Future of the Nigeria Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Future of the Nigeria Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022


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Executive Summary

Future of the Nigeria Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Summary

The Future of the Nigeria Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Nigeria defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following

The Nigeria defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Nigeria defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

Porter's Five Force analysis of the Nigeria defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Nigeria defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

The defense budget of Nigeria for the year 2017 is USD1.4 billion. For the historic period, 2013-2017, the defense budget of the country registered a CAGR of -11.09%. The defense budget is currently being driven by efforts to modernize the army and threats from terrorist organizations.

During the historic period, the Nigeria MoD allocated an average of 19.5% of the total defense budget to capital expenditure, while an average of 80.5% was reserved for revenue expenditure. Over the forecast period, allocation towards capital expenditure is expected to increase at an average of 26.9%.

The MoD is expected to invest in multirole aircraft, infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) and attack helicopters.

Reasons to buy

This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Nigeria defense industry market trends for the coming five years

The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

A deep qualitative analysis of the Nigeria defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts



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Table of Contents

1. Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?

1.2. Definitions

1.3. Summary Methodology

1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Current Market Scenario

3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception

3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy

3.1.3. Military Fleet Size

3.1.4. Procurement Programs

3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects

3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

3.2.1. Nigerian defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.72% during the forecast period

3.2.2. Insurgency, piracy, oil smuggling, and peacekeeping operations are expected to drive defense expenditure

3.2.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to average 0.3% over the forecast period

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase at an average of 26.9% over the forecast period

3.3.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.84% over the forecast period

3.3.3. Defense budget allocation towards the army accounts for the majority out of the armed forces

3.3.4. Army expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 7.89% over the forecast period

3.3.5. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast

3.4.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase during the forecast period

3.4.2. The threat from Boko Haram, drug trafficking, cybercrime, and money laundering are expected to drive the homeland security budget

3.4.3. Nigeria falls under the worst affected category by terrorist attacks

3.4.4. Nigeria faces a very high level of threat from foreign and domestic terrorist organizations

3.4.5. Nigeria has a Terrorism Index Score of 9.3

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets

3.5.1. The country's defense budget is expected to increase during the forecast period

3.5.2. Nigerian military expenditure is limited compared to the countries with the highest global defense expenditure

3.5.3. The country allocates a lower percentage of GDP to defense than other African counties

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators

3.6.1. Multirole Aircraft

3.6.2. Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV)

3.6.3. Attack Helicopters

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Market Dynamics

4.1.1. Limited capability of the domestic defense market drives imports

4.1.2. Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period

4.1.3. China, the US, and Russia account for the majority of the country's defense imports

4.1.4. Aircraft and ships are the highest imported military hardware

4.2. Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1. Nigeria does not export arms due to its underdeveloped domestic arms industry

5. Industry Dynamics

5.1. Five Forces Analysis

5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low to Medium

5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: Medium to High

5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Medium

5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low

5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Low

6. Market Entry Strategy

6.1. Market Regulation

6.1.1. Nigeria does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country

6.1.2. FDI in the defense sector is prohibited by the Nigerian government

6.2. Market Entry Route

6.2.1. Budgeting Process

6.2.2. Defense procurement process

6.2.3. Direct selling is the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs

6.3. Key Challenges

6.3.1. Corruption acts as an obstacle for market entry

6.3.2. Small defense budget discourages major suppliers

6.3.3. Unorganized, mismanaged industry jeopardizes the development of the domestic industry

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview

7.2. Key Domestic Companies

7.2.1. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Overview

7.2.2. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Products and Services

7.2.3. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent announcements and Strategic Initiatives

7.2.4. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances

7.2.5. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards

7.2.6. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Overview

7.2.7. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Products and Services

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1. Economic Performance

8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita

8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current USD

8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services

8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services

8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (USD Bn)

8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per USD

8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USD Bn)

8.1.8. Market capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP)

8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP (LCU)

8.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP

8.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP

8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP

8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP

8.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment

8.1.15. Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP

8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn)

9. Appendix

9.1. About SDI

9.2. Disclaimer

List of Figures

Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Billion), 2013-2022

Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in USD Billion), 2013-2022

Figure 3: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022

Figure 4: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022

Figure 5: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN Billion),2013-2022

Figure 6: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (USD billion), 2013-2022

Figure 7: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2013-2022

Figure 8: Nigerian Defense Budget in NGN Billion-Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2013-2022

Figure 9: Nigerian Defense Budget in USD Billion-Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2013-2022

Figure 10: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2013-2022

Figure 11: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (NGN billion), 2013-2022

Figure 12: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (USD billion), 2013-2022

Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017

Figure 14: Terrorism Index, 2017

Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020

Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (USD Billion), 2017 and 2022

Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017

Figure 18: Multirole Aircraft Market Size (USD Million), 2016-2027

Figure 19: Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) Helicopters Market Size (USD Million), 2017-2026

Figure 20: Attack Helicopters Market Size (USD Million), 2017-2027

Figure 21: Nigerian Defense Import Trend, 2012-2016 (USD Million)

Figure 22: Nigerian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016

Figure 23: Nigerian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016

Figure 24: Industry Dynamics-Porter's Five Forces Analysis

Figure 25: Nigeria's GDP per Capita (USD), 2015-2025

Figure 26: Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (current USD Billion), 2015-2025

Figure 27: Nigeria's Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014

Figure 28: Nigeria's Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014

Figure 29: Nigeria's Gross National Disposable Income (USD Bn), 2005-2013

Figure 30: Nigeria's LCU per USD, 2015-2024

Figure 31: Nigeria's Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USD Bn), 2005-2012

Figure 32: Nigeria's Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP), 2005-2012

Figure 33: Nigerian Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012

Figure 34: Nigeria's Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 35: Nigeria's Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 36: Nigeria's Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 37: Nigeria's Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2002-2012

Figure 38: Nigeria's Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current USD Billion), 2005-2012

Figure 39: Nigeria's Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012

Figure 40: Nigeria's Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn) 2005-2014

List of Tables

Table 1: Nigeria Ground Forces Strength

Table 2: Nigeria Air Force Strength

Table 3: Nigeria Navy Strength

Table 4: Nigeria-Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs

Table 5: Nigeria-Future Procurement Programs

Table 6: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN billion & USD billion), 2013-2022

Table 7: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022

Table 8: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022

Table 9: Nigerian Defense Capital Expenditure (NGN Billion & USD Billion), 2013-2022

Table 10: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2013-2022

Table 11: Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2013-2022

Table 12: Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2013-2022

Table 13: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2013-2022

Table 14: Nigerian Homeland Security Expenditure (NGN Billion & USD billion), 2013-2022

Table 15: Terrorism Index, 2016

Table 16: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022

Table 17: Nigeria Budget Formation Timetable

Table 18: Competitive Landscape of the Nigeria Defense Industry

Table 19: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria-Main Products

Table 20: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances

Table 21: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards

Table 22: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria-Main Products

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