Botswana: Competition to Stiffen in the Mobile Market as Operators Focus on Affordable Data Bundles and VAS to Drive Revenue

Botswana: Competition to Stiffen in the Mobile Market as Operators Focus on Affordable Data Bundles and VAS to Drive Revenue


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Executive Summary

Botswana: Competition to Stiffen in the Mobile Market as Operators Focus on Affordable Data Bundles and VAS to Drive Revenue

Summary

"Botswana: Competition to Stiffen in the Mobile Market as Operators Focus on Affordable Data Bundles and VAS to Drive Revenue", a new Country Intelligence Report by GlobalData, provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Botswana today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2021. Published annually, the report provides detailed analysis of the near-term opportunities, competitive dynamics and evolution of demand by service type and technology/platform across the fixed telephony, broadband and mobile sectors, as well as a review of key regulatory trends.

The telecom services revenue in Botswana will grow at a sluggish CAGR of 0.02% (3.3% in local currency terms) during 2016-2021, due to currency depreciation and the impact of mobile and fixed voice revenue decline. Planned expansion of 3G/4G services and the subsequent rise in consumption of high-bandwidth content over mobile devices will drive mobile data revenue in the coming years. Along with mobile data, fixed Internet services will be a key growth driver for the market, expanding at a CAGR of 7.5% over 2016-2021.

Over the next five years, operators should continue to focus on network investments and upgrades and tap into opportunities arising from growth in the mobile data segment. Expansion of 3G/4G networks and supporting the government's national broadband strategy will also present significant opportunities for both vendors and investors.

The Country Intelligence Report provides in-depth analysis of the following

Regional context: telecom market size and trends in Botswana compared with other countries in the region.

Economic, demographic and political context in Botswana.

The regulatory environment and trends: a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.

A demand profile: analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and mobile data markets.

Service evolution: a look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2016 to 2021.

The competitive landscape: an examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.

In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice and mobile data services: a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.

Main opportunities: this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Botswana's telecommunications market.

Scope

The overall telecom services revenue in Botswana will grow at a sluggish CAGR of 0.02% (3.3% in local currency terms) during 2016-2021. The fixed/mobile revenue split will be dominated by the mobile segment through the 2016-2021 period and will account for 84.9% of overall service revenue by 2021.

Mobile data revenue will continue to grow at a CAGR of 6.8% during 2016-2021, driven by the rise in 3G/4G and smartphone adoption and the increase in mobile data usage.

2G continues to be the most used technology, accounting for 55.4% of total mobile subscriptions in 2016 but is losing share to 3G and 4G technologies, which will altogether represent 68.7% of the subscriptions by 2021. Being in its early stages of adoption, 4G is expected to record the fastest CAGR , at 71.5%, over the 2016-2021 period, to reach 433,000 subscriptions by 2021.

Mascom and BTC (the merged brand for BTCL and beMobile) accounted for 71.7% of total service revenue in 2016. Mascom will continue to maintain its leadership position in the telecom market through 2021. Both operators will seek to improve coverage and quality of their wireless networks in order to strengthen their position in the marketplace.

Reasons to buy

This Country Intelligence Report offers a thorough, forward-looking analysis of Botswana's telecommunications market, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format to help executives build proactive and profitable growth strategies.

Accompanying GlobalData's Forecast products, the report examines the assumptions and drivers behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Botswana's mobile communications, fixed telephony/VoIP and broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares.

With more than 20 charts and tables, the report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality.

The report provides an easily digestible market assessment for decision-makers built around in-depth information gathered from local market players, which enables executives to quickly get up to speed with the current and emerging trends in Botswana's telecommunications market.

The broad perspective of the report coupled with comprehensive, actionable detail will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Botswana.



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Table of Contents

Table of contents 3

Executive summary 4

Market and competitor overview

Regional context 6

Economic, demographic and political context 7

Regulatory environment 8

Demand profile 13

Service evolution 15

Competitive landscape 16

Major market players 17

Segment analysis

Mobile services 21

Fixed services 25

Identifying opportunities

Opportunities in the market 28

About the authors 29

Country Intelligence Report coverage 30

List of Figures

Botswana telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2016E 6

Country indicators 7

Regulatory structure and policy 8

Major telecommunications policy issues 9

Botswana communications market revenue, 2014-2021, US$ 13

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021,US$ 13

Segment revenues 2014-2021 14

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2016, 2021 15

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2016, 2021 15

Service revenue by operator, 2016 16

Key telecom market players 16

Major telecommunications market players 17

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2014-2021 21

Key mobile market indicators, 2016 21

Mobile services revenue mix, 2016, 2021 22

Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2014-2021 22

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2014-2021 23

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2014-2021 24

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2014-2021 25

Key fixed market indicators, 2016 25

Fixed voice and Internet revenue, 2014-2021 26

Opportunities in the Botswana telecommunications market 27

List of Tables

Botswana telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2016E 6

Country indicators 7

Regulatory structure and policy 8

Major telecommunications policy issues 9

Botswana communications market revenue, 2014-2021, US$ 13

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021,US$ 13

Segment revenues 2014-2021 14

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2016, 2021 15

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2016, 2021 15

Service revenue by operator, 2016 16

Key telecom market players 16

Major telecommunications market players 17

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2014-2021 21

Key mobile market indicators, 2016 21

Mobile services revenue mix, 2016, 2021 22

Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2014-2021 22

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2014-2021 23

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2014-2021 24

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2014-2021 25

Key fixed market indicators, 2016 25

Fixed voice and Internet revenue, 2014-2021 26

Opportunities in the Botswana telecommunications market 27

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Mascom, Orange Botswana, BTC, BTCL, BeMobile, Huawei, Allround, Telepin, BoFiNet, BOCRA Botswana, Botswana Communications regulatory Autority

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