Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023


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Executive Summary

Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

The Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the German defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

- The German defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the German defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porter's Five Force analysis of the German defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the German defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

- Germany is one of the top 10 defense markets globally, with a defense budget allocation of USD 46.5 billion in 2018. The country's defense expenditure is primarily driven by military modernization programs and its involvement in peacekeeping operations. Defense expenditure registered a CAGR of 1.92% registered between 2014 and 2018.

- Capital expenditure's share of Germany's total defense budget increased from 17.9% in 2014 to 19.7% in 2018. Over the forecast period, capital expenditure's average share is expected to be 19.6%, while the remaining 80.4% will be directed towards revenue expenditure.

- The MoD is expected to invest in Land-based C4ISR, Military IT Networking and frigates among others.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the German defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the German defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts



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Table of Contents

1. Introduction 8

1.1. What is this Report About? 8

1.2. Definitions 8

1.3. Summary Methodology 10

1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 11

2. Executive Summary 12

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 14

3.1. Current Market Scenario 15

3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception 15

3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 16

3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 17

3.1.4. Procurement Programs 22

3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects 26

3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances 27

3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 28

3.2.1. Germany's defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 5.11% over 2019-2023 28

3.2.2. Maintenance of the country's armed forces and peacekeeping operations to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period 30

3.2.3. German defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decrease 31

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 32

3.3.1. Germany to allocate a higher share towards revenue expenditure than capital expenditure over the forecast period 32

3.3.2. Capital expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 5.20% over the forecast period 34

3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase significantly between 2019-2023 36

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 38

3.4.1. German homeland security expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 8.14% during the forecast period 38

3.4.2. Counter terrorism and cyber security to drive homeland security expenditure 40

3.4.3. Germany falls under moderately affected on the Terrorism Index 41

3.4.4. Germany has a terrorism index score of 4.9 42

3.4.5. Germany faces a moderate threat from foreign terrorist organizations 43

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 45

3.5.1. The German defense budget is expected to increase over the forecast period 45

3.5.2. Germany's defense expenditure is expected to be one of the top among European countries 47

3.5.3. Germany allocates a lower share of GDP to defense compared to other European countries 48

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 49

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million) - Projections over 2018-2023 49

3.6.2. Land-based C4ISR 50

3.6.3. Military IT- Networking 51

3.6.4. Frigates 52

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 53

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 55

4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to remain steady during the forecast period 55

4.1.2. Germany sourced most of its arms imports from the US 56

4.1.3. Missiles and sensors dominate military hardware imports 57

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 58

4.2.1. Arms exports recovered over 2014-2016 after a decrease in 2012 and 2013, but declined again in 2017 58

4.2.2. South Korea, Greece and Israel are Germany's biggest arms importers 59

4.2.3. Naval vessels and armored vehicles are the main exported defense products 60

5. Industry Dynamics 61

5.1. Five Forces Analysis 61

5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low 62

5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: High 62

5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Low 62

5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low 62

5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Low 62

6. Market Entry Strategy 63

6.1. Market Regulation 63

6.1.1. Investment policy promotes 100% FDI in the defense industry 63

6.2. Market Entry Route 64

6.2.1. Budget Process 64

6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 65

6.2.3. Foreign defense OEMs form large conglomerates to enter the market 65

6.2.4. Foreign OEMs establish subsidiaries or form JVs to enter the industry 65

6.3. Key Challenges 66

6.3.1. Project delays deter defense industry growth 66

6.3.2. German arms exports to large defense markets outside the EU are minimal 66

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 67

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 67

7.1.1. Foreign OEMs have strong collaborations with domestic defense firms 67

7.2. Key Companies 70

7.2.1. Diehl Stiftung: Overview 70

7.2.2. Diehl Stiftung: Products 70

7.2.3. Diehl Stiftung: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 70

7.2.4. Diehl Stiftung: Alliances 71

7.2.5. Diehl Stiftung: Recent Contract Wins 72

7.2.6. Airbus Group: Overview 73

7.2.7. Airbus Group: Products 73

7.2.8. Airbus Group: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 73

7.2.9. Airbus Group: Alliances 74

7.2.10. Airbus Group: Recent Contract Wins 75

7.2.11. Airbus Group: Financial Analysis 76

7.2.12. Heckler & Koch: Overview 78

7.2.13. Heckler & Koch: Products 78

7.2.14. Heckler and Koch: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 79

7.2.15. Heckler and Koch: Recent Contract Wins 79

7.2.16. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Overview 81

7.2.17. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Products and Services 81

7.2.18. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 81

7.2.19. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Alliances 82

7.2.20. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Recent Contract Wins 82

7.2.21. Airbus Helicopters: Overview 83

7.2.22. Airbus Helicopters: Products and Services 83

7.2.23. Airbus Helicopters: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 83

7.2.24. Airbus Helicopters: Alliances 84

7.2.25. Airbus Helicopters: Recent Contract Wins 84

7.2.26. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Overview 86

7.2.27. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Products 86

7.2.28. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 86

7.2.29. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Alliances 87

7.2.30. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Recent Contract Wins 87

7.2.31. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS): Overview 88

7.2.32. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS): Products 88

7.2.33. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS): Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 88

7.2.34. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: Alliances 89

7.2.35. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: Recent Contract Wins 89

7.2.36. Thales Deutschland: Overview 90

7.2.37. Thales Deutschland: Products 90

7.2.38. Thales Deutschland: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 91

7.2.39. Thales Deutschland: Alliances 92

7.2.40. Thales Deutschland: Recent Contract Wins 92

7.2.41. MBDA: Overview 94

7.2.42. MBDA: Products 94

7.2.43. MBDA: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 95

7.2.44. MBDA: Alliances 96

7.2.45. MBDA: Recent Contract Wins 96

7.2.46. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: Overview 98

7.2.47. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: Products 98

7.2.48. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 98

7.2.49. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: Recent Contract Wins 99

7.2.50. Rheinmetall: Overview 100

7.2.51. Rheinmetall: Products and Services 100

7.2.52. Rheinmetall: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 104

7.2.53. Rheinmetall: Alliances 105

7.2.54. Rheinmetall: Recent Contract Wins 106

7.2.55. Rheinmetall: Financial Analysis 108

8. Business Environment and Country Risk 110

8.1. Economic Performance 110

8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita 110

8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current USD 111

8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services 112

8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services 113

8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income 114

8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per USD 115

8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 116

8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a Percentage of GDP 117

8.1.9. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP 118

8.1.10. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 119

8.1.11. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 120

8.1.12. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP 121

8.1.13. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP 122

8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investments, Net (BoP, Current USD billion) 123

8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 124

8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities, Output (LCU billion) 125

9. Appendix 126

9.1. About SDI 126

9.2. Disclaimer 126

List of Figures

Figure 1: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 29

Figure 2: German Defense Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 29

Figure 3: GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 31

Figure 4: German Defense Expenditure Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 33

Figure 5: German Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 35

Figure 6: German Defense Capital Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 35

Figure 7: German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 37

Figure 8: German Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2014-2023 39

Figure 9: Germany Homeland Security Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 39

Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 41

Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 42

Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 46

Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (USD Billion), 2018 and 2023 47

Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 48

Figure 15: Land-based C4ISR Market Size (USD Million), 2018-2023 50

Figure 16: Military IT- networking Market Size (USD Million), 2018-2023 51

Figure 17: Frigates Market Size (USD Million), 2018-2023 52

Figure 18: Top German Defense Procurements in Terms of Their Supplier Relationships 54

Figure 19: German Defense Imports Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV Values) 55

Figure 20: German Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 56

Figure 21: German Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 57

Figure 22: German Defense Exports Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 58

Figure 23: German Defense Exports by Country (%), 2013-2017 59

Figure 24: German Defense Exports by Category (%), 2013-2017 60

Figure 25: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis 61

Figure 26: Airbus Group - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2013-2017 76

Figure 27: Airbus Group - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2013-2017 77

Figure 28: Airbus Group - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2013-2017 77

Figure 29: Rheinmetall - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2013-2017 108

Figure 30: Rheinmetall - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017 108

Figure 31: Rheinmetall - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017 109

Figure 32: Germany GDP per Capita, 2015-2025 110

Figure 33: Germany Gross Domestic Product (current USD Billion), 2015-2025 111

Figure 34: Germany Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 112

Figure 35: Germany Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 113

Figure 36: Germany Gross National Disposable Income (USD Billion), 2005-2012 114

Figure 37: Germany LCU per USD , 2015-2024 115

Figure 38: Germany Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USD Billion), 2005-2012 116

Figure 39: Germany Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 117

Figure 40: Germany Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 118

Figure 41: Germany Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 119

Figure 42: Germany Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 120

Figure 43: Germany Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 121

Figure 44: Germany Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 122

Figure 45: Foreign Direct Investments, Net (BoP, Current USD Billion) 2005-2013 123

Figure 46: Germany Net Foreign Direct Investment as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 124

Figure 47: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU billion), 2005-2014 125

List of Tabels

Table 1: German Army Strength 17

Table 2: German Air Force Strength 19

Table 3: German Navy Strength 20

Table 4: German - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 22

Table 5: German - Future Procurement Programs 24

Table 6: Top German Defense Procurement Programs by Value (USD Million), 2018-2023 25

Table 7: Germany Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 28

Table 8: GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 31

Table 9: German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 32

Table 10: German Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Million & USD Million), 2014-2023 34

Table 11: Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 36

Table 12: German Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR Billion & USD Billion), 2014-2023 38

Table 13: Terrorism Index, 2018 43

Table 14: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 45

Table 15: Top German Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million), 2018-2023 49

Table 16: Germany Budget Formation Timetable 64

Table17: Key Foreign Players and Operations in the German Defense Industry 67

Table 18: Competitive Landscape of the German Defense Industry 68

Table 19: Top Defense Suppliers in the German Defense Industry - By Value (USD Million) 2018-2023 69

Table 20: Diehl Stiftung - Products 70

Table 21: Diehl Stiftung - Alliances 71

Table 22: Diehl Stiftung - Recent Contract Wins 72

Table 23: Airbus Group - Products 73

Table 24: Airbus Group - Alliances 74

Table 25: Airbus Group - Recent Contract Wins 75

Table 26: Heckler & Koch GmbH (HK) - Products 78

Table 27: Heckler & Koch - Recent Contract Wins 79

Table 28: MAN Truck & Bus AG - Products and Services 81

Table 29: MAN Truck & Bus AG - Alliances 82

Table 30: MAN Truck & Bus AG - Recent Contract Wins 82

Table 31: Airbus Helicopters - Products and Services 83

Table 32: Airbus Helicopters - Alliances 84

Table 33: Airbus Helicopters - Contract Wins 84

Table 34: ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik (ESG) - Products 86

Table 35: ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik - Alliances 87

Table 36: ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik - Recent Contract Wins 87

Table 37: ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) - Products 88

Table 38: ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Alliances 89

Table 39: ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Recent Contract Wins 89

Table 40: Thales Deutschland - Products 90

Table 41: Thales Deutschland - Alliances 92

Table 42: Thales Deutschland - Contracts Wins 92

Table 43: MBDA - Products 94

Table 44: MBDA - Alliances 96

Table 45: MBDA - Recent Contract Wins 97

Table 46: Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug - Products 98

Table 47: Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug - Recent Contract Wins 99

Table 48: Rheinmetall - Products and Services 100

Table 49: Rheinmetall - Alliances 105

Table 50:Rheinmetall - Recent Contract Wins 106

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Diehl Stiftung

Airbus Group

Heckler & Koch GmbH (HK)

MAN Truck & Bus AG

Airbus Helicopters

ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik (ESG)

ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS)

Thales Deutschland

MBDA

Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug

Rheinmetall

Defense, budget, offset, regulation, capital expenditure, homeland, drivers, market opportunities, procurement, entry route, key challenge, announcements, alliances, contract awards, financial analysis, business environment

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