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Global Luxury Retailing - Verdict Sector Report

Global Luxury Retailing - Verdict Sector Report


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Executive Summary

The era of double digit global luxury expenditure growth continues to slip away, with a second year of much softer rises in 2014 up 3.8%. As a result of a slowdown in China - caused by a shift in purchasing behaviour and crackdown on luxury gifting - political problems in Russia and recovering economies in much of Europe, the global luxury market has entered a more modest growth period.

Key Findings

Make informed regional investment decisions with luxury expenditure forecasts to 2020 based on inputs including the number of wealthy individuals.

Choose which product sectors to prioritise and grow based on 2015 and 2020 sales forecasts across five sectors and their sub categories.

Discover the size of the online luxury market and pureplay market in 2015 and forecasts for 2020 to aid investment decisions in digital operations.

Understand the variety of luxury shopper personas as well as shopping habit differences by region and learn how best to target these consumer groups.

Use our market share data to analyse which rivals are struggling, allowing you to gain a competitive advantage and build a strategy to steal share.

Synopsis

Asia Pacific will continue to be the driving force of the market, aiding luxury expenditure to grow by 40.5% in the five years to 2020. While geographically smaller, we expect to see a higher level of interest in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand which will drive spend in South East Asia by 76.3% in the next five years.

The importance of personal appearance and looks in China has fallen in 2014, partly due to a gradual shift in consumer sentiment toward wanting more subtle luxury and being less driven to display wealth or enhance appearance through the products they buy. Smaller discreet luxury players like Elie Saab and Paul & Joe should capitalise on this trend.

As new luxury players launch online and introduce country dedicated websites, online luxury spend will grow by 25.3% in 2015 to a 7.1% share of total spend. The online pureplays market will outperform at 35.4% as My Theresa, Yoox, and Far Fetch continue to grow their branded offers allowing them to reach a larger customer base.

Reasons To Buy

Which regions/markets hold the most potential for the luxury sector and should I invest in them?

How have consumer spending habits changed in regions such as Western Europe, China and Russia, and how should I adapt my proposition to target them?

What is the size of the online luxury sector and how can I learn from existing luxury online pureplays and the online discounters?

Which retailers are gaining market share, and which are struggling to protect their share and why? How will market leader LVMH fare in 2015?

Which product categories are forecast to deliver the most robust growth? In what regions should luxury houses push diffusion lines?

1 Overview

2 Executive Summary

2.1 China causes luxury growth slowdown

2.2 Smaller brands support growth in 2014

2.3 Russia becomes a high risk market

2.4 Asia Pacific will continue to boost luxury spend over next five years

2.5 Southeast Asia will be fastest growing region

2.6 South Korea growth to outperform China in the next five years

2.7 Consumers in India and the US are becoming wealthier

2.8 Less branding and more exclusivity become essential for success in China

2.9 Mature luxury markets demand brand heritage and better value for money

2.1 Accessories will be the fastest performing category

2.11 Online's share of luxury goods market forecast to reach over EUR23bn in 2015

2.12 Luxury online pureplays will continue to gain traction

2.13 Luxury brands must seize opportunities in airports to drive future spend

3 Recommendations

3.1 Regional opportunities

3.2 Sector opportunities

3.3 Airport formats must be invested in

3.4 A multichannel proposition is essential to improve accessibility

3.5 Recognise different consumers' motivations for purchasing by region

3.6 Tailor proposition to better cater to different consumer personas

4 Market Size

4.1 Market definition

4.1.1 Categories covered

4.1.2 Regions covered

4.1.3 Players covered

4.2 Expenditure Trends

4.2.1 Slowdown in China contributes to softening in growth in 2014

4.3 Regional breakdown

4.3.1 Following year-on-year share declines, Americas picks back up

4.4 Europe

4.4.1 Domestic consumers keep market growth low

4.4.2 European country breakdown

4.5 Americas

4.5.1 Growth in Latin America slows, while retailers in the US see a pick-up

4.5.2 Americas regional breakdown

4.5.3 Latin America suffers slowdown

4.6 Asia Pacific

4.6.1 Asia Pacific continues new era of single digit growth

4.6.2 Asia Pacific regional breakdown

4.6.3 China

4.6.4 Japan

4.6.5 Asia Pacific excluding Japan and China

4.7 The Middle East and Others

4.7.1 Growth exceeds total market in 2015, rising 5.6%

4.8 Luxury goods market segmentation

4.8.1 Accessories continues to drive luxury expenditure

4.8.2 Watches limit growth in watches and jewellery division

4.8.3 Accessories

4.8.4 Perfumes and cosmetics

4.8.5 Watches and jewellery

5 Market Forecast

5.1 Expenditure Trends

5.1.1 Asia Pacific excluding Japan to drive growth in the next five years

5.1.2 Luxury market drivers and inhibitors

5.2 Regional breakdown

5.2.1 Europe is forecast to lose the most share by 2020

5.3 Europe

5.3.1 Europe to gain over EUR30bn in luxury spend in five years to 2020

5.3.2 European country breakdown

5.4 Americas

5.4.1 Rising wealth in Latin and North America will drive market growth

5.5 Asia Pacific

5.5.1 Asia Pacific to achieve the highest growth in five years

5.5.2 sia Pacific regional breakdown

5.5.3 China

5.5.4 Japan

5.5.5 Asia Pacific excluding Japan and China

5.6 The Middle East and Others

5.6.1 Region to outperform total global luxury growth by 3.7 percentage points in the next five years

5.7 Luxury goods market segmentation

5.7.1 Accessories

5.7.2 Perfumes and cosmetics

5.7.3 Watches and jewellery

6 Trends

6.1 Online luxury market set to reach almost EUR50bn by 2020

6.1.1 Online's share of luxury sales forecast to more than triple in 10 years

6.1.2 Expanding online pureplays drive the market

6.1.3 Online discounters will grow in popularity in weaker economic climates

6.2 Luxury travel retail

6.2.1 Rising passenger numbers and consumer wealth lure luxury brands to airports

6.2.2 Asia Pacific drives luxury airport spend, both now and in the future

6.2.3 Luxury retail success is driven by the consumer, not the market

6.2.4 Beauty will remain the most desirable sector

6.2.5 Spend on clothing remains small, but its share of spend will grow

6.2.6 Diffusion brands should be made more accessible as low cost carriers broaden traveller base

6.3 Consumer sentiment and spending habits

6.3.1 Europe

6.3.2 Asia

6.3.3 The US, Latin America and the UAE

6.4 Luxury shopper personas

6.4.1 The ostentatious consumer and the gift giver

6.4.2 The trend setter and the loyal follower

6.5 Brands must strike the right balance between accessibility and exclusivity

6.5.1 Young luxury brands should seek a balance between the two

6.5.2 Limited ranges boost exclusivity...

6.5.3 Burberry succeeds in maintaining a good balance between accessibility and exclusivity

7 Market Shares

7.1 Leading luxury players

7.1.1 Richemont makes the greatest share gains in five years to 2015

7.2 Winners and losers

7.2.1 Smaller players

7.3 Operating statistics

7.3.1 Revenue

7.4 Operating margin

7.5 Store presence

8 Methodology

8.1 Building up the market size

8.2 Forecasts

8.3 Exchange rates

8.4 Datamonitor's wealth data

8.4.1 Definitions

8.4.2 Global Wealth Model methodology

9 Appendix

9.1 Categories covered

9.2 Regions covered

9.3 Players covered

9.4 About Verdict Retail

9.5 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Global retail expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn), 2010-15e

Figure 2: Share of expenditure on luxury products by region (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 3: European expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2010-15e

Figure 4: Mulberry UK revenue y-o-y change (%) and prices in continuity lines (GBP), 2014

Figure 5: European country breakdown (%), 2015e

Figure 6: European country breakdown (EURbn) and year-on-year growth (%), 2014 and 2015e

Figure 7: Luxury expenditure in Russia (EURbn) and year-on-year growth (%), 2014 and 2015e

Figure 8: Americas expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2010-15e

Figure 9: Americas regional breakdown (%), 2015e

Figure 10: Americas regional breakdown (EURbn) and year-on- year growth (%), 2014 and 2015e

Figure 11: Major new developments in Brazil and Mexico, 2014 and 2015

Figure 12: Asia Pacific expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn), 2010-15e

Figure 13: Inhibitors of growth across Asia Pacific in 2014

Figure 14: Asia Pacific regional breakdown (%), 2015e

Figure 15: Asia Pacific regional breakdown (EURbn) and year-on-year growth (%), 2014 and 2015e

Figure 16: China expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn), 2010-15e

Figure 17: Japanese expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn), 2010-15e

Figure 18: Asia excluding Japan and China expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn), 2010-15e

Figure 19: The Middle East and Others expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn), 2010-15e

Figure 20: Luxury goods category splits (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 21: Accessories category breakdown (%), 2015e

Figure 22: Accessories category breakdown (EURbn) and y-o-y growth (%), 2014 and 2015e

Figure 23: Perfumes and cosmetics category breakdown (%), 2015e

Figure 24: Perfumes and cosmetics category breakdown (EURbn) and y-o-y growth (%), 2014 and 2015e

Figure 25: Watches and jewellery category breakdown (%), 2015e

Figure 26: Watches and jewellery category breakdown (EURbn) and y-o-y growth (%), 2014 and 2015e

Figure 27: Global retail expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Figure 28: Luxury market drivers and inhibitors, 2015-20

Figure 29: Share of expenditure on luxury products by region (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 30: European expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Figure 31: European country breakdown (%), 2020e

Figure 32: European country breakdown (EURbn) and five year growth (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 33: Luxury expenditure in Russia (EURbn) and five year growth (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 34: Americas expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Figure 35: Americas regional breakdown (%), 2020e

Figure 36: Americas regional breakdown (EURbn) and five year growth (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 37: Asia Pacific expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Figure 38: Asia Pacific regional breakdown (%), 2020e

Figure 39: Asia Pacific regional breakdown (EURbn) and five year growth (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 40: China's expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Figure 41: Japanese expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Figure 42: Asia excluding Japan and China expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Figure 43: The Middle East and Others expenditure on luxury products (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Figure 44: Luxury goods category splits (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 45: Accessories category breakdown (%), 2020e

Figure 46: Accessories category breakdown (EURbn) and five year growth (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 47: Perfumes and cosmetics category breakdown (%), 2020e

Figure 48: Perfumes and cosmetics category breakdown (EURbn) and five year growth (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 49: Watches and jewellery category breakdown (%), 2020e

Figure 50: Watches and jewellery category breakdown (EURbn) and five year growth (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 51: Online's share of global expenditure on branded luxury goods (%), 2010, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 52: Online expenditure on branded luxury goods (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Figure 53: Strengths and weaknesses of luxury online propositions, 2014

Figure 54: Global luxury expenditure through online pureplays (EURbn), 2014, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 55: Growing luxury pureplays threaten Net-a-Porter's leading market share, 2014

Figure 56: FarFetch's boutique finder, 2014

Figure 57: Major online luxury outlet sites in each region, 2014

Figure 58: Updated retail offers at Shenzhen, Heathrow and Jakarta airports

Figure 59: Airports to target in Asia, 2014

Figure 60: Airport presence in India

Figure 61: Popular countries for Chinese consumers to visit

Figure 62: Jo Malone destination fragrance format, Heathrow T5

Figure 63: Diffusion brands to increase brand accessibility

Figure 64: Consumer sentiment and attitudes toward luxury in Europe, 2014

Figure 65: Consumer sentiment and attitudes toward luxury in Asia, 2014

Figure 66: Consumer sentiment and attitudes toward luxury in the Rest of World, 2014

Figure 67: The percentage of consumers who view looks and appearance as important/very important (%), 2014

Figure 68: Prada Double Bag craftsmanship video, 2014

Figure 69: The percentage of consumers who view being fashionable as important/very important (%), 2014

Figure 70: Burberry runway to reality, 2014

Figure 71: Percentage of consumers that consider themselves as savers or spenders (%), 2014

Figure 72: Luxury shopper personas: the ostentatious consumer and the gift giver, 2014

Figure 73: A letter from Tom Ford, 2014

Figure 74: Luxury shopper personas: the connoisseur and the bargain hunter, 2014

Figure 75: The Burberry Trench Eyewear Collection, 2014

Figure 76: Luxury shopper personas: the trend setter and the loyal follower, 2014

Figure 77: Accessibility versus exclusivity, 2014

Figure 78: Accessible and exclusive brands, 2014

Figure 79: Celebrities in Burberry's personalised poncho, 2014

Figure 80: Market shares of leading luxury players (%), 2015e on 2010

Figure 81: Winners and losers (percentage point change), 2015e on 2014

Figure 82: Market shares of smaller global luxury players (%), 2015e

Figure 83: Revenue of leading luxury players (EURm), 2015e and 2010

Figure 84: Group operating margins of leading luxury players (%), 2013/14

Table 1: Global luxury market definition, 2014

Table 2: Global retail expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn/USDbn), 2010-15e

Table 3: Retail expenditure on luxury products by region (EURbn), 2010-15e 5e

Table 4: Year-on-year growth of retail expenditure on luxury products by region in euro terms(%), 2010-15e

Table 5: Retail expenditure on luxury products by region (USDbn), 2010-15e

Table 6: Year-on-year growth of retail expenditure on luxury products by region in dollar terms(%), 2010-15e

Table 7: European expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2010-15e

Table 8: Americas expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2010-15e

Table 9: Asia Pacific expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2010-15e

Table 10: China expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2010-15e

Table 11: Japanese expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn/USDbn), 2010-15e

Table 12: Asia excluding Japan and China expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn/USDbn), 2010-15e

Table 13: The Middle East and Others expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn/USDbn), 2010-15e

Table 14: Global expenditure on luxury goods by product category (EURbn), 2010-15e

Table 15: Year-on-year growth of global expenditure on luxury goods by product category (%), 2010-15e

Table 16: Global retail expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2015e-20e

Table 17: Retail expenditure on luxury products by region (EURbn), 2015e-20e

Table 18: Year-on-year growth of retail expenditure on luxury products by region in euro terms(%), 2015e-20e

Table 19: Retail expenditure on luxury products by region (USDbn), 2015e-20e

Table 20: Year-on-year growth of retail expenditure on luxury products by region in dollar terms (%), 2015e-20e

Table 21: European expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2015e-20e

Table 22: Americas expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2015e-20e

Table 23: Asia Pacific expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2015e-20e

Table 24: China's expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2015e-20e

Table 25: Japanese expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2015e-20e

Table 26: Asia excluding Japan and China expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2015e-20e

Table 27: The Middle East and Others expenditure on luxury products (EURbn/USDbn), 2015e-20e

Table 28: Global expenditure on luxury goods by product category (EURbn), 2015e and 2020e

Table 29: Online expenditure on luxury goods (EURbn/USDbn), 2014, 2015e and 2020e

Table 30: Airport passenger numbers (million) and growth rate (%), by region, 2010-14e

Table 31: The percentage of consumers who agree/strongly agree and disagree/strongly disagree that their disposable income is increasing (%), 2014

Table 32: Leading luxury houses' global market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 33: Leading luxury houses by revenue (EURm), 2010-15e

Table 34: Leading luxury houses by revenue growth (%), 2010-15e

Table 35: Leading luxury houses' stores (numbers), financial year 2013/14

Table 36: Kering directly operated stores (numbers), financial year 2013

Table 37: Global luxury market definition, 2014

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