India’s Coking Coal 2030: 135 MT Demand, 115 MT Imports, 90% Foreign Dependence - The Structural Gap Behind India’s Steel Ambition

India’s rapid steel capacity expansion targeting 300 million tonnes by 2030 is pushing the country into an era of structural coking-coal imbalance. With domestic reserves constrained by high ash content, underperforming washeries, and limited beneficiation capacity, India’s dependence on overseas coal continues to deepen. The Indian Steel Association forecast confirms that India’s coking-coal demand will rise from 87 MT in FY25 to nearly 135 MT by FY30, creating a widening supply gap that the domestic ecosystem cannot bridge in the near term. As a result, market dynamics are shifting sharply across imports, logistics, pricing, and long-term policy planning. 

In FY25, usable domestic metallurgical coal met barely 6% of India’s total (Blast Furnace–Basic Oxygen Furnace) BF-BOF requirement, leaving 94% to be sourced from overseas - highlighting one of the highest import dependencies among major global steel producers. 

India’s Steel Expansion Is Rapidly Escalating Coking-Coal Requirements 

To understand the demand surge, one must begin with the aggressive growth trajectory of India steel sector. 

• India’s coking-coal requirement rising to 135 - 140 MT by 2030, driven by new BF-BOF furnaces installed by JSW, Tata, SAIL, and other integrated players. 
• Domestic coking-coal output remains around 60 MT, but only 5 MT is sufficiently washed for metallurgical use - leaving a core structural deficit irrespective of mining expansions. 
• This imbalance is widening each year, as India’s steelmaking growth far outpaces improvements in mining productivity, coal quality, and beneficiation capacity. 

Import Dependence Remains Structural as 90% of PHCC Comes from Overseas 

Given India’s limited reserves of low-ash, metallurgical-grade coal, import dependence has effectively become the structural backbone of the country’s BF - BOF supply chain. As domestic quality constraints persist, the widening gap between demand and usable production continues to push steelmakers toward global markets. 

• India imported 81 MT of coking coal in FY25, a volume projected to exceed 115 MT by FY30, firmly positioning the country among the world’s largest importers of metallurgical coal. 
• Nearly 90% of all prime hard coking coal (PHCC) consumed in India is sourced internationally, amplifying the sector’s exposure to global market cycles - particularly as PHCC benchmarks fluctuated sharply between USD 230 and 430 per tonne in 2024. 
• Furthermore, diversification pressures are already reshaping procurement patterns. According to IEEFA, Australia’s share in India’s coking-coal imports declined by 11% in 2024, underscoring India’s gradual pivot toward multi-origin sourcing as steelmakers seek to reduce concentration risk. 

Price Instability and Freight Surges Are Reshaping Procurement Strategies 

India’s heavy import exposure naturally amplifies the impact of global volatility. 

• Australian benchmark prices have experienced sharp fluctuations driven by cyclones, mine disruptions, and market tightness - feeding directly into CFR India volatility. 
• Freight surges at Haldia, Paradip and Vizag - in some months rising 20–25% have materially increased the landed cost variability for Indian mills.  
• As a result, steelmakers are adjusting procurement strategies: shifting to mixed-grade blends, securing multi-origin contracts, and rebalancing spot vs. long-term commitments. 

Diversification Toward New Regions Is Redefining India’s Import Map 

As supply volatility and price swings persist, India is steadily broadening its coking-coal sourcing strategy beyond traditional suppliers, with logistics considerations playing an increasingly important role in procurement decisions. 

• Russia and Canada continue to strengthen their share, while India evaluates emerging supply corridors such as Mozambique and Mongolia to reduce concentration risk and enhance resilience across long-term contracts. These alternative origins help offset overreliance on Australia, where weather-linked disruptions frequently affect shipments. 
•  SAIL has initiated trial imports of Mongolian coking coal, marking the first step toward possible scale-up. However, Mongolian coal must move through a combined overland and seaborne route, resulting in a longer overall transit cycle takes approx. several weeks compared with shipments from Australia’s east coast terminals. 
• Mozambique’s coking-coal assets are also under review by Indian companies, supported by maritime routes from Nacala and Beira. These routes offer mid-distance shipping times (approx. 2 to 3 weeks), placing them between shorter-haul Australian shipments and longer-haul North American cargoes. This positions Mozambique as a strategically viable diversification option for India’s east-coast steel mill. 

Domestic Beneficiation Must Triple to Unlock India’s High-Ash Coal 

Even with import diversification, reducing import dependence requires domestic structural reform. 

• India’s coal washeries currently operate at 30–35% capacity utilization, far below global benchmarks, limiting the volume of usable low-ash coal available to steelmakers. 
• However, increasing washed-coal output from 5 MT to at least 15–18 MT, which would provide measurable substitution for imported PCI and lower-quality HCC.  Without technological upgrades and modern washeries, domestic coal will remain unsuitable for industrial blast-furnace operations.  

Mission Coking Coal 2025–30 Targets Higher Production and Greater Security 

Recognizing the structural deficit, the government is building interventions at scale. 

Mission Coking coal aims to raise domestic production to 66.47 MT, supported by new block auctions, mechanized operations, and accelerated Jharia redevelopment. 

Recent reforms include grade transparency mandates, fast-track environmental clearances, and integration of private sector washery operators. 

Additionally, India is considering overseas mine acquisitions to lock long-term supply security - an approach already used by Japan and China. 

Green-Steel Transition Will Reshape Demand After 2040, Not Before 

While the energy transition is real, its timing maintains short-term coal relevance. 

• BF-BOF continues to contribute >90% of India’s steel output, and will still account for 52–55% even in 2050 under EY’s transition scenario. 
• Hydrogen-DRI remains cost-prohibitive at USD 4–5/kg, keeping green-steel adoption slow until renewable capacity and hydrogen economics improve. • Over the next two decades, scrap-EAF growth and carbon-regulation tightening will gradually reduce coking-coal dependence - though not fast enough to alter India’s 2030 needs. 

Strategic Reforms Must Balance Import Security and Infrastructure Readiness 

The final challenge lies in building resilience across ports, rail, contracting, and storage. 

• India must expand mechanised unloading at major ports, strengthen last-mile connectivity, and establish strategic coking-coal stockpiles for disruption management. 
• Long-term supply contracts and indexed pricing mechanisms can shield steelmakers from sudden market spikes, stabilising furnace economics. 
• Policy momentum is strong: India is actively encouraging firms to acquire overseas coking-coal assets, signalling a shift from procurement optimisation to long-term resource security. 

KEN RESEARCH INSIGHT 

India’s coking-coal strategy is entering a decade defined by supply security rather than price competition. With the World Steel Association projecting finished steel demand to rise 6.8% in 2025, and the OECD estimating that over 70% of India’s upcoming steel capacity additions through 2030 will remain BF–BOF based, the country’s reliance on imported metallurgical coal will remain structurally elevated. 

At the same time, the IEA projects the global seaborne metallurgical-coal market to expand to approx. 345–350 MT by 2026, with India contributing nearly 30% of incremental import growth, underscoring its central role in future trade flows. Against this backdrop, resilience will depend on multi-origin sourcing, flexible index-linked contracts, and domestic investments in washery modernization and mechanized port handling. 

The companies that treat coking coal as a long-term strategic resource-supported by diversified supply corridors and infrastructure-backed risk management- will maintain the strongest competitive footing through 2030 and beyond.