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Kenya: Rapid Growth in Mobile Data Revenue Driven by Mobile Money Services

Kenya: Rapid Growth in Mobile Data Revenue Driven by Mobile Money Services


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Executive Summary

Kenya is one of the largest telecom service markets in East Africa, with estimated revenue of $2.3bn in 2015, a 4.4% increase on the previous year. Mobile data is a major growth driver and will generate $946m or 41.7% of total revenue in 2015, boosted by increased mobile Internet access and the expansion of mobile money services such as Safaricom's M-Pesa and Airtel Money. Pyramid Research expects to see overall service revenue grow at a CAGR of 5.4% over the 2015-2020 period in dollar terms.

Key Findings

Pyramid Research expects to see overall service revenue grow at a CAGR of 5.4% over the 2015-2020 period in dollar terms. The fixed/mobile revenue split is forecast to remain stable and continue to be dominated by mobile services. The drivers of service revenue growth include expansion of mobile coverage to underserved areas, increased Internet access and the rise in usage of value-added services such as mobile money.

3G subscriptions will account for 24.0% of mobile subscriptions at year-end 2015. Safaricom is currently the sole provider of 4G services in Kenya. Airtel Kenya and Orange Kenya have been given permission to test 4G ahead of possible license award. Pyramid Research expects the wide rollout of 4G to begin in 2016.

The total number of broadband access lines will grow by 23.6% year-over-year to 130,000 in 2015. The rollout of fiber-optic cable will continue to drive growth, but we expect the number of xDSL lines to also grow steadily over the forecast period.

Synopsis

"Kenya: Rapid Growth in Mobile Data Revenue Driven by Mobile Money Services" provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Kenya today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into the telecom market of Kenya, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Research's databases.

It provides in-depth analysis of the following:

Kenya in a regional context; a comparative review of market size and trends with that of other countries in the region.

Economic, demographic and political context in Kenya.

The regulatory environment and trends; a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans and more.

A demand profile; analysis as well as forecasts and historical figures of service revenue from fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice and data markets.

Service evolution; a look at the change in the breakdown of overall revenue by fixed and mobile sectors and by voice and data in the current year as well as the end of the forecast period.

An in-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony and broadband services, mobile voice and data services; a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by technology/platform as well as operator, average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.

Main opportunities; this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in the telecommunications market in Kenya.

Reasons To Buy

Provides an overview of the Kenya telecom market through a combination of quantitative and qualitative insights. The graphical information consists of more than 20 charts and tables derived from Pyramid Research's forecast products.

Build profitable growth strategies by leveraging the analysis which includes an examination of current player strategies and the future trends of the Kenya telecommunications market.

Understand the factors behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Kenya's mobile communications, fixed telephony and broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares, to align product offerings and strategies to meet customer demand.

Gain insights on key telecom players in the market and their strategies to grow market share.

Explore novel opportunities to align your product strategies and offerings to meet customer requirements and succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Kenya.

Executive summary

Market and competitor overview Regional context

Economic, demographic and political context

Regulatory environment

Demand profile

Service evolution

Competitive landscape

Major market players

Segment analysis Mobile services

Fixed services

Identifying opportunities Overall market opportunities

Kenya telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major telecommunications policy issues

Kenya communications market revenue , 2013-2020

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015

Mobile data revenue mix, 2015, 2020

Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2013-2020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2013-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Kenyan telecommunications market

Kenya telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major telecommunications policy issues

Kenya communications market revenue , 2013-2020

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015

Mobile data revenue mix, 2015, 2020

Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2013-2020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2013-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Kenyan telecommunications market

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Safaricom

Airtel Kenya

Orange Kenya

Telkom Kenya

Helios Investment Partners

YuMobile

Safaricom, Airtel Kenya, Orange Kenya, Telkom Kenya, fixed market, mobile voice, mobile data, 2G in Kenya, 3G in Kenya, 4G in Kenya, fiber cable in Kenya, LTE in Kenya, fixed internet in Kenya, fixed circuit-switched voice in Kenya, the Communications Authority of Kenya (CAK), Helios Investment Partners, Liquid Telecom, DStv, Zuku, StarTimes


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