EpiCast Report: Ulcerative Colitis-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

EpiCast Report: Ulcerative Colitis-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025


  • Products Id :- GDHCER146-16
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  • Pages: 101
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Executive Summary

EpiCast Report: Ulcerative Colitis-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Summary

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) characterized by long-lasting inflammation and ulcers (sores) in the lining of the digestive tract. In UC, because of an abnormal response of the body's immune system, the lining of the colon becomes inflamed and develops tiny open sores, or ulcers, that produce pus and mucous. This causes abdominal discomfort and frequent emptying of the colon. There is no cure for UC except surgical removal of the colon, but medications can help curb the inflammatory response and symptoms. UC commonly affects teenagers and young adults, and can result in poor development and growth; nonetheless, the disease can also occur in children and older individuals.

In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed incident cases of UC will increase from 86,509 cases in 2015 to 95,864 cases in 2025, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.08%. The US will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of UC over the forecast period, while Spain will have the lowest.

In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC will increase from 1,628,113 cases in 2015 to 1,711,603 cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.51%. The US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of UC over the forecast period, while Spain will have the lowest.

To forecast the diagnosed incident and diagnosed prevalent cases of UC in the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists used country-specific studies and peer-reviewed journals that provided age- and sex-specific diagnosed incidence and/or diagnosed prevalence of UC in the respective markets. The forecast methodology was consistent across the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast incident and prevalent cases of UC across these markets.

Scope

The Ulcerative Colitis (UC) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of UC in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases, diagnosed prevalent cases, undiagnosed prevalent cases, and total prevalent cases of UC segmented by sex and age in these seven markets. The diagnosed incident cases are further segmented by stage at diagnosis and severity grading. The diagnosed prevalent cases are further segmented by severity grading. Additionally, autoimmune comorbidities, colectomy due to failure of medical management, and mortality due to complications of UC among the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC are also included in this analysis. Furthermore, the report includes diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of indeterminate colitis (IC) for both sexes and all ages in the 7MM.

The UC epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.

Reasons to Buy

The UC EpiCast report will allow you to

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global UC market.

Quantify patient populations in the global UC market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for UC therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Identify the percentage of diagnosed incident cases of UC by stage at diagnosis and severity grading.



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1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 6

1.1 List of Tables 7

1.2 List of Figures 9

2 Epidemiology 11

2.1 Disease Background 11

2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 12

2.3 Global Trends 13

2.3.1 Incidence 14

2.3.2 Prevalence 17

2.4 Forecast Methodology 20

2.4.1 Sources Used 20

2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 31

2.4.3 Sources Not Used 49

2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for UC (2015-2025) 50

2.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC 50

2.5.2 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 58

2.5.3 Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 69

2.5.4 Total Prevalent Cases of UC 76

2.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of IC 83

2.5.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of IC 85

2.6 Discussion 86

2.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 86

2.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 87

2.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 88

3 Appendix 90

3.1 Bibliography 90

3.2 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 95

3.3 About the Authors 97

3.3.1 Epidemiologists 97

3.3.2 Reviewers 97

3.3.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 98

3.4 About GlobalData 99

3.5 About EpiCast 99

3.6 Disclaimer 100

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, 2015-2025 51

Figure 2: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 53

Figure 3: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, All Ages, N, 2015 55

Figure 4: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of UC (Cases per 100,000 Population), All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015 56

Figure 5: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC Segmented by Stage at Diagnosis, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 57

Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC Segmented by Severity, Both Sexes, All ages, N, 2015 58

Figure 7: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, 2015-2025 59

Figure 8: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N, 2015 62

Figure 9: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N, 2015 64

Figure 10: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of UC, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, 2015 65

Figure 11: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC Segmented by Severity, Both Cases, All Ages, N, 2015 66

Figure 12: 7MM, Mortality Due to Complications Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 67

Figure 13: 7MM, Colectomy Due to Failure of Medical Management Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 68

Figure 14: 7MM. Comorbidities Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 69

Figure 15: 7MM, Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, N, 2015-2025 71

Figure 16: 7MM, Age-Specific Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N, 2015 73

Figure 17: 7MM, Sex-Specific Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N, 2015 75

Figure 18: 7MM, Age-Standardized Undiagnosed Prevalence of UC, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, 2015 76

Figure 19: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, N, 2015-2025 77

Figure 20: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N, 2015 80

Figure 21: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N, 2015 82

Figure 22: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of UC, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, 2015 83

Figure 23: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of IC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, N, 2015-2025 84

Figure 24: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of IC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, N, 2015-2025 86

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for UC and IBD 12

Table 2: Incidence of UC in the 5EU 16

Table 3: Prevalence of UC in Italy, Spain, and the UK 19

Table 4: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC 21

Table 5: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 22

Table 6: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 23

Table 7: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Total Prevalent Cases of UC 24

Table 8: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC by Stage at Diagnosis 25

Table 9: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident/Prevalent Cases of UC by Severity 26

Table 10: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data used to Forecast Mortality Due to CRC and TMC Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 27

Table 11: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Autoimmune Comorbidities Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 28

Table 12: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast UC Cases Requiring Colectomy Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC Due to Failure of Medical Management 29

Table 13: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of IC 30

Table 14: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of IC 31

Table 15: 7MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Analysis of UC 49

Table 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 50

Table 17: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 52

Table 18: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 54

Table 19: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2015-2025 59

Table 20: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 61

Table 21: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 63

Table 22: 7MM, Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 70

Table 23: 7MM, Age-Specific Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 72

Table 24: 7MM, Sex-Specific Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 74

Table 25: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2015-2025 77

Table 26: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 79

Table 27: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 81

Table 28: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of IC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2015-2025 84

Table 29: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of IC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2015-2025 85

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