Middle East and Africa Steel Market Size, Share & Forecast, By Product Type, End-Use Industry & Geography, 2026-2031

The Middle East and Africa Steel Market was worth USD 74,880 million in 2025. The estimate represents finished-steel sales generated from approximately 104.0 Mt of regional apparent consumption at a blended selling price of USD 720 per tonne. Construction, infrastructure and energy projects accounted for the largest demand pool, while flat products and engineered tubular steel generated higher value per tonne. The market estimate includes domestically produced and imported finished steel consumed within the covered region.

The market is projected to reach USD 103,831 million by 2031, expanding at a forecast CAGR of 5.60% from the 2025 base. Finished-steel consumption is expected to increase to approximately 127.4 Mt, while the blended average selling price rises to USD 815 per tonne. Growth will be supported by African urban infrastructure, GCC industrial localization, energy projects and downstream manufacturing, although near-term Middle Eastern demand may remain exposed to geopolitical and logistics disruption.

Profit pools are expected to shift from undifferentiated commodity rebar and billet toward coated flat steel, engineered tubular products, certified heavy plate, precision-processed coil and lower-emission direct-reduced-iron products. These categories provide stronger specification barriers, service revenue and customer retention. The regional blended ASP is modeled to rise from USD 720 per tonne in 2025 to USD 815 per tonne in 2031, partly reflecting this higher-value mix rather than broad commodity inflation.

Global excess capacity is the largest structural risk because it suppresses traded-steel prices and reduces utilization at new regional assets. Excess capacity reached approximately 640 Mt in 2025 and is projected to reach 745 Mt by 2028. Chinese exports also reached 131 Mt in 2025, increasing import competition across open regional markets. Producers with high energy costs, limited product differentiation or weak logistics access are therefore most exposed to margin compression and delayed investment returns.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia offer the strongest combination of market scale and forecast growth among the selected country markets. Egypt is projected to expand at approximately 6.5% annually through 2031, while Saudi Arabia is expected to grow at 6.2%. Iran remains the largest selected country market, but its projected 3.8% CAGR is lower. The United Arab Emirates provides an additional downstream-processing opportunity because high finished-steel imports create addressable gaps in flat, coated and project-specific products.

Infrastructure and urban development are the primary demand drivers. Africa requires approximately USD 130-170 billion of infrastructure investment annually, while the number of people living in African cities is expected to approach 1.5 billion by 2050. Middle Eastern demand is additionally supported by transport, housing, energy and industrial-localization programs. These investment themes generate sustained requirements for rebar, sections, plate, pipe, coated sheet and fabricated structural systems across multiple project phases.

Carbon regulation will increasingly determine export access, financing costs and technology selection. The European carbon border mechanism entered its definitive regime on 1 January 2026 and includes iron and steel. This improves the strategic position of efficient direct-reduced-iron and electric-arc-furnace producers, particularly where renewable electricity and verified emissions data are available. However, producers must invest in measurement, reporting, verification, traceability and energy optimization before lower-emission claims can support price premiums or long-term European supply contracts.