Vietnam Express and E-Commerce Logistics Market Size, Share & Forecast, By Service Type, Shipment Flow & End-Use Industry, 2026–2031

The Vietnam Express and E-Commerce Logistics Market was worth USD 3.18 billion in 2025. The estimate covers monetized express delivery, domestic and cross-border parcels, e-commerce fulfillment, warehousing, returns and related value-added services. It excludes general bulk freight and internal logistics movements without separately priced revenue. The result was triangulated against official postal revenue of VND 87 trillion, 4.20 billion postal items, company-level operator estimates and demand derived from Vietnam's USD 31 billion e-commerce economy.

The market is forecast to reach USD 6.52 billion by 2031, representing a 12.71% CAGR during 2026-2031. Parcel volume is projected to increase from 4.20 billion items in 2025 to 8.58 billion items by 2031. Value growth should increasingly come from fulfillment, returns, cross-border clearance and merchant technology rather than basic tariff expansion. The forecast assumes continued double-digit online-commerce growth, improving network utilization and no material regulatory restriction on marketplace or social-commerce activity.

Profit pools will shift from stand-alone parcel delivery toward fulfillment, inventory management, returns processing, customs coordination and integrated merchant solutions. Basic domestic B2C delivery remains the largest revenue stream, but intense marketplace bargaining and 760 licensed operators constrain margins. Services that increase revenue per order, reduce failed deliveries or embed operators into merchant workflows should command stronger economics. Platform-linked fulfillment and cross-border compliance will be especially relevant as online transaction value and direct-to-consumer trade expand.

The primary constraint is the combination of low parcel pricing, high national logistics costs and service-level expenditure. Industry profit in the first half of 2025 was approximately VND 950 billion despite postal revenue of VND 38.3 trillion, illustrating a narrow margin structure. Failed deliveries, cash-on-delivery handling, rural route economics and peak-period capacity add further cost. Marketplaces also concentrate shipment demand and can negotiate volume discounts that shift operational risk toward carriers.

Vietnam ranks third in the selected peer group, behind Indonesia and Thailand but ahead of Malaysia and the Philippines by modeled 2025 express and e-commerce logistics revenue. Vietnam's 12.71% forecast CAGR exceeds the modeled rates for Thailand and Malaysia, while remaining slightly below the Philippines. Its position is supported by USD 31 billion in e-commerce activity, 4.20 billion postal items and comparatively high parcel frequency per capita.

Expansion in online transaction value and purchasing frequency is the strongest demand driver. Vietnam's e-commerce economy reached approximately USD 31 billion in 2025, increasing by 25.5%, while more than 55% of the population participated in online shopping. Video commerce, social selling and mobile purchasing generate smaller, more frequent orders that require parcel-intensive logistics. Growth beyond Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City also increases the need for regional hubs and structured interprovincial line-haul.

Priority segments are integrated fulfillment, cross-border e-commerce logistics, domestic B2C parcel delivery and returns management. Basic delivery provides scale, but fulfillment and cross-border services create stronger customer retention and higher revenue per order. Ho Chi Minh City and the Southeast remain the largest operating cluster, followed by Hanoi and the Red River Delta. Northern border provinces offer strategic relevance for China-linked parcel flows, while the Mekong Delta and central cities provide longer-term network-density opportunities.