Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023


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Executive Summary

Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

The Future of the Lebanese Defense Industry-Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Lebanese defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- The Lebanese defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Lebanese defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities:list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Lebanese defense industry.

Scope

- Plagued by sectarian violence, the country faces increasing threats of militancy, homegrown extremism, and unrest in refugee camps. In addition, the Syrian civil war has resulted in a large number of refugees' crossing over to Lebanon to live in camps.

- As a consequence, these refugee camps have increased the burden on the Lebanese economy by fuelling sectarian violence in the country and complicating its internal security.

- Lebanon's military expenditure, which is valued at USD 2.6 billion in 2018, registered a CAGR of 2.98% during 2014-2018. Moreover, the country is anticipated to record a CAGR of 5.01% over the forecast period to value USD 3.3 billion in 2023.

- As a percentage of GDP, the country's defense and security expenditure is estimated to average 4.8% over the forecast period compared to an average of 4.9% recorded during the historic period.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Lebanese defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers . This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the Lebanese defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends , and latest industry contracts



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Table of Contents

1. Introduction 6

1.1. What is this Report About? 6

1.2. Definitions 6

1.3. Summary Methodology 8

1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 10

2. Executive Summary 11

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 12

3.1. Current Market Conditions 13

3.1.1. Military fleet size 13

3.1.2. Procurement Programs 16

3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges 16

3.2. Defense and Security Market Size Historical and Forecast 18

3.2.1. Lebanese defense and security expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.01% over the forecast period 18

3.2.2. Cross border violence expected to be a key factor driving defense expenditure 21

3.2.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to increase over the forecast period 22

3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 24

3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation to average 32.4% of the total budget over the forecast period 24

3.3.2. Capital expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 5.41% over the forecast period 26

3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 28

3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 30

3.4.1. Sectarian violence and drug trafficking will be the key factors driving homeland security 30

3.4.2. Lebanon considered in the 'highly affected' category in terms of terrorist attack 31

3.4.3. Lebanon faces high risk from acts of terrorism 32

3.4.4. Lebanon has a terrorism index score of 5.6 34

3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 35

3.5.1. Lebanon to remain at the bottom of the Top defense spenders list 35

3.5.2. The country's defense budget is low compared to other Middle Eastern countries 37

3.5.3. Lebanon's defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to average 4.8% over the forecast period 38

3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers 39

3.6.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (USD Million)-Projections over period 2018-2023 39

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 40

4.1. Import Market Dynamics 41

4.1.1. Defense industry heavily relies on imports from foreign countries 41

4.1.2. The US is the key defense suppliers to Lebanon 42

4.1.3. Armored vehicles, artillery and missiles dominated Lebanese defense imports during the historic period 43

4.2. Export Market Dynamics 44

4.2.1. Lebanon's defense export market is negligible 44

5. Market Entry Strategy 45

5.1. Market Regulation 45

5.1.1. The Lebanese Government prohibits FDI in the defense industry 45

5.1.2. Lebanon does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country 45

5.2. Market Entry Route 46

5.2.1. Government-to-government deals are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs 46

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 47

6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 47

6.1.1. Lebanese defense sector is dominated by foreign competitors 47

7. Business Environment and Country Risk 48

7.1. Economic Performance 48

7.1.1. GDP per Capita 48

7.1.2. Gross Domestic Product 49

7.1.3. National Disposal Income (USD Billion) 50

7.1.4. Exports of Goods and Services 51

7.1.5. Imports of Goods and Services 52

7.1.6. LCU per USD (period average) 53

7.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 54

7.1.8. Market Capitalization of listed companies as a % GDP 55

7.1.9. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP 56

7.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP 57

7.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP 58

7.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP 59

7.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP 60

7.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment 61

7.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP 62

7.1.17. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 63

8. Appendix 64

8.1. About SDI 64

8.2. Disclaimer 64

List of Figures

Figure 1: Lebanon-Defense and Security Expenditure (LBP Trillion), 2014-2023 20

Figure 2: Lebanon-Defense and Security Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 20

Figure 3: Lebanon-GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 23

Figure 4: Lebanese-Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 25

Figure 5: Lebanon-Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Trillion), 2014-2023 27

Figure 6: Lebanon-Defense Capital Expenditure (USD Billion), 2014-2023 27

Figure 7: Lebanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 29

Figure 8: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 31

Figure 9: Terrorism Index, 2018 34

Figure 10: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 36

Figure 11: Benchmarking with World's Largest Defense Spenders (USD Billion), 2018 and 2023 37

Figure 12: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP-2018 38

Figure 13: Lebanese Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 41

Figure 14: Lebanese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 42

Figure 15: Lebanese Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2013-2017 43

Figure 16: Lebanese GDP per Capita (USD ), 2015-2025 48

Figure 17: Lebanese GDP (current USD Billion), 2015-2025 49

Figure 18: National Disposable Income (USD Billion), 2001-2010 50

Figure 19: Lebanese Exports of Goods and Services (current USD Billion), 2005-2013 51

Figure 20: Lebanese Imports of Goods and Services (current USD Billion), 2005-2013 52

Figure 21: Lebanese LCU per USD, 2016-2025 53

Figure 22: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (USD Billion), 2005-2012 54

Figure 23: Lebanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (%of GDP), 2005-2012 55

Figure 24: Lebanese Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP, 2005-2012 56

Figure 25: Lebanese Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 57

Figure 26: Lebanese Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 58

Figure 27: Lebanese Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 59

Figure 28: Lebanese Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 60

Figure 29: Lebanese Net Foreign Direct Investment (USD Billion), 2005-2013 61

Figure 30: Lebanese Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2005-2013 62

Figure 31: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (in Millions), 2005-2014 63

List of Tables

Table 1: Lebanon-Army Strength 13

Table 2: Lebanon-Navy Strength 14

Table 3: Lebanon-Air Force Strength 15

Table 4: Lebanon-Ongoing Procurement Programs 16

Table 5: Lebanon-Ongoing Procurement Programs 16

Table 6: Lebanon-Defense and Security Expenditure (LBP Trillion and USD Billion), 2014-2023 19

Table 7: Lebanon-GDP Growth v/s Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 22

Table 8: Lebanon-Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 24

Table 9: Lebanon-Defense Capital Expenditure (LBP Trillion and USD Billion), 2014-2023 26

Table 10: Lebanon-Per Capita Defense Expenditure (USD ), 2014-2023 28

Table 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 32

Table 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets-2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 35

Table 13: Top Lebanon Defense Market Sectors by Value (USD Million)-2018-2023 39

Table 14: Lebanon-Competitive Landscape of Defense Industry, 2018 47

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