EpiCast Report: Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

EpiCast Report: Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025


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Executive Summary

EpiCast Report: Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Summary

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disease of multifactorial origin that can affect any organ or organ system, resulting in a broad spectrum of clinical manifestations ranging from dermatological involvement to multi-organ failure with episodes of relapses and remissions. Because of its dynamic nature, this disease has an unpredictable natural course leading to high rates of morbidity and even death. The incidence and prevalence of SLE varies globally and the variation is attributed to a combination of elements such as the characteristics of the population studied, sex, ethnicity, geographical locations, occupational factors, familial traits, time of study, and the diagnostic criteria used.

In 2015, the 7MM had 475,698 diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE, for all ages, men and women combined. The US accounted for approximately 53% of the diagnosed prevalent cases (253,215) in the 7MM. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there will be 498,420 diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE in the 7MM by 2025, with an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.48% during the forecast period. The diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE are projected to increase in all markets, except for Germany and Japan, where there were slight decreases during the forecast period. The increase in the prevalent cases of SLE in the US and the UK are attributed to a forecast increase in SLE prevalence over time and changes in the underlying population. GlobalData epidemiologists held the prevalence constant for the remaining markets; thus any changes observed in the remaining markets are attributed to changes in the population.

GlobalData epidemiologists utilized data from country-specific studies published in peer-reviewed journals and governmental documents to provide the age- and sex-specific prevalence of diagnosed SLE in the respective markets. The forecast methodology was consistent across all of the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison among them.

Scope

The Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global and historical trends of SLE in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE (as per the 1997 revised American College of Rheumatology classification) segmented by sex, age, and severity. This report also provides an epidemiological forecast of the diagnosed prevalent cases of lupus nephritis (LN) among SLE patients for the 7MM, segmented into both 1995 WHO classifications (1985 for Japan) and 2003 ISN/RPS classifications.

The SLE epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.

Reasons to Buy

The SLE EpiCast report will allow you to

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global SLE market.

Quantify patient populations in the global SLE market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for SLE therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Identify the percentage of diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE by severity.



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1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4

1.1 List of Tables 6

1.2 List of Figures 7

2 Epidemiology 8

2.1 Disease Background 8

2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10

2.3 Global Trends 12

2.3.1 SLE and LN Prevalence 12

2.3.2 LN Classification 16

2.4 Forecast Methodology 16

2.4.1 Sources Used Tables 17

2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 22

2.4.3 Sources Not Used 34

2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for SLE (2015-2025) 36

2.5.1 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE 36

2.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE 38

2.5.3 Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of SLE 40

2.5.4 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of SLE 42

2.5.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases SLE Segmented by Severity 44

2.5.6 Prevalent Cases of LN 45

2.5.7 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN Segmented by Class 47

2.6 Discussion 52

2.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 52

2.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 53

2.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 55

3 Appendix 56

3.1 Bibliography 56

3.2 Primary Research-Prescriber Survey 60

3.3 About the Authors 61

3.3.1 Epidemiologists 61

3.3.2 Reviewers 61

3.3.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 63

3.4 About GlobalData 64

3.5 About EpiCast 64

3.6 Disclaimer 65

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: SLE Forecast Case Flow Map 17

Figure 2: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015-2025 37

Figure 3: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2015 40

Figure 4: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, By Sex, N, 2015 42

Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence (Cases per 100,000 Population) of SLE, All Ages, by Sex, 2015 43

Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, Men and Women, By Severity, N, 2015 45

Figure 7: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015?2025 47

Figure 8: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, Both Sexes, All Ages, by WHO Class, 2015 49

Figure 9: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, Both Sexes, All Ages, by ISN/RPS Class, 2015 51

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: The 1982 Revised ACR Criteria For Classification of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus 9

Table 2: WHO and ISN/RPS Classification Systems for LN 10

Table 3: Risk Factors for SLE 11

Table 4: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalence of SLE 18

Table 5: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalence of Mild and Moderate/Severe SLE 19

Table 6: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalence of LN 20

Table 7: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN Classified by the WHO Classification 21

Table 8: 7MM, Sources Used for Classifying LN by the ISN/RPS Classification 22

Table 9: 7MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Analysis of SLE 35

Table 10: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years 2015-2025 37

Table 11: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, Both Sexes, N, Row (%), 2015 39

Table 12: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, By Sex, N, Row (%), 2015 41

Table 13: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SLE, All Ages, Men and Women, By Severity, N, Row (%), 2015 44

Table 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years 2015-2025 46

Table 15: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, Both Sexes, All Ages, by WHO Class, Row (%), 2015 48

Table 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of LN, Both Sexes, All Ages, by ISN/RPS Class, Row (%), 2015 50

Table 17: High-Prescribing Physicians (Non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country 60

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