EpiCast Report: Melanoma-Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

EpiCast Report: Melanoma-Epidemiology Forecast to 2023


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Executive Summary

EpiCast Report: Melanoma-Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Melanoma of the skin is a malignant neoplasm of melanocytes and is a significant source of morbidity and mortality worldwide.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of melanoma of the skin (all ages) in the 8MM will increase from 155,057 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2013 to 207,606 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2023, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 3.39%. The forecast shows an increase in the number of diagnosed incident cases of melanoma of the skin in all eight markets with AGRs ranging from 1.37% in Germany to 4.64% in the UK. In 2013, there were 639,165 five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of melanoma of the skin in the 8MM. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of melanoma of the skin in the 8MM will increase to 860,889 diagnosed prevalent cases by 2023.

This forecast is based on a thorough literature review and is supported by 10 years of historical data from IARC's CI-5Plus database. The forecast for melanoma incident rates and diagnosed incident cases was based on detailed age-specific and sex-specific incidence trends in each of the 8MM from the CI-5Plus database published by the IARC of the WHO. GlobalData epidemiologists maintained consistent disease definition and forecasting methodology across all 8MM included in the report. In addition, GlobalData epidemiologists provided a comprehensive review of disease statistics and a realistic trend based on insights gained through research and analysis. GlobalData epidemiologists compared the diagnosed incident case estimates for melanoma from this forecast with the number of estimated incident cases from IARC's GLOBOCAN 2012 to assess the validity of GlobalData's epidemiological forecast and found the two to be in accordance.

Scope

The Melanoma EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for melanoma of the skin in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Australia). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of melanoma of the skin, segmented by age (in 10-year age groups, beginning at 20 years and ending at =80 years), sex, and cancer stage at diagnosis (American Joint Commission on Cancer [AJCC] stages I, II, III, and IV). The forecast also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases and the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases segmented by genetic aberrations (BRAF and c-KIT) in these markets.

The melanoma epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

Reasons To Buy

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global melanoma market.

Quantify patient populations in the global melanoma market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for melanoma therapeutics in each of the markets covered.



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1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4

1.1 List of Tables 6

1.2 List of Figures 7

2 Introduction 8

2.1 Catalyst 8

2.2 Related Reports 9

2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 9

3 Epidemiology 10

3.1 Disease Background 10

3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 11

3.3 Global Trends 13

3.3.1 US 14

3.3.2 5EU 14

3.3.3 Japan and Australia 14

3.4 Forecast Methodology 15

3.4.1 Sources Used 17

3.4.2 Sources Not Used 22

3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 22

3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Melanoma (2013-2023) 26

3.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma 26

3.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma 27

3.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma Skin Cancer 29

3.5.4 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence Rates 31

3.5.5 Pathological Stage at Diagnosis 33

3.5.6 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma Skin Cancer 34

3.5.7 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma Skin Cancer by Genetic Aberrations 36

3.6 Discussion 38

3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 38

3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 39

3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 40

4 Appendix 41

4.1 Bibliography 41

4.2 About the Authors 46

4.2.1 Epidemiologists 46

4.2.2 Reviewers 46

4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 48

4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 48

4.3 About GlobalData 49

4.4 About EpiCast 49

4.5 Disclaimer 50

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma of the Skin, Ages ?20 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2013-2023 27

Figure 2: Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma of the Skin, Both Sexes, N, 2013 29

Figure 3: Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma of the Skin (N), 2013 31

Figure 4 : Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence Rate (ASR) of Melanoma of the Skin, Men and Women, Ages ?20 Years, 2013 32

Figure 5: Distribution of Incident Cases of Melanoma Skin Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis (%) 34

Figure 6: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma of the Skin, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013-2023 36

Figure 7: Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma of the Skin with BRAF Mutations, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, 2013 37

Figure 8: Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma of the Skin with NRAS Mutations, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, 2013 38

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Melanoma of the Skin 12

Table 2: Melanoma of the Skin Staging Definition Equivalencies 16

Table 3: 8MM, Sources of Melanoma of the Skin Incidence Data 17

Table 4: 8MM, Sources of Melanoma of the Skin Incident Cases by Pathological Stage at Diagnosis Data 18

Table 5: 8MM, Sources of Melanoma of the Skin Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Stage Data 19

Table 6: 8MM, Sources of Melanoma of the Skin Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Genetic Aberration 19

Table 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma of the Skin, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N, Select Years 2013-2023 26

Table 8: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma of the Skin, N (Row%), 2013 28

Table 9: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma of the Skin, Ages ?20 Years, N (Row %), 2013 30

Table 10: Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence Rate (ASR) of Melanoma of the Skin, Men and Women, Ages ?20 Years, 2013 32

Table 11: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma of the Skin, Both Sexes, ?20 years, N, Select Years 2013-2023 35

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