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Ecuador: Long-awaited 4G Spectrum Allocation Spurs Competition and Investment in Telecoms Infrastructure

Ecuador: Long-awaited 4G Spectrum Allocation Spurs Competition and Investment in Telecoms Infrastructure


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Executive Summary

Summary

Ecuadors telecom and pay-TV market will generate USD3.4bn in service revenue in 2015, a small increase from USD3.3bn in 2014. With the ninth largest population in Latin America, Ecuador is home to the eight largest telecom services market in the region. Prevailing weaker consumer spending due tougher economic environment stemming from low oil prices, will result in a slight decrease in telecom revenue in 2016. We expect growth to resume in 2017 as oil prices and thus the economy progressively recover. More specifically, Pyramid Research expects Ecuadors telecom services market to grow at a CAGR of 2.4% over the next five years, to reach USD3.8bn in 2020 and generating a cumulative revenue of USD21.2bn between 2015 and 2020.

Key Findings

Claro and Movistar have conducted a clean-up of their prepaid base, which will help them with their market share positions and thus the fees they have to pay under the new regime. Following these major disconnections, we expect mobile subscription penetration of population in Ecuador to stand at 90.6% at year-end 2015, down from 114.7% a year earlier.

With just under 19% of all mobile subscriptions connected to 3G/3.5G networks, Ecuador has one of the lowest 3G penetration rates in Latin America, alongside Bolivia and Paraguay. Movistar and Claro commercially launched LTE services in March and July 2015, respectively, after acquiring 4G spectrum in February. We expect the number of LTE subscriptions in Ecuador to grow at a CAGR of 35.0% between 2015-2020, from 0.9m at year-end 2015 to over 4m by year-end 2020.

Broadband lines continue to proliferate in Ecuador. Through year end-2015, 210,000 fixed broadband lines were added, giving Ecuador 1.5m broadband access lines, a penetration rate of 9.8%. Pyramid Research estimates broadband lines will grow at a CAGR of 10.9% over the 2015-2020 period, to reach 2.6m by year-end 2020. Continued investment on the expansion of the national fiber optic backbone and the deployment of new undersea cables will support this growth.

Pyramid Research expects the Ecuadorian pay-TV market to generate USD285.5m in service revenue in 2015, up from USD228.3m in 2014. We also anticipate pay-TV providers will add a total of 214,000 pay-TV subscriptions in 2015, reaching a total of 1.4m subscribers and a household penetration of 48.8%, above the regional average of 42.1%.

Synopsis

Pyramid Researchs report -Ecuador: Long-awaited 4G Spectrum Allocation Spurs Competition and Investment in Telecoms Infrastructure provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Ecuador today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into Ecuadorians telecom market, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Researchs databases.

It provides in-depth analysis of the following

Ecuador in a regional context, a comparative review of market size and trends with that of other countries in the region.

Economic, demographic and political context in Ecuador.

The regulatory environment and trends; a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.

A demand profile; analysis as well as forecasts and historical figures of service revenue from fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV markets.

The service evolution; a look at the change in the breakdown of overall revenue by fixed/pay-TV and mobile sectors and by voice, data and video in the current year as well as the end of the forecast period.

The competitive landscape; an examination of key trends in competition and service providers performance, revenue market shares and expected moves over the next 18-24 months.

An in-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony and broadband services, mobile voice and data services, and pay-TV services; a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by technology/platform as well as operator, average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.

Main opportunities; this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Ecuadors telecommunications and pay-TV markets.

Reasons To Buy

Facilitates service providers, mobile operators, tower operators, equipment manufacturers/vendors, investment banks, management consulting companies, industry associations, and regulators, to gain a context of the Ecuadorn telecom services market, to align business strategies.

Understand Ecuadors telecommunications regulatory framework, and how it will evolve over the next 18-24 months.

Assess Ecuadors fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV market size.

Investigate current and forecast trends in Ecuadors fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV markets.

Gain insight on Ecuadors telecoms and pay-TV market competitive landscape, examining key trends in competition and service providers performance, revenue market shares and expected moves over the next five years.

Identify and assess the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Ecuadors telecommunications and pay-TV markets.

Executive summary

Market and competitor overview

Regional context

Economic, demographic and political context

Regulatory environment

Demand profile

Service evolution

Competitive landscape

Major market players

Segment analysis

Mobile services

Fixed services

Pay-TV

Identifying opportunities

Overall market opportunities

Ecuador telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major Telecommunications Policy issues

Ecuador communications market revenue , 2013-2020

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015E

Mobile Data Revenue mix

Total ARPS: Data percentage of Total ARPS, 2013-2020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Subscriptions by Technology Family, 2014-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015E

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Fixed market Shares by service, 2015E

Access lines by Technology, 2015E and 2020E

Pay-TV Subscriptions by Technology, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Ecuador telecommunications market

Ecuador telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major Telecommunications Policy issues

Ecuador communications market revenue , 2013-2020

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015E

Mobile Data Revenue mix

Total ARPS: Data percentage of Total ARPS, 2013-2020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Subscriptions by Technology Family, 2014-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015E

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Fixed market Shares by service, 2015E

Access lines by Technology, 2015E and 2020E

Pay-TV Subscriptions by Technology, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Ecuador telecommunications market

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Latin America, Ecuador, Wireless Spectrum, Regulation, 2g, 3g, Lte, Fixed Broadband, Fixed Voice, Mobile Broadband, Mobile Voice, Pay-tv, Voip, Circuit-switched, Ftth, Fttb, Cable, Xdsl, Pstn, Fwa, Fiber, Dth, Satellite, Mvno, M2m, Prepaid, Postpaid, Narrowband, Broadband, Arps


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