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Mobile Broadband in Southeast Asia: Adoption and Usage Trends and Operator Strategy

Mobile Broadband in Southeast Asia: Adoption and Usage Trends and Operator Strategy


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Executive Summary

Mobile broadband traffic will grow rapidly in continental SE Asia, driven by the expansion of 3G and 4G networks and the proliferation of cheap smartphones; the fastest growth will come in the less developed markets. The region's 3G markets have had time to mature prior to the 4G launches, but 2G networks will give way to 3G and 4G over the next five years: we expect combined 3G and 4G subscriptions to make up 88% of the regional total by 2020. Mobile data usage per 4G subscription is substantially higher than that of 3G subscriptions, and we expect average data usage per subscription to grow at annual rates of 20-40% over the next five years. Operators will rely on additional spectrum for rural expansion and capacity buildouts. Common approaches to driving mobile broadband adoption include data-centric bundles, zero-rated OTT apps and discounting of high-volume data plans. OTT services and social media are also important.

Key Findings

- Continental Southeast Asia is a highly penetrated mobile region, with overall subscriptions surpassing 128% of the population in 2015. Pyramid Research expects mobile subscriptions to grow at a CAGR of 2.4% from 2015 to 2020, pushing the penetration rate to 139%. LTE will grow at a 54% CAGR over the period.

- The vast majority of subscriptions will be on 3G or 4G networks by 2020. Overall, 3G will make up 71% of all subscriptions, 4G 17% and 2G 12%.

- The region has an estimated 142m mobile broadband subscriptions at year-end 2015, and we expect that number to grow at a 14.3% CAGR to 292m in 2020, driven mainly by smartphone adoption and 3G and 4G network expansion. Annual mobile data traffic will total 1,747PB in 2015, increasing to 10,799PB in 2020. We expect average monthly data usage per user to climb from 1,236MB to 3,579MB over the same period.

- Operators in continental SE Asia are focusing on urban centers for their initial mobile broadband network deployments but for rural expansion and capacity buildout will rely on additional spectrum, particularly in lower frequencies.

- As revenue from voice declines, operators are turning to multiple service pricing and positioning strategies to drive data adoption and usage, including OTT partnerships, discounting of bulk data, bundling and smartphone promotions.

Synopsis

This Telecom Insider Report, 'Mobile Broadband in Southeast Asia: Adoption and Usage Trends and Operator Strategy,' by Pyramid Research offers a thorough analysis of the mobile broadband market in continental Southeast Asia, focusing on trends in mobile data usage, the forces driving the rising adoption of mobile broadband and the various strategies operators employ to drive data revenue. First, the report provides top-level context on the current state of the mobile broadband markets in Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam, highlighting demographic, regulatory and economic factors that affect mobile broadband usage and adoption, including information on the mobile spectrum regulatory environments and forecasts of mobile subscriptions for all six countries. The report then breaks down mobile data usage trends for each of the markets, analyzing total and average usage by technology generation and prepaid versus postpaid data users. It examines operator strategies for maximizing adoption and revenue from mobile data given the market environment in Southeast Asia, and it concludes with four operator case studies.

What else does this Telecom Insider Report offer?

- Forecasts of mobile penetration by technology (2G, 3G and 4G) in each of Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.

- Forecasts of smartphone subscriptions for all six countries (2012, 2015 and 2020).

- Forecasts of mobile broadband traffic for the six countries (2012, 2015, 2020).

- Detailed discussions of the strategies used by operators to drive mobile broadband revenue.

- Four case studies of mobile operators: Maxis in Malaysia, MPT in Myanmar, Viettel in Vietnam and AIS in Thailand.

- Forty-five exhibits that provide information on topics ranging from licensed spectrum and data usage per user to pricing and differences between prepaid and postpaid data usage.

- Actionable recommendations of best practices for mobile network operators.

Reasons To Buy

- Learn about the prospects for mobile broadband usage and adoption in the region, both from direct subscription and traffic forecasts and from an analysis of the demographic, regulatory and economic factors that affect these prospects.

- Get reliable information about the strategies operators in this diverse set of markets use to drive mobile broadband revenue - strategies related to spectrum, service positioning, pricing, bundling, OTT partnerships and devices.

- Read detailed case studies showing what operators in four markets are doing to boost mobile data usage and adoption, with a particular look at the pricing strategies they employ.

- Get a clear view of how operators can use the popularity of OTT platforms to cost-effectively boost data adoption and drive overall data usage.

- Use the reports section of actionable recommendations to develop longer-term strategies for mobile broadband growth.

- The report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality that allows it to be turned into presentable material immediately.

Continental Southeast Asiamarket context

Economic and demographic trends

Mobile subscription penetration forecast

Timeline of commercial 3G and 4G service launches

Currentmobile broadband spectrumbands

Forecast: Mobile penetration by technology generation

Forecast: Mobile broadband and smartphonesubscriptions

Mobile broadband traffic and usage

Forecast: Mobile broadband traffic

Mobile broadband averagemonthly usagetrends

Mobile data usage and adoption trends

Mobile broadband usage: Prepaid-postpaid breakdown

Operator strategies to drive mobile broadband revenue

Mobile broadband strategy:Spectrum

Mobile broadband strategy:Service positioning and

pricing overview

Mobile broadband strategy: Pricing

Mobile broadband strategy:Bundling

Mobile broadband strategy:OTTpartnerships

Mobile broadband strategy:Devices

Case studies

Maxis in Malaysia

MPT in Myanmar

Viettel in Vietnam

AIS in Thailand

Key findings and recommendations

About Pyramid Research

Exhibit 1: Regional GDP &population, 2015-2020

Exhibit 2: PPP GDP per capita by country,2015 &2020

Exhibit 3: Mobile penetration of population by country,2015 and 2020

Exhibit 4: Timeline of first commercial 3G and 4G launches, by country

Exhibit 5: First nationwide3G launches

Exhibit 6: First nationwide4G launches

Exhibit 7: 3G spectrum bands by country

Exhibit 8: 4G spectrum bands by country

Exhibit 9: Mobile subscription penetration of population by country,2015

Exhibit10: Mobile subscription penetration of population by country,2020

Exhibit11: Mobile, mobile broadband subscriptions, continental SoutheastAsia

Exhibit12: Smartphonesubscriptions by country;2012,2015,2020

Exhibit13: Annualmobile broadband trafficby country,2012,2015,2020

Exhibit14: Mobile broadband usageper subscription per month, 3G, 4G& average, 2015

Exhibit15: Projected CAGRs of averagemonthly mobile broadband usageper subscription,2015-2020

Exhibit16: Averagemonthly data use & 4Gpenetration, SE Asia, 2012-2015

Exhibit17: Smartphonepenetration& average data usage, SE Asia, 2015

Exhibit18: Mobile broadband usageper subscription per month, 2015: Prepaid vs.postpaid

Exhibit19: Mobile broadband usageper subscription per month, 2020: Prepaid vs.postpaid

Exhibit20: Mobile operator LTE networks by band, continental SE Asia

Exhibit21: Voice ARPS CAGRs, 2015-2020

Exhibit22: Mobile broadband servicepositioning parameters

Exhibit23: Averagerevenueper megabyte by country;2015-2020

Exhibit24: Averageprice per MB by plan &country,2015

Exhibit25: Mobile operator LTE networks by band, continental SE Asia

Exhibit26: Most downloaded smartphoneapps 2015

Exhibit27: Operator own-branded smartphonepromotions

Exhibit28: Averagemonthly data usage 2015

Exhibit29: Maxismobile broadband spectrumby band

Exhibit30: Maxismobile data pricing

Exhibit31: Maxis average monthly prepaid& postpaid data usage, 2Q 2014-2Q 2015

Exhibit32: Mobile broadband shares of total subscriptions by operator,Malaysia, 2Q 2014-4Q 2015

Exhibit33: MPT mobile broadband spectrumby band

Exhibit34: unallocated 3G/4Gspectrum in Myanmar

Exhibit35: MPT mobile data pricing

Exhibit36: MPT averagemonthly 2G, 3G and 4G data usage per user, 2014-2020

Exhibit37: Mobile broadband shares of total subscriptions by operator,Myanmar, 2014-2020

Exhibit38: Viettel mobile broadband spectrumby band

Exhibit39: Viettel mobile data pricing

Exhibit40: Viettel average monthly 2G, 3Gand 4Gdata usage per user, 2014-2020

Exhibit41: Mobile broadband shares of all subscriptions by operator, Vietnam, 2014-2020

Exhibit42: AISmobile broadband spectrumby band

Exhibit43: AISmobile data pricing

Exhibit44: AIS average monthly 2G, 3G and 4G data usage per user, 2014-2020

Exhibit45: Mobile broadband shares of total subscriptions by operator, Thailand, 2014-2020

Exhibit 1: Regional GDP &population, 2015-2020

Exhibit 2: PPP GDP per capita by country,2015 &2020

Exhibit 3: Mobile penetration of population by country,2015 and 2020

Exhibit 4: Timeline of first commercial 3G and 4G launches, by country

Exhibit 5: First nationwide3G launches

Exhibit 6: First nationwide4G launches

Exhibit 7: 3G spectrum bands by country

Exhibit 8: 4G spectrum bands by country

Exhibit 9: Mobile subscription penetration of population by country,2015

Exhibit10: Mobile subscription penetration of population by country,2020

Exhibit11: Mobile, mobile broadband subscriptions, continental SoutheastAsia

Exhibit12: Smartphonesubscriptions by country;2012,2015,2020

Exhibit13: Annualmobile broadband trafficby country,2012,2015,2020

Exhibit14: Mobile broadband usageper subscription per month, 3G, 4G& average, 2015

Exhibit15: Projected CAGRs of averagemonthly mobile broadband usageper subscription,2015-2020

Exhibit16: Averagemonthly data use & 4Gpenetration, SE Asia, 2012-2015

Exhibit17: Smartphonepenetration& average data usage, SE Asia, 2015

Exhibit18: Mobile broadband usageper subscription per month, 2015: Prepaid vs.postpaid

Exhibit19: Mobile broadband usageper subscription per month, 2020: Prepaid vs.postpaid

Exhibit20: Mobile operator LTE networks by band, continental SE Asia

Exhibit21: Voice ARPS CAGRs, 2015-2020

Exhibit22: Mobile broadband servicepositioning parameters

Exhibit23: Averagerevenueper megabyte by country;2015-2020

Exhibit24: Averageprice per MB by plan &country,2015

Exhibit25: Mobile operator LTE networks by band, continental SE Asia

Exhibit26: Most downloaded smartphoneapps 2015

Exhibit27: Operator own-branded smartphonepromotions

Exhibit28: Averagemonthly data usage 2015

Exhibit29: Maxismobile broadband spectrumby band

Exhibit30: Maxismobile data pricing

Exhibit31: Maxis average monthly prepaid& postpaid data usage, 2Q 2014-2Q 2015

Exhibit32: Mobile broadband shares of total subscriptions by operator,Malaysia, 2Q 2014-4Q 2015

Exhibit33: MPT mobile broadband spectrumby band

Exhibit34: unallocated 3G/4Gspectrum in Myanmar

Exhibit35: MPT mobile data pricing

Exhibit36: MPT averagemonthly 2G, 3G and 4G data usage per user, 2014-2020

Exhibit37: Mobile broadband shares of total subscriptions by operator,Myanmar, 2014-2020

Exhibit38: Viettel mobile broadband spectrumby band

Exhibit39: Viettel mobile data pricing

Exhibit40: Viettel average monthly 2G, 3Gand 4Gdata usage per user, 2014-2020

Exhibit41: Mobile broadband shares of all subscriptions by operator, Vietnam, 2014-2020

Exhibit42: AISmobile broadband spectrumby band

Exhibit43: AISmobile data pricing

Exhibit44: AIS average monthly 2G, 3G and 4G data usage per user, 2014-2020

Exhibit45: Mobile broadband shares of total subscriptions by operator, Thailand, 2014-2020

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To know more information on Purchase by Section, please send a mail to query [@] kenresearch.com
 

AIS

Apple

Celcom Axiata

Digi Telecommunications

Dtac

ETL

Facebook

Lao Telecom

Lava

Line,

Maxis

Metfone

MobiFone

Mobitel (Cellcard)

MPT (Myanma Posts and Telecommunications)

MPT

Ooredoo Myanmar

Seatel

Smart Axiata

Telenor

TrueMove

Twitter

U Mobile

Unitel

Viber

Viettel

Vinaphone

WeChat

WhatsApp

YouTube

Zalo

Continental Southeast Asia, SE Asia, SEA, mobile penetration, mobile subscriptions, mobile broadband traffic, 3G networks, 4G networks, smartphones, 4G launches, 4G subscriptions, 3G subscribers, mobile data usage, average data usage per subscription, annual growth rates, spectrum, rural expansion, capacity, driving mobile broadband adoption, data-centric bundles, zero-rated OTT apps, pricing, high-volume data plans, OTT services, social media, LTE, CAGR, smartphone adoption, network expansion, average monthly data usage per user, megabytes, operators, mobile broadband network deployments, lower frequencies, revenue, voice, OTT partnerships, bulk data, bundling, mobile broadband markets, regulatory environment, forecasts, prepaid versus postpaid data users, operator strategies, MNOs, case studies, spectrum efficiency, refarming 2G spectrum, social networking services, device sales, postpaid data plans, Wi-Fi networks, cellular data plans, AIS, Celcom Axiata, Facebook, Line, Maxis, MPT (Myanma Posts and Telecommunications), Viettel, WeChat, WhatsApp, YouTube, Zalo, Asia-Pacific; continental Southeast Asia: Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam


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