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Colombia: The Telecoms and Pay-TV Services Markets Continue to Show Resiliency Despite Economic Headwinds

Colombia: The Telecoms and Pay-TV Services Markets Continue to Show Resiliency Despite Economic Headwinds


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Executive Summary

Among major currencies in the region, the Colombian peso, together with the Brazilian real, sharply depreciated during 2015. Largely as a result of the depreciation, Pyramid Research expects the Colombian telecom services market to decrease by over 21% in 2015 in US dollar terms, one of the highest revenue contractions in Latin America. Colombia will remain home to the fifth largest telecom services sector in Latin America, behind the region's giants, Brazil and Mexico, and less populous but higher income Argentina and Venezuela. Over the next five years, we anticipate Colombia's total market revenue will expand at a CAGR of 2.9% to reach US$9.1bn in 2020, generating a cumulative US$49.5bn between 2015 and 2020. In local currency terms, we expect the market to grow at a CAGR of 6.6% over the next five years.

Key Findings

- We expect mobile subscriptions in Colombia to record a modest increase of 3.9% in 2015, closing the year at 56.3m. This is equivalent to 116.8% of the population. Market leader Claro will control 52.3% of the market at year-end 2015, down from 54.9% in the previous year. Movistar and Tigo are the second and third largest mobile operators, with an estimated year-end 2015 market share of 28.3% and 17.6%, respectively

- LTE will be the primary technology for investment going forward. Major mobile operators in Colombia remain focused on extending the footprint of their LTE networks beyond populous urban centers. We expect LTE connections in Colombia to grow at a CAGR of 37.4% between 2015-2020, to reach 19.4m connections by year-end 2020

- Pyramid Research anticipates that Colombian telcos will add 554k fixed broadband lines during 2015, an increase over the 432K lines added during 2014. Cable and xDSL are the most adopted broadband technologies, while FTTH/B is still a niche solution. Looking ahead, we expect broadband lines to increase at a CAGR of 6.3% between 2015 and 2020, to reach 7.4m lines by year-end 2020, for a household penetration of 36.5%

- Pyramid Research expects the Colombian pay-TV market to generate US$1.0bn in service revenue in 2015, and reach a household penetration of 33.2%, below the regional average of 42.1%. Cable is the most adopted pay-TV technology in Colombia, with a year-end 2015 estimated share of 63.0%, followed by DTH/satellite and IPTV with 30.9% and 6.1% of the total, respectively. We anticipate that pay-TV subscriptions will grow at a CAGR of 4.5% over the forecast period, from 5.2m at year-end 2015 to 6.5m at year-end 2020

Synopsis

Pyramid Research's report - Colombia: The Telecoms and Pay-TV Services Markets Continue to Show Resiliency Despite Economic Headwinds provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Colombia today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into Colombia's telecom market, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Research's databases.

It provides in-depth analysis of the following:

- Colombia in a regional context; a comparative review of market size and trends with that of other countries in the region.

- Economic, demographic and political context in Colombia.

- The regulatory environment and trends; a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.

- A demand profile; analysis as well as forecasts and historical figures of service revenue from fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV markets.

- The service evolution; a look at the change in the breakdown of overall revenue by fixed/pay-TV and mobile sectors and by voice, data and video in the current year as well as the end of the forecast period.

- The competitive landscape; an examination of key trends in competition and service providers' performance, revenue market shares and expected moves over the next 18-24 months.

- An in-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony and broadband services, mobile voice and data services, and pay-TV services; a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by technology/platform as well as operator, average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.

- Main opportunities; this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Colombia's telecommunications and pay-TV markets.

Reasons To Buy

- Allows service providers, mobile operators, tower operators, equipment manufacturers/vendors, investment banks, management consulting companies, industry associations, and regulators, to understand the context of the Colombian telecom services market, to align business strategies.

- Understand Colombia's telecommunications regulatory framework, and how it will evolve over the next 18-24 months.

- Assess Colombia's fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV market size.

- Investigate current and forecast trends in Colombia's fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV markets.

- Gain insight on Colombia's telecoms and pay-TV market competitive landscape, examining key trends in competition and service providers' performance, revenue market shares and expected moves over the next five years.

- Identify and assess the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Colombia's

telecommunications and pay-TV markets.

Executive summary

Market and competitor overview

Regional context

Economic, demographic and political context

Regulatory environment

Demand profile

Service evolution

Competitive landscape

Major market players

Segment analysis

Mobile services

Fixed services

Pay-TV

Identifying opportunities

Overall market opportunities

Colombia telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major telecommunications policy issues

Colombia communications market revenue , 2013-2020

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015

Mobile data revenue mix, 2015, 2020

Total ARPS; data percentage of total ARPS, 20132020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2014-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015E

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Fixed market shares by service, 2015E

Fixed access lines by technology, 2015, 2020E

Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Colombia telecommunications market

Colombia telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major telecommunications policy issues

Colombia communications market revenue , 2013-2020

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015

Mobile data revenue mix, 2015, 2020

Total ARPS; data percentage of total ARPS, 20132020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2014-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015E

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Fixed market shares by service, 2015E

Fixed access lines by technology, 2015, 2020E

Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Colombia telecommunications market

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Latin America, Colombia, wireless spectrum, regulation, 2G, 3G, LTE, data traffic, fixed broadband, fixed voice, mobile broadband, mobile voice, pay-TV, VoIP, circuit-switched, FTTH, FTTB, cable, xDSL, PSTN, FWA, fiber, DTH, satellite, MVNO, M2M, prepaid, postpaid, narrowband, broadband, ARPS


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