Future of the UK Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the UK Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023


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Executive Summary

Future of the UK Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

"Future of the UK Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023", published by GlobalData, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

This report offers detailed analysis of the UK defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following-

- The UK defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the UK defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities:list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the UK defense industry.

Scope

- The country is ranked seventh globally in terms of military expenditure but has been facing constant budget cuts during the historic period in accordance with the nation's aim of reducing overall expenditure.

- UK defense expenditure registered a CAGR of -3.67%, declining from USD 59.3 billion in 2014 to USD 51.1 billion in 2018.

- It is expected that the country will increase its defense budget to USD 59.3 billion in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 3.39% over the forecast period.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the UK defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers . This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the UK defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends , and latest industry contracts.



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Table of Contents

1. Introduction 7

1.1. What is this Report About? 7

1.2. Definitions 7

1.3. Summary Methodology 9

1.4. About GlobalData 10

2. Executive Summary 11

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 13

3.1. Current Market Scenario 14

3.1.1. Military Fleet Size 14

3.1.2. Procurement Programs 19

3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges 21

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 23

3.2.1. The UK's defense budget (inclusive of Foreign economic aid, R&D Defense and Defense Network-enabled Capability [NEC]) is anticipated to increase at a CAGR of 4.33% 23

3.2.2. The UK's expenditure on defense functions (exclusive of foreign economic aid, R&D defense and defense NEC) is anticipated to increase at a CAGR of 3.39% over the forecast period 25

3.2.3. Counter-terrorism activities, procurements, and peacekeeping operations are the primary factors driving defense expenditure 27

3.2.4. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to decrease over the forecast period 28

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 30

3.3.1. More than 90% of the UK's defense budget is allocated for defense capabilities 30

3.3.2. The allocations for peacekeeping operations and foreign military aid are anticipated to cumulatively value USD 2.4 billion and USD 2.8 billion respectively over the forecast period 32

3.3.3. Expenditure on defense capability is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.32% over the forecast period 34

3.3.4. The allocation towards capital expenditure will remain constant 36

3.3.5. Capital expenditure is anticipated to record CAGR of 5.19% over the forecast period 38

3.3.6. Per capita defense expenditure to increase over the forecast period 40

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 41

3.4.1. The Homeland Security market in UK is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.73% over the forecast period 41

3.4.2. Border security and cyber-security will be the key drivers for homeland security 43

3.4.3. The UK is 'highly affected' by terrorist activities 44

3.4.4. The UK faces a high risk of terrorist attack 45

3.4.5. The UK faces a substantial threat from terrorist organizations 47

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 48

3.5.1. The UK ranks among major Global Defense Markets 48

3.5.2. The UK is expected to be among the top 10 defense spending countries in the world 50

3.5.3. The UK allocates a significant percentage of GDP towards defense 51

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 52

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (USD Million)-Projections over period 2018-2023 52

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 53

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 54

4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to remain consistent with the historic trends 54

4.1.2. The US is the leading arms exporter to UK, a trend expected to continue in the coming years 55

4.1.3. Aircraft, Missiles, and Engines account for more than three-quarters of UK arms imports 56

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 57

4.2.1. UK Defense Exports are anticipated to increase over the historic period 57

4.2.2. Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Indonesia are the main buyers of UK defense exports 58

4.2.3. Aircraft make up the majority of the UK's defense exports 59

5. Industry Dynamics 60

6. Market Entry Strategy 60

6.1. Market Regulation 60

6.1.1. Offset policy discarded in order to maintain competitiveness of domestic suppliers 60

6.1.2. The UK permits 100% FDI in its defense industry 60

6.1.3. Government initiatives to boost the defense industry 61

6.2. Market Entry Route 61

6.2.1. Budgeting Process 61

6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 62

6.2.3. Joint weapons development programs are a viable market entry opportunity 63

6.2.4. Joint ventures open up new market entry strategy choices 64

6.2.5. Forming subsidiaries in the UK and the acquisition of domestic companies provide good market entry opportunities 64

6.2.6. Procurement Policy and Process 64

7. Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights 65

7.1. Competitive landscape Overview 65

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 67

8.1. Economic Performance 67

8.1.1. Gross Domestic Product Per Capita 67

8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product at Current Price USD 68

8.1.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices 69

8.1.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices 70

8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income, current prices 71

8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per USD , Period Average 72

8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USD Billion) 73

8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP) 74

8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit, as a Percentage of GDP (LCU) 75

8.1.10. Goods Exports as % of GDP 76

8.1.11. Goods Imports as % of GDP 77

8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP 78

8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP 79

8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investment, BoP, Current Values in USD Billion 80

8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a % of GDP 81

8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 82

9. Appendix 83

9.1. About GlobalData 83

9.2. Disclaimer 83

List of Figures

Figure 1: UK Defense Budget (GBP Billion), 2014-2023 24

Figure 2: UK Defense Budget (USD Billion), 2014-2023 24

Figure 3: UK Defense Expenditure (GBP Billion), 2014-2023 26

Figure 4: UK Defense Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 26

Figure 5: UK GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 29

Figure 6:UK Defense Expenditure Allocations (%), 2014-2023 31

Figure 7: UK Peacekeeping Services Budget (USD Billion), 2014-2023 33

Figure 8: UK Foreign Military Aid Budget (USD Billion), 2014-2023 33

Figure 9: UK Defense Capability Budget (GBP Billion), 2014-2023 35

Figure 10: UK Defense Capability Budget (USD Billion), 2014-2023 35

Figure 11: UK Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 37

Figure 12: Capital Expenditure (GBP Billion), 2014-2023 39

Figure 13: Capital Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 39

Figure 14: UK-Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 40

Figure 15: UK Homeland Security Expenditure (GBP Billion), 2014-2023 42

Figure 16: UK Homeland Security Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 42

Figure 17: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 44

Figure 18: Terrorism Index, 2018 47

Figure 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 49

Figure 20: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (USD Billion), 2018 and 2023 50

Figure 21: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017 51

Figure 22: UK Defense Imports 2013-2017 54

Figure 23: UK Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 55

Figure 24: UK Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 56

Figure 25: UK Defense Exports 2013-2017 57

Figure 26: The UK's Defense Exports by Country (%), 2013-2017 58

Figure 27: UK Defense Exports by Category (%), 2013-2017 59

Figure 28: UK GDP Per Capita, 2015-2025 67

Figure 29: UK GDP (in USD Billion) , 2015-2025 68

Figure 30: UK Exports of goods, (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 69

Figure 31: UK Imports of goods and services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 70

Figure 32: UK Gross National Disposable Income, current prices (USD Billion), 2005-2012 71

Figure 33: UK GBP per USD , 2015-2024 72

Figure 34: UK Market Capitalization of listed companies (USD Billion), 2005-2012 73

Figure 35: UK Market Capitalization of listed companies(%GDP), 2005-2012 74

Figure 36: UK Government Cash surplus/deficit (LCU Billion), 2005-2012 75

Figure 37: UK Goods exports as % of GDP, 2005-2014 76

Figure 38: UK Goods imports as % of GDP, 2005-2014 77

Figure 39: UK Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 78

Figure 40: UK Services exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 79

Figure 41: UK FDI, net (BoP, Current USD Billion), 2005-2014 80

Figure 42: UK Net FDI as a % of GDP, 2005-2014 81

Figure 43: UK Mining, manufacturing and Utilities Output (USD Billion), 2005-2014 82

List of Tables

Table 1: The UK Army Strength 14

Table 2: The UK Air Force Strength 16

Table 3: The UK Navy Strength 18

Table 4: The UK- Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 19

Table 5: The UK- Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 20

Table 6: UK Defense Budget (GBP Billion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 23

Table 7: UK Defense Expenditure (GBP Billion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 25

Table 8: UK Defense Expenditure (GBP Billion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 28

Table 9: UK Defense Budget Allocation (%), 2014-2023 30

Table 10: UK Peacekeeping Services Budget and Foreign Military Aid (USD Billion), 2014-2023 32

Table 11: UK Defense Capability Budget (GBP Billion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 34

Table 12: UK Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 36

Table 13: Capital Expenditure (GBP Billion and USD Billion), 2014-2023 38

Table 14: UK-Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 40

Table 15: UK Homeland Security Expenditure (GBP Billion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 41

Table 16: Terrorism Index,2018 45

Table 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 48

Table 18: Top 10 UK Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million)-2018-2023 52

Table 19: The UK Budget Formation Timetable 61

Table 20: UK's Participation in International Defense Development Programs 63

Table 21: Competitive Landscape of the UK Defense Industry 65

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Defense, budget, offset, regulation, capital expenditure, homeland, key drivers and Challenges, market opportunities, procurement, entry route, announcements, alliances, contract awards, financial analysis, business environment, BAE Systems Plc., Rolls-Royce Plc., GKN Aerospace Services, Babcock International Group Plc, Leonardo, Thales UK, General Dynamics UK Ltd, Boeing UK, Lockheed Martin UK Ltd, L-3 Communications Group Plc, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Airbus S.A.S

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