Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023


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Executive Summary

Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

The Future of Kazakh Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of Kazakh defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following-

- Kazakh defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of Kazakhstan defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of Kazakh defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

- As one of the emerging powers in Asia, and one of the largest and best-performing economies in Central Asia, Kazakhstan offers strong potential for growth compared to its neighbors.

- While the country invested USD9 billion cumulatively over the period 2014-2018, the defense budget is expected to increase to USD17.1 billion cumulatively over the forecast period.

- During the historic period, Kazakhstan's defense budget allocation towards capital expenditure increased from 30.4% in 2014 to 34.9% in 2018, as the country entered into a number of procurement deals during 2014-2018. With the country aiming to overhaul its military capabilities, it is likely to implement more defense equipment procurement contracts.

- The country is expected to procure military equipment to boost its naval strength and maritime security in order to bolster its strength in the Caspian Sea and is also likely to invest in Multi-Mission and Maritime Helicopter, multirole aircraft, airborne C4ISR, airborne EO/IR systems, and transport aircraft.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of Kazakh defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of Kazakh defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts



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1. Introduction 7

1.1. What is this Report About? 7

1.2. Definitions 7

1.3. Summary Methodology 9

1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 10

2. Executive Summary 11

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 13

3.1. Current Market Scenario 14

3.1.1. Military fleet size 14

3.1.2. Procurement Programs 16

3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges 17

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 19

3.2.1. Kazakh annual defense expenditure to reach USD4.6 billion by 2023 19

3.2.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and counter-terrorism to drive Kazakhstan's defense expenditure 21

3.2.3. The country's defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 1.5% over the forecast period 23

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 25

3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase considerably over the forecast period 25

3.3.2. Capital expenditure budget is expected to increase during the forecast period 27

3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period 29

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 30

3.4.1. Homeland security budget is projected to increase at a CAGR of 7.79% during the forecast period 30

3.4.2. Human trafficking, drug smuggling, and cybercrime form the major components of homeland security expenditure 32

3.4.3. Kazakhstan is at some risk from external and internal threats 34

3.4.4. Kazakhstan faces moderate threats from terrorist organizations 35

3.4.5. Kazakhstan has a terrorism index score of 3.0 37

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 38

3.5.1. Kazakh defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 8.76% over the forecast period 38

3.5.2. Kazakhstan's military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure 40

3.5.3. Kazakhstan allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense 41

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 42

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million)-Projections over period 2018-2023 42

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 43

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 44

4.1.1. The current need to modernize the armed forces will drive defense imports 44

4.1.2. Russia was the leading supplier of arms to Kazakhstan during the historic period; a trend that is expected to continue during the forecast period 45

4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2010-2014 46

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 47

4.2.1. Kazakhstan does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry 47

5. Industry Dynamics 48

5.1. Market Regulation 48

5.1.1. Kazakhstan does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country 48

5.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in defense sector regulations are not disclosed by the government 48

5.2. Market Entry Route 49

5.2.1. Budgeting process 49

5.2.2. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs 50

5.2.3. Joint venture and license manufacturing agreements provide an attractive market entry route 50

5.3. Key Challenges 51

5.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency create roadblock for foreign companies 51

5.3.2. Domination of Russian companies poses a challenge to other foreign firms 51

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 52

6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 52

6.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Kazakhstan 52

7. Business Environment and Country Risk 53

7.1. Economic Performance 53

7.1.1. GDP Per Capita 53

7.1.2. GDP, Current Prices 54

7.1.3. Exports of goods and services (LCU Billion) 55

7.1.4. Imports of goods and services (LCU Billion) 56

7.1.5. Gross National disposable income (USD Billion) 57

7.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US Dollars 58

7.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Billion) 59

7.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP) 60

7.1.9. Goods exports as a % of GDP 61

7.1.10. Goods imports as a % of GDP 62

7.1.11. Services imports as a % of GDP 63

7.1.12. Service exports as a % of GDP 64

7.1.13. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current USD Billion) 65

7.1.14. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP 66

7.1.15. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 67

8. Appendix 68

8.1. About SDI 68

8.2. Disclaimer 68

Figure 1: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT Billion), 2014-2023 20

Figure 2: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 20

Figure 3: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2023 24

Figure 4: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 26

Figure 5: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (KZT Billion),2014-2023 28

Figure 6: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (USD billion), 2014-2023 28

Figure 7: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2014-2023 29

Figure 8: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT Billion), 2014-2023 31

Figure 9: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (USD Billion), 2014-2023 31

Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 34

Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 37

Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 39

Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (USD Billion), 2018 and 2023 40

Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 41

Figure 15: Kazakh Defense Import Trend(USD million), 2013-2017 (TIV values) 44

Figure 16: Kazakh Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 45

Figure 17: Kazakh Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 46

Figure 18: Kazakh GDP Per Capita (USD), 2015-2025 53

Figure 19: Kazakh GDP, Current Prices (USD Billion), 2015-2025 54

Figure 20: Kazakh Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 55

Figure 21: Kazakh Imports of goods and services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 56

Figure 22: Kazakh Gross National Disposable Income (USD Billion), 2005-2012 57

Figure 23: Local Currency per USD, 2015-2024 58

Figure 24: Kazakh Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Billion), 2005-2012 59

Figure 25: Kazakh Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 60

Figure 26: Kazakh Goods exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 61

Figure 27: Kazakh Goods imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 62

Figure 28: Kazakh Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 63

Figure 29: Kazakh Service Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 64

Figure 30: Kazakh Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current USD Billion), 2005-2013 65

Figure 31: Kazakh Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2005-2013 66

Figure 32: Kazakh Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Billion), 2005-2014 67

Table 1: The Kazakhstan Ground Forces Strength 14

Table 2: Kazakhstan Air Force Strength 14

Table 3: Kazakhstan Navy Strength 15

Table 4: Kazakh-Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs (USD Million) 16

Table 5: The Kazakh-Future Procurement Programs 16

Table 6: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT Billion and USD Billion), 2014-2023 19

Table 7: Kazakh GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (%), 2014-2023 23

Table 8: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 25

Table 9: Kazakh Defense Capital Expenditure (KZT Billion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 27

Table 10: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2014-2023 29

Table 11: Kazakh Homeland Security Expenditure (KZT Billion and USD Billion), 2014-2023 30

Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2018 35

Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 38

Table 14: Top Kazakh-Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million), 2018-2023 42

Table 15: Kazakh Budget Formation Timetable 49

Table 16: Competitive Landscape of the Kazakh Defense Industry 52

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