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Menswear Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report

Menswear Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report


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Executive Summary

Following stronger results from the likes of Next, Jacamo, Ted Baker and French Connection in H1 2014, we have forecast an upturn in menswear expenditure this year, rising 3.0%. While inflation is sticking around, due to costs throughout the supply chain remaining stubbornly high, volumes will also be more robust. Moreover, fashion and willingness to buy more frequently will boost future spend.

Key Findings

Effectively target shoppers by understanding the key drivers for each age group, average spend per head and estimated population change for 2014-19.

Grow your sales by understanding the impact a lack of choice has on your shoppers, and re-evaluate your strategy using detailed customer profiling.

Use our positioning map and analysis of the menswear market to identify underserved sectors, and how best to target them.

Develop and improve your multichannel strategy and identify weaknesses in your own offer through our analysis of the male online shopping journey.

Synopsis

With competition deepening, many menswear retailers need to gain a competitive advantage by building their ranges of non-core product areas - growing destination appeal by serving niche customer groups. Incorporation of collections such as big & tall, tailoring and sportswear must be considered as opportunities for range expansion.

With the 65+s having the lowest spend per head in 2014 at GBP385.68, but the highest population growth over the next five years, retailers will continue to miss out on incremental spend unless they can drive up average basket size. If the 65+s spent the same amount on menswear as the current 55?64s, their total spend on menswear would grow by GBP144m.

The menswear online clothing market is forecast to grow by 178.1% in the five years to 2014, as spend shifts from more traditional shopping methods. But with competition online mounting it is imperative that retailers understand the online customer journey to ensure propositions are well tailored and shoppers make return visits.

Reasons To Buy

How will my core customer change in the future, how will I need to adapt to serve them better, how much do they spend now, and how can this increase?

How much will the online menswear market be worth in 2014 and 2019? What male online shopping habits do I need to be aware of to drive future spend?

Is the size of my core demographic going to grow over the next five years, and if not, which age groups should I be targeting?

How do I need to diversify my offer in order to adapt to the changing trends in menswear?

What will the size of the menswear market be in 2019, and what will dictate its course over the coming years?

1 Outlook

1.1 Overview

1.2 Main Conclusions

1.2.1 Menswear spend up 3.9% to GBP10.8bn in 2015

1.2.2 Fashion and willingness to buy more frequently boost future spend

1.2.3 Gaps in the market must be targeted to maximise growth opportunities

1.2.4 Spend per head will grow by over GBP100 to GBP526.35 in 2020

1.2.5 Encouraging 65+s to spend just an extra GBP19 a year can add GBP98m to menswear market

1.2.6 Introducing new product categories can drive spend and differentiate propositions

1.2.7 Investment in big & tall ranges would improve differentiation and satisfy an underserved market segment

1.2.8 Online menswear spend to grow 162.2% in five years to 2015

1.2.9 Understanding the online shopper journey is crucial

1.2.10 M&S loses out to stronger UK menswear rivals

2 Recommendations

2.1 Overview

2.2 More Choice and Convenience are Vital

2.2.1 Strategic opportunities

2.2.2 Invest in niche categories to build loyalty among smaller consumer groups

2.2.3 Understand online shopping habits and customer journey

3 Market Size

3.1 Overview

3.2 Market Definition

3.3 Clothing Market Sector Breakdown

3.4 Menswear

3.5 Menswear Subsector Performance

3.6 Market Price Segmentation

3.7 Spend per Head

4 Market Forecast

4.1 Overview

4.2 Market Definition

4.3 Expenditure Trends

4.3.1 Menswear will outperform all other clothing sectors

4.3.2 Subsector performance

4.4 Spend per Head

4.5 Quarterly Expenditure Forecasts

4.5.1 2014

4.5.2 2015

4.5.3 2016/17

4.5.4 Menswear

5 Channel Shares

5.1 Overview

5.2 Clothing Specialists and General Merchandisers are the Winners

5.3 Online and Offline Menswear Expenditure

6 Market Shares

6.1 Overview

6.2 Menswear Market Shares

6.3 Winners and losers

6.4 Smaller menswear players

6.5 Key Operating Statistics

7 Sector Trends

7.1 Overview

7.2 Big & Tall Shopper Profile and Spending Habits

7.2.1 Big & tall shopper profile

7.2.2 Most shopped retailers for big & tall clothing

7.2.3 Preferred big & tall destinations

7.2.4 Convenience, price and choice encourage online purchases

7.3 Male Shopper Profile

7.4 Loyalty drivers

7.5 Shopping Habits by Age Segmentation

7.6 Importance of Fashion

7.7 Online Shopper Journey

7.8 Menswear online shopping journey

8 Methodology

8.1 Methodology: Outlook

8.1.1 Sales density calculation

8.2 Methodology: Market Size

8.2.1 Market size

8.2.2 Market shares

8.3 Methodology: Market Forecast

8.3.1 Market size

8.3.2 Market Forecast

8.4 Methodology: Channel Shares

8.5 Methodology: Market Shares

8.6 Methodology: Sector Trends

8.6.1 Market size

8.6.2 Market shares

9 Appendix

9.1 Appendix: Market Shares

9.1.1 Definitions

9.2 About Verdict Retail

9.3 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Sector shares of the clothing market (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 2: Menswear expenditure (GBPbn) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e

Figure 3: Three month average weekly earnings growth and inflation year-on-year (%), April 2012 to April 2015

Figure 4: UK unemployment (millions) and share of economically active (%), 2010-20

Figure 5: Menswear inflation/deflation, volume and value growth (%), 2005-15e

Figure 6: New Look menswear, 2015

Figure 7: boohooMAN, 2015

Figure 8: Menswear positioning map, 2015

Figure 9: Whistles men's fascia, 2015

Figure 10: Menswear spend per head (GBP), 2010-15e

Figure 11: Spend per head on total menswear, outerwear and underwear (GBP), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 12: Spend per head (GBP) by age segmentation, 2015e

Figure 13: Menswear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 14: Change in clothing expenditure (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 15: Bonmarch menswear collection, 2015

Figure 16: : Menswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 17: Menswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 18: Men's outerwear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 19: Men's outerwear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 20: Men's outerwear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 21: Men's underwear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 22: Men's underwear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 23: Men's underwear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 24: Menswear spend per head (GBP), 2015e-20e

Figure 25: Spend per head on total menswear, outerwear and underwear (GBP), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 26: Spend per head (GBP) by age segmentation, 2015e

Figure 27: Menswear sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 28: Menswear versus clothing & footwear year-on-year change (%), quarterly, 2012-16e

Figure 29: UK menswear channel shares (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 30: UK menswear channel expenditure growth (%), 2020e on 2015e

Figure 31: UK menswear change in channel share (percentage point), 2015e-20e

Figure 32: UK menswear online and offline channel shares (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 33: UK menswear online and offline channel expenditure growth (%), 2020e on 2015e

Figure 34: Top 15 menswear market shares (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 35: M&S menswear, 2015

Figure 36: Menswear market share winners and losers (percentage point), 2015e on 2014

Figure 37: Spending habits of big & tall shoppers by age, 2015

Figure 38: Favourite leisure activities of big & tall shoppers (%), 2015

Figure 39: Big & tall menswear shopper profile versus menswear shopper profile by age (%), 2015

Figure 40: Big & tall menswear shopper profile versus menswear shopper profile by socioeconomic group (%), 2015

Figure 41: Ted Baker T for Tall, 2015

Figure 42: Preferred type of retailer by big & tall consumers when shopping for clothing (%), 2015

Figure 43: Percentage of big & tall consumers who bought big & tall clothing over the past 12 months by retailer (%), 2015

Figure 44: Where big & tall shoppers prefer to buy their clothing (%), 2015

Figure 45: Benefits to extending a core offer versus investing in a specific big & tall range, 2015

Figure 46: Big & tall online product display on core menswear models, 2015

Figure 47: Why big & tall shoppers prefer to buy from a big & tall specialist (%), 2015

Figure 48: Flintoff by Jacamo, June 2015

Figure 49: Preferred locations of big & tall consumers when shopping for clothing (%), 2015

Figure 50: Characteristics of the online big & tall shopper (%), 2015

Figure 51: Male clothing shopper profile, 2014

Figure 52: Male clothing shopper penetration by age group (%), 2014

Figure 53: Male clothing shopper profile (%), 2014

Figure 54: Opportunities for retailers to target lower penetration visitor segments, 2014

Figure 55: Men's clothing retailers' visitor share (%), 2014

Figure 56: Drivers of loyalty for male clothing shoppers (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 57: Men's most visited clothing retailers' loyalty scores (%), 2014

Figure 58: Menswear market age segmentation summary, 2014e

Figure 59: Menswear spend and trends for the 16-24s, 2014e

Figure 60: Benefits to extending a core offer versus investing in a specific big & tall range, 2015

Figure 61: Menswear spend and trends for the 35-44s, 2014e

Figure 62: Menswear spend and trends for the 45-54s, 2014e

Figure 63: Where big & tall shoppers prefer to buy their clothing (%), 2015

Figure 64: Menswear spend and trends for the 65+s, 2014e

Figure 65: UK men describing their appearance as important (%), 2014

Figure 66: Men's toiletries expenditure (GBPm), 2009-14e

Figure 67: UK men who state that being fashionable is important to them (%), 2014

Figure 68: Whistles menswear AW14, 2014

Figure 69: London collections: Men SS15, 2014

Figure 70: Burberry AW14 catwalk front row, 2014

Figure 71: Zara menswear AW14, 2014

Figure 72: Topman's personal shopping department, Oxford Street London, 2014

Figure 73: Blue Inc 'The Wingman' newsletter, July 2014

Figure 74: Mr Porter's essentials list, 2014

Figure 75: Characteristics of the UK online menswear market, 2014

Figure 76: Menswear online clothing expenditure (GBPm), 2009-14e

Figure 77: Online share of the menswear market (GBPbn), 2009-19e

Figure 78: Penetration of male online shoppers who buy clothing & footwear (%), 2014

Figure 79:

Figure 80: Profile of male online clothing & footwear shoppers by socioeconomic group (%), 2014

Figure 81: Proportion of menswear purchases bought by women (%), 2014

Figure 82: boohoo.com His and Hers, 2014

Figure 83: Male drivers of online spend for menswear (%), 2014

Figure 84: Menswear online spend per head (GBP), 2014e

Figure 85: Top 10 most visited clothing & footwear retailers online by males and their conversion rate (%), 2014

Figure 86: Time spent browsing by male online menswear shoppers before purchasing an item (%), 2014

Figure 87: Device usage by males shopping online for menswear (%), 2014

Figure 88: Most frequently used delivery method for online male clothing & footwear shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 89: Other delivery methods used by male online clothing & footwear shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 90: Return choices for clothing & footwear online purchases (%), 2014

Figure 91: Reasons for returning a clothing & footwear purchase (%), 2014

Table 1: Menswear market definition, 2015

Table 2: Summary of clothing sectors, 2015e

Table 3: 10 Menswear market value (GBPm) and growth drivers (%), 2005-15e

Table 4: Menswear sales breakdown and trends in context of clothing (GBPm), 2005-15e

Table 5: Menswear market definition, 2015

Table 6: Menswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 7: Men's outerwear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector,2015e-20e

Table 8: Men's underwear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector,2015e-20e

Table 9: Menswear expenditure (GBPm) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Table 10: UK menswear channels of distribution expenditure (GBPm) and share (%), 2014, 2015eand 2020e

Table 11: Menswear Top 10 specialist market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 12 Menswear non-specialist market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 13 Smaller menswear retailers' market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 14 Menswear retailers' key UK operating statistics, 2015/16e

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