What is the future market Potential of the Last Mile LEVs in KSA?

Favorable government policies and support in terms of subsidies and better availability of charging infrastructure to drive the LEV sales in KSA Market
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EVs are slowly gaining traction with less than 0.5% of vehicles deployed as PHEVs in Saudi Arabia. Efforts to create a market for EVs are consistent with the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan, which aims to reduce the country’s dependence on oil, diversify the economy, and implement a range of social reforms. The EV infrastructure in  Saudi Arabia is still lagging behind as the government is yet to install charging stations in public areas.
Here is an overview of the future market potential of last-mile LEVs in KSA and also how new types of vehicles like LEVs are going to help e-commerce retailers to overcome the last-mile problem.

1. The advent of e-commerce, food and grocery deliveries is leading to a rapid increase in demand for last-mile deliveries.

Last-mile goods distribution plays a key role…

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…in fulfilling the number of orders placed by a consumer

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Utilization for LEVs differs from city to city. E-commerce delivery vans usually make 45-50 deliveries in a day, with an average trip length of 100 kms in Tier 1 cities and 50 kms in Tier 2/3 cities. Online Grocery companies are expected to adopt In-Home Delivery by the year 2025 which could change the course of conducting deliveries in future.

Source: Published Articles, Interviews with Industry experts in KSA LEV Market for last mile deliveries, Ken Research Analysis
Note: CEP does not include Food delivery but is inclusive of E-Commerce and Online Grocery Deliveries * Grocery Delivery is a part of E-Commerce Delivery

2. However, most e-commerce retailers in KSA struggle with last-mile delivery as delays, reduced success rate & difficulty cash-on-delivery (COD) handling

High Cost

~ 50% of total CEP logistic cost is from Last Mile deliveries

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ADDITIONAL FACTORS
  • Expectation of same-day deliveries from the consumers puts a greater strain on the budget.
  • Inconsistent demand, with spikes during festive seasons such as Ramadan put additional pressure on supply side ecosystem for e-commerce logistics and hyperlocal logistic service providers

Other Challenges

Lack of Transparency

Very few express companies in Saudi Arabia, barring the E-Commerce and Food Delivery, provide GPS real time tracking as an option to the clients demanding full access to the real-time visibility of their delivery.

Large COD Based Transactions

Over 60% of customers in Saudi Arabia opt COD services. With higher rates of returns and failed deliveries, COD-based deliveries are estimated to be twice as expensive as prepaid orders. Most global couriers, such as FedEx and DHL, do not offer COD, limiting delivery options to regional and local players.

Achieving Routing Efficiency/Optimization

Vehicle routing is a complex calculation of available drivers and vehicles using the shortest routes to deliver consumer orders within the requested time windows. A routing delay or an inefficient routing mechanism can lead to missed deliveries or slipped SLAs which can greatly hamper customer experience.

Reverse Logistics/Replacement Costs

Last-mile delivery failure rates range between 15%-25% in Saudi Arabia leading to poor customer satisfaction and lost revenue where returns and reattempts of E-Commerce shipments cause delays and long wait-times. The average cost of a failed delivery can go up to $16.58.

Source: Published Articles, Interviews with Industry experts in KSA LEV Market for last mile deliveries, Ken Research Analysis

3. E-com Retailers need to come up with solutions to solve the LMD problem in an efficient way to meet the growing customer demands

Opportunities in Last Mile Delivery Market

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Tech-Enabled E-com Logistics Platform/Automated Shipping Software

  • One stop E-commerce logistics platform to manage the operations. Eg. Shiprocket (India)
  • Services:
    1. Manage shipping and Reverse Logistics
    2. COD orders consolidation
    3. Maximum insurance coverage for lost shipments
    4. Pickup from multiple locations
    5. Manage finances with COD and Billing Reconciliation Dashboard
    6. Effective order tracking via SMS and Email notifications
    7. White labeled shipment tracking page
    8. Easy pickup for return order requests
    9. Reduce undelivery with NDR and RTO dashboards
    10. Process bulk orders in a few clicks
  • KSA E-com logistics market opportunity size stands ~US$ 300 Mn (2020)
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logistic

B2B SAAS Platform – Expected opportunity size US$ 150-200 Mn (2020)

  • Logistics management dashboard offered on per user subscription basis to express logistics companies, customizable as per their need, flow corridor and fleet type. Data analytics modules to track & monitor shipment life cycle & provide KPI to optimize resource & order and speed predictions
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delivery

Digital Freight Brokers/ Load Discovery Aggregator Platform

  • Freight brokers charging commission to connect shippers & carriers using advanced route optimization algorithms for short/long haul with different truck variants at affordable rates.
  • For eg. Ezyhaul (South Asia) & Transportify (Philippines), Blackbuck (India)
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Source: Published Articles, Interviews with Industry experts in KSA LEV Market for last mile deliveries, Ken Research Analysis
KPI refer to key performance indicators

4. Companies such as Saee and Aramex aiming to Disrupt LMD in KSA to resolve the issues.

Saee Disrupting Last Mile Delivery for E-Commerce Companies

Barriers

  • Delayed Deliveries and Reduced Success Rate: Only 7 out of 10 shipments gets delivered in KSA, meaning that e-commerce retailers endure ~30% of the cost with no actual revenue.
  • Difficulty Handling COD: Slow Cash flow where cash gap takes more than 3 months for actual revenue recognition.
  • Inconsistent Demand: Increased demand for residential deliveries during COVID 19 and festive seasons such as Ramadan.
checklist

Solutions Provided by Saee

  • Same-day shipping to ecommerce platforms for within the city shipments and three-day shipping for out of city deliveries.
  • Guaranteed fast Cash-on-Delivery (COD) consolidation for clients.
  • Cash Before Delivery: Saee transfers cash to the clients every week even before the shipment is delivered after charging a marginal fee per order, just to endure the cost and enable working capital management.
  • Reliance on a Fleet of Frelancers for facilitation of smart, flexible dispatch to Freelancers: Saee recruits freelancers according to courier demands, thus liberating them from the payrolls for curriers, gasoline, and vehicles' insurance costs, as well as off-seasons financial damage.

Aramex launches new last-mile ‘Pudo’ delivery option

  • Aramex launched its latest last-mile delivery solution, a click-and-collect-style option called ‘Aramex Spot’ in 2019.
  • Strategy: As part of its efforts to enhance customer service and to accommodate the growing demand for more Pick-Up options, it has partnered with commercial locations to utilize their outlets as convenient PUDO locations for its customers shipments.
  • Partnership with Al-Dawaa Pharmacy: In the first phase of the partnership, Aramex launched service centers within 20 branches of Al-Dawaa Pharmacies distributed across the Kingdom.
  • The second phase will see Aramex expand to hundreds of branches within Al-Dawaa Pharmacies’ 800-strong pharmacy network.
  • Challenge: Saudi culture is very conservative having implications for the last mile since there are limitations on travel by female shoppers affecting their ability to collect in-store or from a PUDO point.
  • Approach: Aramex’s new PUDO network, when it reaches suitable density, will be an effective returns channel, enabling customers to return e-commerce shipments at service centers located across the pharmacy’s network.
Source: Published Articles, Interviews with Industry experts in KSA LEV Market for last mile deliveries, Ken Research Analysis
Note: PUDO refers to Pick ups and Drop Off.

5. New types of vehicles like LEVs and new logistic structures are emerging to address the new paradigm in E-Commerce Industry

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Opportunity for LEVs in E-Commerce Last Mile Delivery

    The rising competition to deliver faster has led to ecommerce and hyperlocal delivery players to partner with mobility players to expand their fleet while still staying lean on resources.

  • E-Mobility Solutions: E-commerce players like Noon and Amazon witnessing a large volume of orders and requiring larger delivery fleets will slowly move towards LEVs by partnering with e-mobility startups and suppliers to convert their fleet into an e-fleet.
  • Reduced Operational Cost: The cost to rent and maintain e-vehicles like e-scooters and e-cars will be lower in comparison to their ICE counterparts since there is no additional expenses like petrol/diesel costs.
  • Intra-City Cargo Applicability: The lower total cost of ownership and operating costs have made EVs more attractive for the intra-city cargo segment which comprise ~40% of total E-commerce shipments in KSA.
  • However, LEVs need to be as efficient as an ICE vehicles carrying a similar payload and covering more trips and at lesser costs.

Source: Published Articles, Interviews with Industry experts in KSA LEV Market for last mile deliveries, Ken Research Analysis

6. LEVs adoption is expected to reach 10% in the Last Mile Delivery Fleet by 2027

Expected EV Penetration in KSA Last Mile Delivery (Volumes)

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Currently, LEVs do not promise a higher adoption potential attributed to both a high cost disparity and a lack of vehicle. Small format EVs may gain momentum in the near future , given their lower fuel and maintenance costs. They are also less dependent on charging infrastructure, since their power requirements are lower, and they are more likely to come in models that allow battery swapping.

Key Takeaways

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    Target Segments:

  • Electric Vehicles in Food and Grocery Delivery sectors are expected to penetrate faster due to availability of hybrid models.
distance

    Preferable Serviceable Locations:

  • Major Demand Regions such as Central and Western Saudi Arabia (Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam and AL-Khobar being major cities)
implementation

    Initial Focus on Improving Delivery Infrastructure:

  • Expanding in-house delivery fleet or partnering with fleet management companies on contractual basis.
  • This will enable the companies to minimize the costs & gain a competitive edge in the industry.
Source: Published Articles, Interviews with Industry experts in KSA LEV Market for last mile deliveries, Ken Research Analysis
Note: EV penetration is a subjective judgment based on a proxy model from other developing market such as UAE, India and Norway
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