EpiCast Report: Ulcerative Colitis-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025
January 2017
101
About the Report
About the Report
EpiCast Report: Ulcerative Colitis-Epidemiology Forecast to 2025
Summary
Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) characterized by long-lasting inflammation and ulcers (sores) in the lining of the digestive tract. In UC, because of an abnormal response of the body's immune system, the lining of the colon becomes inflamed and develops tiny open sores, or ulcers, that produce pus and mucous. This causes abdominal discomfort and frequent emptying of the colon. There is no cure for UC except surgical removal of the colon, but medications can help curb the inflammatory response and symptoms. UC commonly affects teenagers and young adults, and can result in poor development and growth; nonetheless, the disease can also occur in children and older individuals.
In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed incident cases of UC will increase from 86,509 cases in 2015 to 95,864 cases in 2025, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.08%. The US will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of UC over the forecast period, while Spain will have the lowest.
In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC will increase from 1,628,113 cases in 2015 to 1,711,603 cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.51%. The US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of UC over the forecast period, while Spain will have the lowest.
To forecast the diagnosed incident and diagnosed prevalent cases of UC in the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists used country-specific studies and peer-reviewed journals that provided age- and sex-specific diagnosed incidence and/or diagnosed prevalence of UC in the respective markets. The forecast methodology was consistent across the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast incident and prevalent cases of UC across these markets.
Scope
The Ulcerative Colitis (UC) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of UC in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases, diagnosed prevalent cases, undiagnosed prevalent cases, and total prevalent cases of UC segmented by sex and age in these seven markets. The diagnosed incident cases are further segmented by stage at diagnosis and severity grading. The diagnosed prevalent cases are further segmented by severity grading. Additionally, autoimmune comorbidities, colectomy due to failure of medical management, and mortality due to complications of UC among the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC are also included in this analysis. Furthermore, the report includes diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of indeterminate colitis (IC) for both sexes and all ages in the 7MM.
The UC epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.
Reasons to Buy
The UC EpiCast report will allow you to
Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global UC market.
Quantify patient populations in the global UC market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for UC therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
Identify the percentage of diagnosed incident cases of UC by stage at diagnosis and severity grading.
Products
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 6
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 9
2 Epidemiology 11
2.1 Disease Background 11
2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 12
2.3 Global Trends 13
2.3.1 Incidence 14
2.3.2 Prevalence 17
2.4 Forecast Methodology 20
2.4.1 Sources Used 20
2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 31
2.4.3 Sources Not Used 49
2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for UC (2015-2025) 50
2.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC 50
2.5.2 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 58
2.5.3 Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 69
2.5.4 Total Prevalent Cases of UC 76
2.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of IC 83
2.5.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of IC 85
2.6 Discussion 86
2.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 86
2.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 87
2.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 88
3 Appendix 90
3.1 Bibliography 90
3.2 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 95
3.3 About the Authors 97
3.3.1 Epidemiologists 97
3.3.2 Reviewers 97
3.3.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 98
3.4 About GlobalData 99
3.5 About EpiCast 99
3.6 Disclaimer 100
List of Figure
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, 2015-2025 51
Figure 2: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 53
Figure 3: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, All Ages, N, 2015 55
Figure 4: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of UC (Cases per 100,000 Population), All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015 56
Figure 5: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC Segmented by Stage at Diagnosis, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 57
Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC Segmented by Severity, Both Sexes, All ages, N, 2015 58
Figure 7: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, 2015-2025 59
Figure 8: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N, 2015 62
Figure 9: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N, 2015 64
Figure 10: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of UC, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, 2015 65
Figure 11: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC Segmented by Severity, Both Cases, All Ages, N, 2015 66
Figure 12: 7MM, Mortality Due to Complications Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 67
Figure 13: 7MM, Colectomy Due to Failure of Medical Management Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 68
Figure 14: 7MM. Comorbidities Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2015 69
Figure 15: 7MM, Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, N, 2015-2025 71
Figure 16: 7MM, Age-Specific Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N, 2015 73
Figure 17: 7MM, Sex-Specific Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N, 2015 75
Figure 18: 7MM, Age-Standardized Undiagnosed Prevalence of UC, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, 2015 76
Figure 19: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, N, 2015-2025 77
Figure 20: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N, 2015 80
Figure 21: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N, 2015 82
Figure 22: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of UC, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, 2015 83
Figure 23: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of IC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, N, 2015-2025 84
Figure 24: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of IC, Both Sexes, All Ages, Selected Years, N, 2015-2025 86
List of Table
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for UC and IBD 12
Table 2: Incidence of UC in the 5EU 16
Table 3: Prevalence of UC in Italy, Spain, and the UK 19
Table 4: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC 21
Table 5: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 22
Table 6: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 23
Table 7: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Total Prevalent Cases of UC 24
Table 8: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC by Stage at Diagnosis 25
Table 9: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident/Prevalent Cases of UC by Severity 26
Table 10: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data used to Forecast Mortality Due to CRC and TMC Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 27
Table 11: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Autoimmune Comorbidities Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC 28
Table 12: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast UC Cases Requiring Colectomy Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC Due to Failure of Medical Management 29
Table 13: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of IC 30
Table 14: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of IC 31
Table 15: 7MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Analysis of UC 49
Table 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 50
Table 17: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 52
Table 18: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of UC, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 54
Table 19: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2015-2025 59
Table 20: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 61
Table 21: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 63
Table 22: 7MM, Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Select Years, 2015-2025 70
Table 23: 7MM, Age-Specific Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 72
Table 24: 7MM, Sex-Specific Undiagnosed Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 74
Table 25: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2015-2025 77
Table 26: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of UC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 79
Table 27: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of UC, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 81
Table 28: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of IC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2015-2025 84
Table 29: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of IC, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, Selected Years, 2015-2025 85
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