Future of the Iraqi Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Iraqi Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023


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Executive Summary

Future of the Iraqi Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

"Future of the Iraqi Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023", published by GlobalData, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

This report offers detailed analysis of the Iraqi defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following-

- The defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Iraqi defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porter's Five Force analysis of the Iraqi defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Iraqi defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Scope

- Iraqi military expenditure values USD 6.4 billion in 2018 and registered a CAGR of -5.76% during 2014-2018.

- The decline in the defense budget during the historic period is primarily due to the country's heavy reliance on oil and gas revenues to fund its expansive defense modernization programs.

- Therefore, the severe erosion of global oil and gas prices during 2016-2017 adversely impacted the country's defense spending capability and forced it to cut back on its defense spending.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Iraqi defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the Iraqi defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts.



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Table of Contents

1. Introduction 8

1.1. What is this Report About? 8

1.2. Definitions 8

1.3. Summary Methodology 11

1.4. About GlobalData 13

2. Executive Summary 14

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 16

3.1. Current Market Scenario 17

3.1.1. Primary threat perception 17

3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 18

3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 20

3.1.4. Procurement Programs 23

3.1.5. Top Procurement Programs by Value (USD Million) 2018-2023 24

3.1.6. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 25

3.1.7. Political and Strategic Alliances 26

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 27

3.2.1. Iraqi annual defense expenditure to reach USD 8.7 billion by 2023 27

3.2.2. US Military and Security Aid 29

3.2.3. Territorial disputes and the war against terrorism are expected to drive defense expenditure 31

3.2.4. Iraq's defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to decrease over 2019-2023 32

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 34

3.3.1. Capital expenditure share to average 23.6% over the forecast period 34

3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period 36

3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 38

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 39

3.4.1. Allocation for the police forms the major component of the country's homeland security expenditure 39

3.4.2. Fighting terrorism, controlling sectarian violence, and oil infrastructure protection will be the key factors driving homeland security 41

3.4.3. Iraq is considered to be the country worst affected by terrorism 42

3.4.4. Iraq is the most terror prone country in the world 43

3.4.5. Iraq has a terrorism index score of 10.0 45

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 46

3.5.1. Iraqi defense expenditure expected to record a CAGR of 5.56% over 2019-2023 46

3.5.2. Iraqi defense expenditure is low compared to other major defense spenders 48

3.5.3. Iraq's defense expenditure is anticipated to reach 3.0% of GDP in 2023 49

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 50

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million)-Projections Over 2018-2023 50

3.6.2. Military Infrastructure and Logistics-Infrastructure Construction 51

3.6.3. Land-based C4ISR 52

3.6.4. Military Infrastructure and Logistics-Facilities Management 53

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 54

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 55

4.1.1. Defense imports projected to increase over the forecast period 55

4.1.2. The US and Russia were the leading suppliers of arms during 2013-2017 56

4.1.3. Aircraft and armored vehicles accounted for the majority of defense imports between 2013 and 2017 57

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 58

4.2.1. Iraq's defense export market is negligible 58

5. Industry Dynamics 59

5.1. Five Forces Analysis 59

5.1.1. Bargaining Power of the Supplier: Medium 60

5.1.2. Bargaining Power of the Buyer: Medium 60

5.1.3. Barriers to Entry: Low 60

5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Medium to High 60

5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Medium to High 60

6. Market Entry Strategy 61

6.1. Market Regulation 61

6.1.1. The Iraqi government allows FDI in the defense industry 61

6.1.2. Iraq has not disclosed any offset obligations 61

6.2. Market Entry Route 62

6.2.1. Budgeting Process 62

6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 62

6.2.3. Government to government deals are an attractive entry route to the country's defense market 62

6.2.4. Establishment of representative office obtains eligibility for participating in procurement tenders 62

6.3. Key Challenges 64

6.3.1. Corruption acts as an obstacle for market entry 64

6.3.2. Lack of skilled labor 64

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 65

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 65

7.1.1. Top Defense Suppliers in Iraqi Defense Industry by Value (USD Million), 2018-2023 65

7.1.2. Iraqi defense sector is dominated by foreign competitors 66

7.2. Key Foreign Companies 67

7.2.1. General Dynamics Corporation: Overview 67

7.2.2. General Dynamics Corporation: Products 67

7.2.3. General Dynamics Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 69

7.2.4. General Dynamics Corporation: Alliances 69

7.2.5. General Dynamics Corporation: Recent Contract Wins 69

7.2.6. Lockheed Martin: Overview 71

7.2.7. Lockheed Martin: Products 71

7.2.8. Lockheed Martin: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 71

7.2.9. Lockheed Martin: Alliances 72

7.2.10. Lockheed Martin: Recent Contract Wins 72

7.2.11. BAE Systems Plc: Overview 74

7.2.12. BAE Systems Plc: Products and Services 74

7.2.13. BAE Systems Plc: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 75

7.2.14. BAE Systems Plc: Alliances 75

7.2.15. BAE Systems Plc: Recent Contract Wins 75

7.2.16. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc: Overview 77

7.2.17. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc: Products and Services 77

7.2.18. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 77

7.2.19. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc: Alliances 78

7.2.20. Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc: Recent Contract Wins 78

7.2.21. Raytheon: Overview 80

7.2.22. Raytheon: Products 80

7.2.23. Raytheon: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 80

7.2.24. Raytheon: Alliances 81

7.2.25. Raytheon: Recent Contract Wins 82

7.2.26. Raytheon: Financial Analysis 83

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 85

8.1. Economic Performance 85

8.1.1. GDP Per Capita 85

8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices 86

8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Trillion) 87

8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Trillion) 88

8.1.5. Local Currency Unit per USD 89

8.1.6. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 90

8.1.7. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 91

8.1.8. Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP 92

8.1.9. Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP 93

8.1.10. Foreign Direct Investment 94

8.1.11. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 95

8.1.12. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 96

9. Appendix 97

9.1. About GlobalData 97

9.2. Disclaimer 97

List of Figures

Figure 1: Iraq-Defense Expenditure (IQD Trillion), 2014-2023 28

Figure 2: Iraq-Defense Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 28

Figure 3: Iraq-US Military and Security Aid (USD Million), 2014-2018 29

Figure 4: Iraq-Defense Expenditure Including US Aid (USD Billion), 2014-2018 30

Figure 5: Iraq-Defense Budget Excluding US Aid (USD Billion) vs Defense Budget Including US Aid (USD Billion), 2014-2018 30

Figure 6: Iraq-GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 33

Figure 7: Iraq-Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 35

Figure 8: Iraq-Defense Capital Expenditure (IQD Trillion), 2014-2023 37

Figure 9: Iraq-Defense Capital Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 37

Figure 10: Iraq-Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 38

Figure 11: Iraq-Homeland Security Budget (IQD Trillion), 2014-2023 40

Figure 12: Iraq-Homeland Security Budget (USD Billion), 2014-2023 40

Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 42

Figure 14: Terrorism Index, 2018 45

Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 47

Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (USD Billion), 2018 and 2023 48

Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 49

Figure 18: Military Infrastructure and Logistics-Infrastructure Construction Market Size (USD Million), 2018-2023 51

Figure 19: C4ISR-Land-based Market Size (USD Million), 2018-2023 52

Figure 20: Military Infrastructure and Logistics-Facilities Management Market Size (USD Million), 2018-2023 53

Figure 21: Top Iraq Defense Procurements in Terms of Supplier Relationships 54

Figure 22: Iraq-Defense Import Trend (USD Million), 2013-2017 (TIV Values) 55

Figure 23: Iraq-Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 56

Figure 24: Iraq-Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 57

Figure 25: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis 59

Figure 26: Raytheon-Revenue Trend Analysis (USD Billion), 2013-2017 83

Figure 27: Raytheon-Operating Profit Trend Analysis (USD Billion), 2013-2017 84

Figure 28: Raytheon-Net Profit Trend Analysis (USD Billion), 2013-2017 84

Figure 29: Iraq-GDP Per Capita (USD ), 2015-2025 85

Figure 30: Iraq-GDP, Current Prices (USD Billion), 2015-2025 86

Figure 31: Iraq-Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Trillion), 2005-2014 87

Figure 32: Iraq-Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Trillion), 2005-2014 88

Figure 33: Iraq-Local Currency per USD Exchange Rate, 2015-2024 89

Figure 34: Iraq-Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 90

Figure 35: Iraq-Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 91

Figure 36: Iraq-Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 92

Figure 37: Iraq-Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 93

Figure 38: Iraq-Foreign Direct Investment (USD Billion), 2005-2012 94

Figure 39: Iraq-Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 95

Figure 40: Iraq-Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Trillion), 2005-2014 96

List of Tables

Table 1: Iraq-Land Forces Strength, 2018 20

Table 2: Iraq-Navy Strength, 2018 21

Table 3: Iraq-Air Force Strength, 2018 21

Table 4: Iraq-Ongoing Procurement Programs, 2018 23

Table 5: Iraq-Future Procurement Programs, 2018 23

Table 6: Iraq-Defense Procurement Programs by Value (USD Million), 2018-2023 24

Table 7: Iraq-Defense Expenditure (IQD Trillion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 27

Table 8: Iraq-Defense Expenditure Including US Aid, 2014-2018 29

Table 9: Iraq-GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 32

Table 10: Iraq-Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 34

Table 11: Iraq-Defense Capital Expenditure (IQD Trillion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 36

Table 12: Iraq-Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 38

Table 13: Iraq-Homeland Security Expenditure (IQD Trillion / USD Billion), 2014-2023 39

Table 14: Terrorism Index, 2018 43

Table 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 46

Table 16: Top Iraqi-Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million), 2018-2023 50

Table 17: Iraq's Budget Process 62

Table 18: Top Defense Suppliers in Iraqi Defense Industry-By Value (USD Million), 2018-2023 65

Table 19: Competitive Landscape of the Iraqi Defense Industry 66

Table 20: General Dynamics Corporation-Products 67

Table 21: General Dynamics Corporation-Alliances 69

Table 22: General Dynamics Corporation-Recent Contract Wins 69

Table 23: Lockheed Martin-Products 71

Table 24: Lockheed Martin-Alliances 72

Table 25: Lockheed Martin-Recent Contract Wins 72

Table 26: BAE Systems Plc-Products and Services 74

Table 27: BAE Systems Plc-Alliances 75

Table 28: BAE Systems Plc-Recent Contract Wins 75

Table 29: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc-Products and Services 77

Table 30: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc-Alliances 78

Table 31: Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc-Recent Contract Wins 78

Table 32: Raytheon-Products 80

Table 33: Raytheon-Alliances 81

Table 34: Raytheon-Recent Contract Wins 82

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