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The Netherlands: Growing Adoption of LTE and LTE-A Based Services Will Drive Mobile Revenue Growth

The Netherlands: Growing Adoption of LTE and LTE-A Based Services Will Drive Mobile Revenue Growth


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Executive Summary

The Dutch telecom market revenue is expected to reach USD13.2bn by the end of 2020 from USD11.7bn (EUR10.6bn) in 2015. Going forward, Pyramid Research expects mobile revenue to invert its decline trend in 2017 and total service revenue - fixed, mobile and pay-TV - to return to growth from 2017 onward. The adoption of LTE and LTE-A based services will move beyond early-adopter status by 2017 - this will improve the customer mix and make the ARPS more resilient. Mobile data services became the largest source of revenue in 2015 and will continue to offer the largest revenue opportunity over the next five years. Competition in the market remains high and all operators seem well-positioned to curb opportunities in the M2M market - the major source of subscriber growth over the next few years. Heavy investment in network expansion will enable operators to offer faster broadband speeds to meet consumers' needs. The pay-TV market is expected to be driven by IPTV, which leverages the DSL and fiber broadband bases. Fixed-mobile bundles were launched by KPN in 2013, and consumer uptake reached 23% of its fixed broadband customer base in September 2015. Vodafone offers additional benefits to its Red mobile customers choosing its triple-play offering (fixed telephony, internet and TV).

Key Findings

Netherlands is the sixth largest telecom services market in the Western European region, with estimated revenue of USD11.7bn, or 1.6% of nominal GDP in 2015. Pyramid Research expects telecom service revenue to reach USD13.2bn in 2020 (2.2% CAGR in local currency) as the increase in broadband lines and data traffic will push revenue up.

The revenue mix will continue to be dominated by mobile services due to growth in mobile data, which will be driven by increasing adoption of 4G services and ongoing investments in LTE-A expansion by operators. Fixed and mobile data revenue will account for 60.8% of total revenue in 2020, up from 51.9% in 2015.

The top two operators -KPN and Ziggo (including UPC), which provides mobile, broadband, TV and fixed voice services - will together account for 62.7% of overall service revenue in 2015 and increase to 63.8% in 2020.

Synopsis

"The Netherlands: Growing Adoption of LTE and LTE-A Based Services Will Drive Mobile Revenue Growth" provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in the Netherlands today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into the Netherlands's telecom market, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Research's databases.

The Country Intelligence Report provides in-depth analysis of the following:

Regional context: telecom market size and trends in the Netherlands compared with other countries in the region.

Economic, demographic and political context in the Netherlands.

The regulatory environment and trends: a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.

A demand profile: analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, mobile data.

Service evolution: a look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2013 to 2020.

The competitive landscape: an examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.

In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice and mobile data services: a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.

Main opportunities: this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in the Netherlands' telecommunications markets.

Reasons To Buy

Gain in-depth analysis of current strategies and future trends of the Netherlands' telecommunications market, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format, to build proactive and profitable growth strategies.

Understand the factors behind ongoing and upcoming trends in the Netherlands' mobile communications, fixed telephony and broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares, to align product offerings and strategies to meet customer's demand.

Leverage the graphical information (more than 20 charts and tables in the report based on the Pyramid Research forecast products), to gain an overview of the Netherlands' telecom market.

Analysis of key telecom players in the markets and major business strategies being adopted by them, to identify the opportunities to improve the market share.

Explore novel opportunities to align your product strategies and offerings to meet the requirements and succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in the Netherlands.

Executive summary

Market and competitor overview

Regional context

Economic, demographic and political context

Regulatory environment

Demand profile

Service evolution

Competitive landscape

Major market players

Segment analysis

Mobile services

Fixed services

Pay-TV

Identifying opportunities

Overall market opportunities

Netherlands telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major telecommunications policy issues

Netherlands communications market revenue , 2013-2020, USD

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020, USD

Netherlands communications market revenue , 2013-2020, EUR

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020, EUR

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015

Mobile data revenue mix, 2015, 2020

Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2013-2020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2013-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Fixed market shares by service, 2015

Fixed access lines by technology, 2015, 2020

Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Netherlands telecommunications market

Netherlands telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major telecommunications policy issues

Netherlands communications market revenue , 2013-2020, USD

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020, USD

Netherlands communications market revenue , 2013-2020, EUR

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020, EUR

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015

Mobile data revenue mix, 2015, 2020

Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2013-2020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2013-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Fixed market shares by service, 2015

Fixed access lines by technology, 2015, 2020

Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Netherlands telecommunications market

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KPN

Vodafone

Tele2

T-Mobile

Ziggo (UPC)

Netherlands, mobile data in Netherlands, fixed data in Netherlands, Netherlands mobile broadband, Netherlands fixed broadband, prepaid in Netherlands, postpaid in Netherlands, 3G in Netherlands, 4G in Netherlands, LTE in Netherlands, Cable in Netherlands, Netherlands IPTV, Netherlands pay-TV, Netherlands FTTH, KPN, Vodafone, Tele2, T-Mobile, Ziggo.


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