Construction in Kazakhstan - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023

Construction in Kazakhstan - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023

Summary

Kazakhstan's construction industry expanded by 4.9% in real terms in 2018; this was preceded by an annual average growth of 4.3% during the preceding four years. Growth during the review period (2014-2018) was driven by positive developments in regional economic conditions, as well as government and private sector investment across transport and energy infrastructure projects.

The industry is expected to continue to expand in 2019, with the industry's output expected to register a growth of 9.5% in real terms that year. The industry has got off to a good start in 2019; in the first quarter of the year (the latest data available at the time of writing), the construction industry's value add grew by 8.4% year-on-year in real terms.

Over the forecast period (2019-2023), the industry's output is expected to be supported by the government's efforts to develop the country's transport infrastructure and housing sector. Under the National 2025 Strategic Development Plan, the government plans to develop the country's overall infrastructure and achieve sustainable economic growth. The plan seeks to achieve a GDP growth of 4.5-5% during the period of 2018-2025. Forecast-period growth will also be supported by the government's focus on developing renewable energy sources.

The industry's output value in real terms is expected to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.86% over the forecast period.

GlobalData expects the infrastructure construction market to account for 35% of the industry's total value in 2023, driven by the government's plan to develop the country's transport infrastructure. The plan is to get 100% of the national roads and 95% of the state roads up to a satisfactory and good condition by 2025. To achieve this target, the government plans to reconstruct 10,000km of roads and repair 11,000km of national roads and 27,000km of state roads by 2025.

Institutional construction market's output over the forecast-period is expected to be supported by the government's plan to build new hospitals and healthcare centers in the country. In October 2019, the government announced plans to build 16 new hospitals across the country with a total investment of KZT838.5 billion (USD 2.4 billion) through the Public Private Partnership (PPP) model by 2025. In June 2019, the government signed an agreement to build a 500-bed capacity of new hospitals in Turkestan under the PPP model by 2022.

Residential construction market's output is expected to recover over the forecast period, driven by the government's plan to build affordable houses for low- and middle-income citizens. In March 2019, the government launched the Bakytty Otbasy housing program, with an aim to provide housing loans at affordable rates to the poorer citizens in the country. Under this program, the government will provide housing loans at an interest rate of just 2%, with a 10% down payment, to low income families to buy their own houses. Additionally, under the Social Housing program, the government will provide mortgage loans at a 7% interest rate with a 20% down payment to middle- and low-income families.

GlobalData expects the energy and utilities construction market to record a forecast-period CAGR of 10.86% in nominal terms, supported by the government's aim to increase the share of renewable energy in the country's total energy mix from 1.3% in 2019 to 10% by 2030. In July 2019, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) signed an agreement with the government to provide loans worth KZT10.7 billion (USD 30.5 billion) to build new solar power plants in the country. In September 2019, the government also announced that it would build 50MW of new solar power plants in the Karaganda Region, with an investment of KZT21.2 billion (USD 60.2 million).

The total construction project pipeline in Kazakhstan - as tracked by GlobalData, and including all mega projects with a value above USD 25 million - stands at KZT57.7 trillion (USD 167.3 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, is relatively skewed towards late-stage projects, with 53.7% of the pipeline value being in projects in the pre-execution and execution stages as of December 2019.

GlobalData's Construction in Kazakhstan - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023 report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Kazakhstani construction industry, including -

- The Kazakhstani construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity

- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Kazakhstani construction industry

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Kazakhstan. It provides -

- Historical (2014-2018) and forecast (2019-2023) valuations of the construction industry in Kazakhstan, featuring details of key growth drivers.

- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.

- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to buy

- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.

- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.

- Understand the latest industry and market trends.

- Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.

- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.

- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.