Construction in Japan - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022

Construction in Japan - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022


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Executive Summary

Construction in Japan-Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022

Summary

Japan's construction industry regained growth momentum in 2017, with output expanding by 2.6% in real terms-up from 1.2% in 2016. This growth was supported by the government spending in restoration of damaged civil engineering facilities and flourishing tourism sector. In the 2017 supplementary budget, the government increased its spending on the restoration of damaged civil engineering facilities from JPY109.3 billion (USD 1.0 billion) in 2016 to JPY290.7 billion (USD 2.6 billion) in 2017.

The industry is anticipated to post a marginal growth in 2018, as a result of a decrease in building permits and generally weaker demand. Moreover, the shrinking workforce population and labor shortage is expected to hamper the industry's output growth.

Over the forecast period (2018-2022), the industry's output value is expected to be supported by the government's efforts to promote economic growth through investment in tourism, manufacturing, energy and healthcare infrastructure projects. The government's investment in developing expressways will also support the construction industry's output over the forecast period. Additionally, the construction works related to the upcoming 2020 Olympic Games are expected to drive the growth of the industry.

The industry's output growth in real terms is expected to remain fairly stable, recording a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.31% over the forecast period, compared to a CAGR of 1.29% during the review period.

GlobalData's "Construction in Japan-Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022", report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Japanese construction industry, including-

- The Japanese construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity

- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Japanese construction industry

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Key Highlights

- GlobalData expects the infrastructure construction market output to record a forecast-period CAGR of 3.92% in nominal terms, supported by the government's effort to develop the country's road and airport infrastructure. In January 2018, the government announced a plan to invest JPY1.5 trillion (USD 13.9 billion) on the development of the Metropolitan Inter-City Expressway and the Tokai Expressway.

- The government efforts to promote the country's tourism sector will support construction activity in the commercial construction market over the forecast period. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, the government aims to attract 40.0 million visitors by 2020 and 60.0 million by 2030. Accordingly, in the 2018 budget, the government increased its allocation towards the tourism sector by 15.0%, going from JPY25.6 billion (USD 228.2 million) in 2017 to JPY29.4 billion (USD 262.1 million) in 2018.

- The government's focus on the development of the country's infrastructure ahead of the 2020 Olympic Games is expected to support growth in the Japanese construction industry over the forecast period. The total cost of construction related to the games is expected to be JPY182.2 billion (USD 1.7 billion).

- To reduce carbon emissions, the government is developing renewable energy infrastructure. Under the fifth basic energy plan, the government aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the country's total energy mix from 15.6% in 2017 to 22-24.0% in 2030. Consequently, public and private sector investments in energy infrastructure development to meet the government's targets will drive the energy and utilities construction market's growth over the forecast period.

- The total construction project pipeline in Japan-as tracked by GlobalData and including all mega projects with a value above USD 25 million-stands at JPY28.0 trillion (USD 249.9 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, is skewed towards late-stage development projects, with 62.0% of the pipeline value being in projects in the pre-execution and execution stages as of 2018.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Japan and also provides-

- Historical (2013-2017) and forecast (2018-2022) valuations of the construction industry in Japan, featuring details of key growth drivers.

- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.

- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants.

Reasons to buy

- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.

- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.

- Understand the latest industry and market trends.

- Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.

- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.

- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.



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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2

2. CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK: AT-A-GLANCE 3

3. LATEST NEWS AND INDICATORS 9

4. KEY DRIVERS AND RISKS 11

4.1. Economic Performance 11

4.2. Political Environment 11

4.3. Demographics 11

4.4. Risk Profile 12

5. CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK 13

5.1. All Construction 13

5.1.1. Outlook 13

5.1.2. Project analytics 15

5.2. Commercial Construction 18

5.2.1. Outlook 18

5.2.2. Project analytics 20

5.3. Industrial Construction 22

5.3.1. Outlook 22

5.3.2. Project analytics 24

5.4. Infrastructure Construction 26

5.4.1. Outlook 26

5.4.2. Project analytics 27

5.5. Energy and Utilities Construction 29

5.5.1. Outlook 29

5.5.2. Project analytics 30

5.6. Institutional Construction 32

5.6.1. Outlook 32

5.6.2. Project analytics 33

5.7. Residential Construction 35

5.7.1. Outlook 35

5.7.2. Project analytics 37

6. KEY INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS 39

6.1. Contractors 39

6.2. Consultants 41

7. APPENDIX 43

7.1. What is this Report About? 43

7.2. Definitions 43

8. ABOUT GLOBALDATA 47

8.1. GlobalData at a Glance 47

8.2. GlobalData Construction 48

8.3. Disclaimer 49

8.4. Contact Us 49

List of Figures

Figure 1: Key Markets, Construction Output Growth Matrix and Risk Matrix 3

Figure 2: Japan, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (JPY Trillion) 3

Figure 3: Japan, Real Estate Price Index (2010 = 100) 9

Figure 4: Japan, Risk Profile, Q3 2018 12

Figure 5: Japan, Risk Comparison, Q3 2018 12

Figure 6: Japan, Construction Output Value (Real, USD billion, 2017 prices and exchange rate) 13

Figure 7: Japan, Construction Output Value, Growth Matrix 14

Figure 8: Japan, Construction Output Value, by Sector (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 14

Figure 9: Japan, Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion), 2017-2022 15

Figure 10: Japan, Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion) 15

Figure 11: Japan, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 19

Figure 12: Japan, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion) 20

Figure 13: Japan, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion) 21

Figure 14: Japan, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 23

Figure 15: Japan, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion) 24

Figure 16: Japan, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion) 24

Figure 17: Japan, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 26

Figure 18: Japan, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion) 27

Figure 19: Japan, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion) 27

Figure 20: Japan, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 29

Figure 21: Japan, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion) 30

Figure 22: Japan, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion) 30

Figure 23: Japan, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 32

Figure 24: Japan, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion) 33

Figure 25: Japan, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion) 33

Figure 26: Japan, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 36

Figure 27: Japan, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (JPY Billion) 37

Figure 28: Japan, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (JPY Billion) 38

Figure 29: Japan, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline) 40

Figure 30: Japan, Headquarters of Foreign Contractors (% of Project Pipeline with Foreign Contractor) 40

Figure 31: Japan, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline) 42

Figure 32: Japan, Headquarters of Foreign Consultants (% of Project Pipeline with Foreign Consultants) 42

List of Tables

Table 1: Construction Outlook 3

Table 2: Japan, Key Economic Indicators 11

Table 3: Japan, Construction Output Value (nominal, JPY Billion) 16

Table 4: Japan, Construction Output Value (nominal, USD Million) 17

Table 5: Japan, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value 21

Table 6: Japan, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value 25

Table 7: Japan, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value 28

Table 8: Japan, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value 31

Table 9: Japan, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value 34

Table 10: Japan, Top Residential and Mixed-Use Construction Projects by Value 38

Table 11: Japan, Key Contractors 39

Table 12: Japan, Key Consultants 41

Table 13: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions 44

Table 14: Construction Risk Index Ratings and Scores 46

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Construction, Japanese Construction Industry, Commercial Construction, Institutional Construction, Industrial Construction, Infrastructure Construction, Residential Construction, Energy and Utilities Construction

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