Vietnam Carbonated Drinks Market Outlook to 2030

The market was estimated at USD 1,880 Mn in 2025, measured as domestic consumer sales of packaged carbonated soft drinks at realized retail and foodservice value. The scope includes regular and zero-sugar cola, lemon-lime products, fruit-flavored carbonates, soda water, tonic water, and specialty sparkling drinks. It excludes energy drinks, bottled water, juice, ready-to-drink tea and coffee, and alcoholic beverages. The estimate reconciles company activity, category volume, consumer consumption, channel pricing, and published market reference points.

The market is projected to grow at a 4.6% CAGR during 2026-2031, reaching USD 2,462 Mn in 2031. Growth is expected to slow during the initial implementation of the sugar-sweetened beverage tax, before improving as reformulated products, premium formats, convenience retail, quick commerce, tourism, and foodservice contribute more value. Physical volume is forecast to grow more slowly than revenue, meaning price, packaging, channel, and sugar-content mix will account for a meaningful share of industry expansion.

Profit pools are expected to move toward zero-sugar products, premium mixers, smaller convenience packs, aluminum cans, foodservice systems, and digitally distributed multipacks. Low and zero-sugar products are projected to rise from 10.5% of value in 2025 to 29.0% by 2031. These products can receive better pricing, respond to health concerns, and reduce exposure to the new tax threshold. However, profitability depends on maintaining taste acceptance, optimizing sweetener costs, and avoiding excessive promotional support during consumer migration.

The most important constraint is the special consumption tax on beverages containing more than 5 grams of sugar per 100 milliliters. The rate begins at 8% in 2027 and increases to 10% from 2028. This changes the relative economics of regular and reformulated beverages and may affect shelf prices, pack sizes, promotion frequency, and channel margins. Producers also face packaging-recovery responsibilities, food-safety requirements, product self-declaration, labeling rules, and increasing scrutiny of marketing to younger consumers.

Vietnam ranks third within the selected peer group, behind Indonesia and Thailand and ahead of the Philippines and Malaysia on the report's carbonated-drinks scope. Its USD 1,880 Mn market in 2025 is smaller than Indonesia's estimated USD 3,100 Mn and Thailand's USD 2,250 Mn, but Vietnam's 4.6% forecast CAGR exceeds Thailand and Malaysia. Per-capita consumption remains below Thailand and Malaysia, providing additional headroom as incomes, urbanization, tourism, and retail availability expand.

The strongest long-term driver is the combination of population scale, income growth, urbanization, and outlet expansion. Vietnam had approximately 102 million residents in 2025, while urban residents represented roughly 38.83% of the population in 2024. This creates a growing base of consumers with access to convenience chains, restaurants, delivery platforms, entertainment venues, and cold beverages. Tourism provides an additional consumption layer, with international visitors returning above pre-pandemic levels during the market recovery.

Route-to-market execution is the clearest separator. Leading producers combine national bottling, high-frequency direct-store delivery, distributor management, refrigerator placement, foodservice contracts, modern-retail negotiation, and substantial consumer marketing. The two leading groups collectively represent more than 60% of the wider non-alcoholic beverage sector. Smaller competitors can defend regional or specialty positions, but national expansion requires capital for capacity, working inventory, coolers, sales teams, data systems, and trade investment. Product quality alone is insufficient without reliable cold availability and outlet-level execution.