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Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021


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Executive Summary

The Kazakh defense market will be driven by anarms race in the region with focus on modernizing its military by procuring advanced defense systems and growing threats from domestic terrorism. In addition, the capital expenditure allocation is anticipated to average 35.5% of the total defense budget during 2017-2021 and defense equipment procurements are expected to be in the areas of military rotorcraft, air defense systems, and military transport aircraft.

Key Findings

During 2012-2016, Kazakh defense expenditure registered a growth rate of -1.01%, declining from USD1.8 billion in 2012 to USD1.73 billion in 2016

Military expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 8.76% during 2017-2021, to value USD2.08 billion in 2021

Corruption, lack of transparency, and domination of Russian companies impose challenges for the Kazakh defense market

Demand for equipment is mainly expected to revolve around helicopters, air defense systems, and military transport aircraft during 2017-2021

Synopsis

Strategic Defence Intelligences report - Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021 offers detailed analysis of the industry with market size forecasts from 2017-2021. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand in the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants. In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2017-2021, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns

Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

Porters Five Force analysis of the defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years

Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities from 2016 to 2026

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: including an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy

Identify and track the global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams

Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders, technical specifications, and the countrys expected investment pattern during 2017-2021

Make correct business decisions based on detailed analysis of the defense industry from 2017-2021, which includes the total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis

Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities

Channel resources by identifying various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2017-2021

1 Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?

1.2. Definitions

1.3. Summary Methodology

1.4. SDI Terrorism Index

1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

3.1.1. Kazakh annual defense expenditure to reach USD2.1 billion by 2021

3.1.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and counter-terrorism to drive Kazakhstans defense expenditure

3.1.3. The countrys defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 0.71% on average over the forecast period

3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

3.2.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase considerably over the forecast period

3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to increase during the forecast period

3.2.3. Kazakh revenue expenditure expected to record a CAGR of 8.43% during the forecast period

3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period

3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast

3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase at a CAGR of 10.77% during the forecast period

3.3.2. Human trafficking, drug smuggling, and cybercrime form the major components of homeland security expenditure

3.3.3. Kazakhstan is at a low risk from external and internal threats

3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets

3.4.1. Kazakh defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 8.76% over the forecast period

3.4.2. Kazakhstans military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure

3.4.3. Kazakhstan allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense

3.4.4. Kazakhstan faces low risk of terrorist attack

3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators

3.5.1. Helicopters

3.5.2. Air defense system

3.5.3. Military Transport Aircraft

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Market Dynamics

4.1.1. The current need to modernize its armed forces will drive defense imports

4.1.2. Russia was the leading supplier of arms to Kazakhstan during the historic period; a trend that is expected to carry on during the forecast period

4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2010-2014

4.2. Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1. Kazakhstan does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry

5 Industry Dynamics

5.1. Five Forces Analysis

5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: medium to high

5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: low to medium

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium

6 Market Entry Strategy

6.1. Market Regulation

6.1.1. Kazakhstan does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country

6.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI)in defense sector not disclosed by the government

6.2. Market Entry Route

6.2.1. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs

6.2.2. Joint venture and license manufacturing agreements provide an attractive market entry route

6.3. Key Challenges

6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency create roadblock for foreign companies

6.3.2. Domination of Russian companies poses a challenge to other foreign firms

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview

7.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Kazakhstan

7.2. Key Companies

7.2.1. Airbus: overview

7.2.2. Airbus: products and services

7.2.3. Airbus: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.4. Airbus: alliances

7.2.5. Airbus: Recent Contract Wins

7.2.6. Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG: Overview

7.2.7. Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG: products and services

7.2.8. Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG: Recent contract wins

7.2.9. Uralvagonzavod - overview

7.2.10. Uralvagonzavod - major products and services

7.2.11. Uralvagonzavod - Alliances

7.2.12. Sagem: overview

7.2.13. Sagem: products and services

7.2.14. Sagem: Alliances

7.2.15. Astrium: overview

7.2.16. Astrium: products and services

7.2.17. Astrium: Alliances

7.2.18. Thales: Overview

7.2.19. Thales: products and services

7.2.20. Thales: recent announcements and strategic initiatives

7.2.21. Thales: alliances

7.2.22. Thales: Recent Contract Wins

8 Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics

8.1.1. Total Rural Population

8.1.2. Total Urban Population

8.1.3. Number of households

8.2. Economic Performance

8.2.1. GDP Per Capita

8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices

8.2.3. Exports of goods and services (current USD Bn)

8.2.4. Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn)

8.2.5. Gross National disposable income (USD Bn)

8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (USD Bn)

8.2.7. Consumer Price Index

8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index

8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per US Dollars

8.2.10. Local Currency Unit per Euro

8.2.11. Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn)

8.2.12. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)

8.2.13. Total Government cash surplus/deficit (KZT Bn)

8.2.14. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (KZT)

8.2.15. Goods exports as a % of GDP

8.2.16. Goods imports as a % of GDP

8.2.17. Goods balance as a % of GDP

8.2.18. Services imports as a % of GDP

8.2.19. Service exports as a % of GDP

8.2.20. Services balance as a % of GDP

8.2.21. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current USD Bn)

8.2.22. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP

8.2.23. International reserves, including gold

8.2.24. External Debt as % of GDP

8.3. Energy and Utilities

8.3.1. Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation

8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation

8.3.3. Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity

8.3.4. Electricity Exports

8.3.5. Electricity Imports

8.3.6. Proved Natural Gas Reserves

8.3.7. Petroleum Consumption

8.3.8. Crude Oil Proved Reserves

8.4. Infrastructure

8.4.1. Roads, total network (km)

8.4.2. Rail lines (total route-km)

8.4.3. Air Transport, freight (million ton-km)

8.5. Minerals

8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output

8.6. Technology

8.6.1. Research and Development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands)

8.7. Telecommunication

8.7.1. Telephone Lines

8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate

9 Appendix

9.1. About SDI

9.2. Disclaimer

Figure 1: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (USD billion), 2012-2016

Figure 2: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (USD billion), 2017-2021

Figure 3: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2012-2016

Figure 4: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2017-2021

Figure 5: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016

Figure 6: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021

Figure 7: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016

Figure 8: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021

Figure 9: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016

Figure 10: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021

Figure 11: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (USD billion), 2012-2016

Figure 12: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (USD billion), 2017-2021

Figure 13: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (KZT billion), 2012-2016

Figure 14: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2017-2021

Figure 15: Kazakh Revenue Expenditure (USD billion), 2012-2016

Figure 16: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation(USD billion), 2017-2021

Figure 17: Kazakh Revenue Budget Expenditure (KZT billion), 2012-2016

Figure 18: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2017-2021

Figure 19: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2012-2016

Figure 20: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2017-2021

Figure 21: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (USD bn), 2012-2016

Figure 22: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (USD bn), 2017-2021

Figure 23: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2012-2016

Figure 24: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2017-2021

Figure 25: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2016

Figure 26: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021

Figure 27: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (USD Billion), 2016 and 2021

Figure 28: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2016

Figure 29: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016

Figure 30: Kazakh Defense Import Trend(USD million), 2010-2014 (TIV values)

Figure 31: Kazakh Defense Imports by Country (%), 2010-2014

Figure 32: Kazakh Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010-2014

Figure 33: Industry Dynamics Porters Five Forces Analysis

Figure 34: Kazakh Rural Population (In Millions), 2016-2025

Figure 35: Kazakh Urban Population (In Millions), 2016-2025

Figure 36: Kazakh Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017

Figure 37: Kazakh GDP Per Capita (USD), 2016-2025

Figure 38: Kazakh GDP, Current Prices (USD Billion), 2016-2025

Figure 39: Kazakh Exports of Goods and Services (current USD Bn), 2004-2013

Figure 40: Kazakh Imports of goods and services (current USD Bn), 2004-2013

Figure 41: Kazakh Gross National Disposable Income (USD Bn), 2002-2011

Figure 42: Kazakh Manufacturing Output (USD Bn), 2003-2012

Figure 43: Kazakh Consumer Price Index, 2016-2025

Figure 44: Wholesale Price Index, 2002-2011

Figure 45: Local Currency per USD, 2016-2025

Figure 46: Local Currency per Euro, 2016-2025

Figure 47: Kazakh Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn), 2003-2012

Figure 48: Kazakh Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2003-2012

Figure 49: Kazakh Total Government cash surplus/deficit (KZT Bn), 2004-2011

Figure 50: Kazakh Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002-2011

Figure 51: Kazakh Goods exports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012

Figure 52: Kazakh Goods imports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012

Figure 53: Kazakh Goods balance as a % of GDP, 2003-2012

Figure 54: Kazakh Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012

Figure 55: Kazakh Service Exports as a % of GDP, 2003-2012

Figure 56: Kazakh Services Balance as a % of GDP, 2003-2012

Figure 57: Kazakh Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current USD Bn), 2005-2012

Figure 58: Kazakh Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2006-2012

Figure 59: Kazakh International Reserves, Including Gold (USD Billion), 2003-2012

Figure 60: Kazakh External Debt as % of GDP (%), 2003-2012

Figure 61: Kazakh Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002-2011

Figure 62: Kazakh Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012

Figure 63: Kazakh Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010

Figure 64: Kazakh Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2003-2012

Figure 65: Kazakh Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002-2011

Figure 66: Kazakh Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2005-2014

Figure 67: Kazakh Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003-2012

Figure 68: Kazakh Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2005-2014

Figure 69: Kazakh Roads, total network (km), 2003-2011

Figure 70: Kazakh Rail lines (total route-km), 2003-2012

Figure 71: Kazakh Air Transport, freight (million ton-km), 2003-2012

Figure 72: Kazakh Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Billion), 2003-2012

Figure 73: Kazakh Research and Development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands), 2000-2009

Figure 74: Kazakh Telephone Lines (In Million), 2003-2012

Figure 75: Kazakh Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People), 2003-2012

Table 1: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (USD billion), 2012-2016

Table 2: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (USD billion), 2017-2021

Table 3: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2012-2016

Table 4: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2017-2021

Table 5: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (USD), 2012-2016

Table 6: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (USD), 2017-2021

Table 7: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in KZT), 2012-2016

Table 8: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (KZT), 2017-2021

Table 9: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016

Table 10: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021

Table 11: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (USD Billion), 2012-2016

Table 12: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (USD billion), 2017-2021

Table 13: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (KZT Billion), 2012-2016

Table 14: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2017-2021

Table 15: Kazakh Revenue Expenditure (USD billion), 2012-2016

Table 16: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation (USD billion), 2017-2021

Table 17: Kazakh Revenue Budget Expenditure (KZT Billion), 2012-2016

Table 18: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2017-2021

Table 19: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2012-2016

Table 20: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD), 2017-2021

Table 21: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (USD bn), 2012-2016

Table 22: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (USD bn), 2017-2021

Table 23: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2012-2016

Table 24: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2017-2021

Table 25: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021

Table 26: SDI Terrorism Index

Table 27: Airbus - Product Focus

Table 28: Airbus: Alliances

Table 29: Airbus: Recent Contract Wins

Table 30: Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG- Product Focus

Table 31: Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG - Recent Contract Wins

Table 32: Uralvagonzavod - Major Products & Services

Table 33: Uralvagonzavod - Alliances

Table 34: Sagem- product focus

Table 35: Sagem: Alliances

Table 36: Astrium- Product Focus

Table 37: Astrium - Alliances

Table 38: Thales - Product Focus

Table 39: Thales: Alliances

Table 40: Thales - Recent Contract Wins

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Airbus

Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG

Uralvagonzavod

Sagem

Astrium

Thales

Defense, Budget, Offset, Regulation, Capital Expenditure, Homeland, Drivers, Market Opportunities, Procurement, Entry Route, Key Challenge, Announcements, Alliances, Contract Awards, Financial Analysis, Business Environment


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