prevalent cases of NASH occurred in ages 20 years and older and more cases occured in men compared with women. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the 7MM will see an increase in the diagnosed prevalent cases of NASH from 16,952,459 cases in 2015 to 31,000,983 cases in 2025, at the rate of 8.29%. Diagnosed prevalent cases are forecast to increase faster than total prevalent cases due to expected increase in diagnosis rate, as indicated by primary research.

GlobalData epidemiologists utilized primary research and comprehensive, country-specific data from peer-reviewed journal articles when available, to arrive at a meaningful, in-depth analysis and forecast for the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of NASH. Since obesity is a major risk factor for NASH, the prevalence trend in obesity was used to determine the prevalence trend in NASH across all age- and sex-specific segmentations, thereby providing granularity to the forecast analysis. The forecast is further strengthened by the use of a biopsy-proven total prevalence study to estimate the total prevalence of NASH in the 7MM, excluding Japan, as liver biopsies are regarded as the gold-standard diagnostic method for NASH. In Japan, clinically relevant noninvasive diagnostic indices were combined to estimate the total prevalence in Japan. Finally, the forecast methodology was consistent across all markets to allow for meaningful global comparisons of the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of NASH.

Scope

The Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of NASH in the 7MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases (both diagnosed and undiagnosed) of NASH segmented by age and sex. It also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of NASH, which are further segmented by comorbid disorders, including obesity, diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2D), hyperlipidemia, and hypertension in these markets.

The NASH epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.

Reasons to Buy

The NASH EpiCast report will allow you to

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global NASH market.

Quantify patient populations in the global NASH market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for NASH therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Identify the percentage of NASH prevalent cases by comorbidity.



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1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 5

1.1 List of Tables 6

1.2 List of Figures 7

2 Epidemiology 8

2.1 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 8

2.2 Global Trends 10

2.2.1 US 11

2.2.2 5EU 12

2.2.3 Japan 13

2.3 Forecast Methodology 14

2.3.1 Sources Used Tables 15

2.3.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 18

2.3.3 Sources Not Used 27

2.4 Epidemiological Forecast for NASH (2015-2025) 28

2.4.1 Total Prevalent Cases of NASH 28

2.4.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of NASH 30

2.4.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of NASH 32

2.4.4 Age-Standardized Prevalence of NASH 34

2.4.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NASH 35

2.4.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NASH by Comorbid Disorder 37

2.5 Discussion 39

2.5.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 39

2.5.2 Limitations of the Analysis 40

2.5.3 Strengths of the Analysis 42

3 Appendix 43

3.1 Bibliography 43

3.2 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 50

3.3 About the Authors 51

3.3.1 Epidemiologists 51

3.3.2 Reviewers 51

3.3.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 53

3.4 About GlobalData 54

3.5 About EpiCast 54

3.6 Disclaimer 55

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: 5EU, Total Prevalence of NAFLD and Obesity (%), Ages ?20 Years, Both Sexes 13

Figure 2: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of NASH, Both Sexes, Ages ?4 Years, Selected Years, 2015-2025 30

Figure 3: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of NASH, Both Sexes, 2015 32

Figure 4: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of NASH, Ages ?4 Years, 2015 34

Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of NASH, Ages ?4 Years, 2015 35

Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NASH, Both Sexes, Ages ?4 Years, Selected Years, 2015-2025 37

Figure 7: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NASH, by Comorbid Disorder, Ages ?4 Years, N, 2015 38

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for NASH 9

Table 2: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Total Prevalent Cases of NASH 15

Table 3: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NASH 16

Table 4: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NASH by Comorbid Disorder 17

Table 5: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of NASH, Both Sexes, Ages ?4 Years, Select Years, 2015-2025 29

Table 6: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of NASH, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 31

Table 7: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of NASH, Ages ?4 Years, N (Row %), 2015 33

Table 8: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NASH, Both Sexes, Ages ?4 Years, Select Years, 2015-2025 36

Table 9: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NASH, by Comorbid Disorder, Ages ?4 Years, N (Row %), 2015 38

Table 10: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country 50

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