Vietnam Online Grocery Market is sized at USD 2,620 Mn GMV in 2024 . This reflects B2C online grocery orders fulfilled through digital platforms, marketplace apps, quick-commerce operators, and retailer-owned e-commerce channels, while excluding prepared meal delivery and offline grocery sales. The market’s 2024 scale is commercially meaningful because it already supports several distinct monetization layers, including merchant commissions, ad slots, delivery fees, and higher-frequency replenishment. Structurally, the market is still urban-led, with Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi representing the bulk of formal demand and providing the route density needed to make online grocery operationally viable at scale.

The base-case outlook points to Vietnam Online Grocery Market reaching approximately USD 7,095.6 Mn by 2030 , implying a sustained 18.1% CAGR during 2025-2030 . Growth remains strong, but more disciplined than the earlier adoption phase. The forward curve assumes continued internet and smartphone penetration, wider payment formalization, and expanding chilled fulfillment in fresh categories, while also assuming that promotional intensity and pandemic-era abnormal demand do not repeat. By 2030, the market should be materially deeper across both Tier-1 and selected Tier-2 urban centers, with value growth still supported by order growth rather than pure price inflation.

The modeled historical CAGR for Vietnam Online Grocery Market was 32.2% between 2019 and 2024 , reflecting a rapid early-stage formalization cycle. Growth was strongest around the pandemic reset, then moderated as the market moved from forced trial into more habitual usage. That deceleration is not a weakness; it indicates the category is becoming more operationally rational. Historical growth was powered by rapid customer onboarding, marketplace traffic expansion, and increasing familiarity with app-led fulfillment. Going forward, the market is transitioning from customer acquisition-led growth to economics-led growth, with basket mix, delivery productivity, and repeat frequency becoming more important than pure user addition.

The next profit pool shift is likely to come from fresh protein, chilled grocery, and premium recurring baskets rather than dry-grocery volume alone. In the locked market spine, Meat, Seafood & Dairy is the fastest-growing segment at 22.5% CAGR through 2029 . That matters because chilled categories tend to support higher tickets, lower direct comparability with offline wet-market pricing, and stronger customer retention when service quality is reliable. As cold-chain investment improves product integrity and shrink control, platforms can capture a larger share of total household grocery spend instead of remaining a top-up or pantry-only channel.

The most important structural risk is the combination of low basket economics and operational friction, especially where COD, returns, and low-density delivery overlap. MOIT cited COD usage above 80% in e-commerce and average return rates of 15%-20% for such transactions. In online grocery, these frictions matter more than in higher-ticket discretionary categories because each failed order absorbs picking, dispatch, and courier cost against a relatively small basket. Regulatory tightening also raises the cost of weak processes. Operators that do not reduce payment friction and failed-drop rates may grow GMV while still weakening contribution margins.

Vietnam ranks in the upper-middle tier among relevant Southeast Asian peer markets. In this report’s selected peer set, Vietnam is positioned 3rd by market size , behind Indonesia and the Philippines, but ahead of Thailand and Malaysia. That ranking is credible because Vietnam combines a sizable digital user base with unusually high mobile connection intensity and improving payment account ownership. Its growth profile also remains stronger than more mature peers. Relative to market size, Vietnam’s structural upside is attractive because penetration headroom still exists in Tier-2 cities and in fresh grocery baskets that have not yet fully migrated online.