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Department Store Retailing in the UK - Verdict Channel Report

Department Store Retailing in the UK - Verdict Channel Report


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Executive Summary

Following strong results from John Lewis and House of Fraser, we forecast department store expenditure to rise by 3.7% in 2014 - also aided by luxury players' on-going appeal among tourists. Shoppers continue to feel more confident about buying into discretionary sectors such as clothing and homewares, driving volume growth in the market.

Key Findings

Benchmark your performance against your rivals using our market shares and major competitors analysis.

Gain insight into the current state of play in UK department store retailing using our market size analysis.

Use our market forecast analysis to help shape your business plan out to 2019.

Update yourself on current industry trends and inform your future business decisions using our trends analysis and recommendations.

Synopsis

The number of UK consumers who shop regularly at department stores has fallen by 5.9 million in the five years to 2014, with the percentage of the population using department stores dropping from 49.0% to 35.7%. The closure of many TJ Hughes stores and a poor general merchandise performance from M&S have contributed to the decline.

The online department store market is forecast to grow by 71.9% in the five years to 2019, accounting for 26.7% of the market. The channel still represents a major opportunity for retailers as the convenience of shopping across both physical stores and online increases in popularity and the frequency of consumer online purchases rises.

While M&S still has the largest share of the market in 2014, by a lead of 2.9 percentage points, it continues to be eroded by stronger-performing rivals such as John Lewis, while its clothing and homewares sales have been hit hardest by Next.

Reasons To Buy

Who are the top performing department stores in terms of UK turnover, profitability and market share?

Which retail sectors are growing and require more focus, and which, if any, are declining in popularity?

Who are my key customers, and how can I broaden my appeal to attract underserved demographics?

How can I strengthen my online proposition and make it stand out from the competition to increase my online market share?

How has the premium segment changed over the past five years and what does the market hold in the next five years?

1 Overview

2 Outlook

2.1 Channel growth reaches 3.7% in 2014

2.2 Number of department store shoppers falls by 5.9 million since 2009

2.3 Appeal of heavy discounting on the wane

2.4 John Lewis drives market expenditure

2.5 Market leader Marks & Spencer continues to lose share

2.6 Luxury department stores continue to excel

2.7 24.9% expenditure growth forecast between 2014 and 2019

2.8 Housing market recovery will increase demand for homewares

2.9 Online department store market to reach GBP6.0bn in 2019

3 Recommendations

3.1 Build destination status to minimise competitive threat

3.2 Drive footfall and full price sales

3.3 Recoup lost department store shoppers

3.4 Target tourism spend

3.5 Better tailor health & beauty ranges to protect sales from rivals

3.6 Further integrate online and offline channels

4 Market Size

4.1 Market definition

4.2 Department store expenditure trends

4.2.1 Spend via department stores will rise GBP3.1bn in five years to 2014

4.2.2 Market to become deflationary in 2014

4.2.3 John Lewis drives the market overall

4.2.4 Channel outperforms total retail and the non-food sector

4.3 Share of non-food expenditure continues to grow

4.3.1 Affluent customer base boosts department stores' share of UK non-food sales

4.4 Department store subsector expenditure trends

4.4.1 Weaker expenditure growth for home-related sectors

4.4.2 Balance between private label and branded clothing ranges is key

4.4.3 Department stores no longer largest channel in homewares market

4.4.4 Health & beauty remains resilient

4.4.5 Electricals becomes a star performer, but only for John Lewis

4.4.6 Department stores achieve furniture & floorcoverings growth as UK housing market recovers

4.5 Online market

4.5.1 Online department store market to reach GBP3.5bn in 2014

4.6 Space growth

4.6.1 Muted space growth strengthens sales densities

5 Market Forecast

5.1 Department store expenditure trends

5.1.1 Channel to exceed GBP22bn in 2019

5.1.2 Investment in multichannel operations now more important than rolling out physical stores

5.1.3 Focus on driving full price sales will be essential

5.1.4 Market to become deflationary

5.2 Expenditure breakdown

5.2.1 Premium share will grow the most over the next five years

5.2.2 Competition in the midmarket will intensify as retailers continue to struggle

5.2.3 Value department store relevance will diminish

5.3 Department store subsector expenditure trends

5.3.1 73% of additional department store spend to go on clothing & footwear

5.3.2 Clothing & footwear will continue to have most impact on the channel as share grows

5.3.3 Homewares expenditure to grow by GBP410m

5.4 Online market

5.4.1 Online department store expenditure to increase by GBP2.5bn by 2019

6 Market Shares

6.1 John Lewis now within 3.0 percentage points of market leader M&S

6.2 Sole value department store TJ Hughes loses share and relevance to shoppers

6.3 Winners and losers

6.4 Online market shares

6.4.1 John Lewis dominates online market

6.4.2 M&S must make online investment worthwhile

6.4.3 Online winners and losers

7 Major Competitors

7.1 Sales growth for most players in 2013/14

7.2 Expansion takes back seat in 2013/14 for most retailers

7.3 Premium players lead the way in sales growth

7.4 Premium department stores' profits take a tumble

7.5 Leader M&S's space productivity falls

7.6 Highest sales density growth for premium players

8 Trends

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Where Britain shops: department stores

8.2.1 Key findings

8.2.2 Department store share of shoppers

8.2.3 Profiles of department store shoppers

8.2.4 Sector penetration - which sectors shoppers use department stores for

8.2.5 Share of shopper - of Top 10 department store retailers

8.2.6 Clothing sector analysis

8.2.7 Electricals sector analysis

8.2.8 Footwear sector analysis

8.2.9 Homewares sector analysis

8.2.10 Personal care sector analysis

8.2.11 Department store shopper profiles

8.3 Online department store shopper profile and journey

8.3.1 Key attributes department stores must know to grab a larger slice of online spend

8.3.2 Integrating online and offline remains imperative as shoppers use both concurrently

8.3.3 UK online department store market to equate to GBP3.5n by 2014

8.3.4 Department stores attract a wide customer base online

8.3.5 Online breakdown by sector

8.3.6 Convenience is the key driver of shopping online

8.3.7 Achieving a high conversion rate is instrumental for department stores

8.3.8 Online department store shopper journey

8.4 Department stores must protect health & beauty sales from mounting rivals

8.4.1 Department stores' health & beauty sales have grown by 32.7% in the last five years

8.4.2 Department stores continue to play catch up to the grocers and general merchandisers

8.4.3 Department stores must understand their health & beauty shoppers to satisfy their needs

8.4.4 Debenhams holds the highest visitor share in 2014

8.4.5 Loyalty drivers

8.5 Importance of tourism for department stores

8.5.1 Department stores benefit from growing tourism levels in the UK

8.5.2 Overseas visitor spend on retail will reach GBP16.6bn by 2018

8.5.3 Department stores must target visitors from five key markets including Brazil and China

8.5.4 Opportunity for all UK department stores to benefit from overseas spend

9 Methodology

10 Appendix

10.1 About Verdict Retail

10.2 Disclaimer

Figure 1: Department store expenditure (GBPm) and y-o-y change (%), 2004-14e

Figure 2: Department store inflation/deflation, volume and value growth (%), 2004-14e

Figure 3: Y-o-y change in department store sales including and excluding John Lewis (%), 2004-14e

Figure 4: Y-o-y change in department store sales including and excluding M&S (%), 2004-14e

Figure 5: Department store sales change versus total retail and non-food retail (%), 2004-14e

Figure 6: Department store market shares of retail and non-food sales (%), 2009-14e

Figure 7: Department store sales mix by product sector (%), 2014e

Figure 8: Online department store expenditure (GBPm) and y-o-y change (%), 2009-14e

Figure 9: Department store expenditure (GBPbn) and y-o-y change (%), 2014e-19e

Figure 10: Department store sales change versus total retail and non-food retail (%), 2014e-19e

Figure 11: Sector annual average inflation/deflation rates (%), 2014-19e

Figure 12: Online department store expenditure (GBPm) and y-o-y change (%), 2014e-19e

Figure 13: Department store Top 12 market shares (%), 2009 and 2014e

Figure 14: Department store Top 12 market share winners and losers (percentage points), 2014e on 2013

Figure 15: Department store Top 12 online market shares (%), 2013 and 2014e

Figure 16: Department store Top 12 online market share winners and losers (percentage points), 2014e on 2013

Figure 17: Department store Top 12 y-o-y change in sales and space (%), 2013/14 on 2012/13

Figure 18: Department store Top 12 UK operating margins (%), 2012/13 on 2011/12

Figure 19: Department store Top 12 y-o-y change in sales density (%), 2013/14 on 2012/13

Figure 20: Department store Top 12 y-o-y changes in sales density (GBP/sq ft), 2013/14 on 2012/13

Figure 21: Department stores share of all UK shoppers (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 22: Department stores share of UK shoppers, penetration by region (%), 2014

Figure 23: Consumers using department stores, penetration by demographics (%), 2014

Figure 24: Profile of department store shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 25: Profile of male department store shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 26: Profile of female department store shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 27: What department store shoppers use department stores for (%), 2014

Figure 28: Department store retailer share of all consumers (%), 2014

Figure 29: Retailer share of all department store shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 30: Cross-sector department store retailer scores, 2014

Figure 31: Percentage of all department store shoppers using the channel for clothing (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 32: Percentage of all clothing shoppers using department stores for clothing (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 33: Demographic profile of all shoppers who use department stores for clothing (%), 2014

Figure 34: Demographic profile of all male shoppers who use department stores for clothing (%), 2014

Figure 35: Demographic profile of all female shoppers who use department stores for clothing (%), 2014

Figure 36: Retailer shares of all department store clothing shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 37: Retailer shares of all clothing shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 38: Percentage of all department store shoppers using the channel for electricals (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 39: Percentage of all electricals shoppers using department stores for electricals (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 40: Demographic profile of all shoppers who use department stores for electricals (%), 2014

Figure 41: Demographic profile of all male shoppers who use department stores for electricals (%), 2014

Figure 42: Demographic profile of all female shoppers who use department stores for electricals (%), 2014

Figure 43: Retailer shares of all department store electricals shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 44: Retailer shares of all electricals shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 45: Percentage of all department store shoppers using the channel for footwear (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 46: Percentage of all footwear shoppers using department stores for footwear (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 47: Demographic profile of all shoppers who use department stores for footwear (%), 2014

Figure 48: Demographic profile of all male shoppers who use department stores for footwear (%), 2014

Figure 49: Demographic profile of all female shoppers who use department stores for footwear (%), 2014

Figure 50: Retailer shares of all department store footwear shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 51: Retailer shares of all footwear shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 52: Percentage of all department store shoppers using the channel for homewares (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 53: Percentage of all homewares shoppers using department stores for homewares (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 54: Demographic profile of all shoppers who use department stores for homewares (%), 2014

Figure 55: Demographic profile of all male shoppers who use department stores for homewares (%), 2014

Figure 56: Demographic profile of all female shoppers who use department stores for homewares (%), 2014

Figure 57: Retailer shares of all department store homewares shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 58: Retailer shares of all homewares shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 59: Percentage of all department store shoppers using the channel for personal care (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 60: Percentage of all personal care shoppers using department stores for personal care (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 61: Demographic profile of all shoppers who use department stores for personal care (%), 2014

Figure 62: Demographic profile of all male shoppers who use department stores for personal care (%), 2014

Figure 63: Demographic profile of all female shoppers who use department stores for personal care (%), 2014

Figure 64: Retailer shares of all department store personal care shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 65: Retailer shares of all personal care shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 66: Demographic profile of all Beales shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 67: Demographic profile of all Debenhams shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 68: Demographic profile of all Fenwick shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 69: Demographic profile of all House of Fraser shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 70: Demographic profile of all John Lewis shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 71: Demographic profile of all Marks & Spencer shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 72: Demographic profile of all Selfridges shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 73: Characteristics of the UK online department store market, 2014

Figure 74: Department store online shopper process, 2014

Figure 75: Online share of the department store market (GBPbn), 2009-19e

Figure 76: Penetration of online department store shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 77: Profile of online department store shoppers by age (%), 2014

Figure 78: Profile of online department store shoppers by socioeconomic group (%), 2014

Figure 79: Percentage of male online shoppers for each department store (%), 2014

Figure 80: Percentage of female online shoppers for each department store (%), 2014

Figure 81: Percentage of 16-34s and 55+s for each department store online (%), 2014

Figure 82: Percentage of C2DE shoppers for each department store online (%), 2014

Figure 83: House of Fraser's True Fit size guide, 2014

Figure 84: Beales homewares offer online, 2014

Figure 85: Drivers of online spend for department stores (%), 2014

Figure 86: Online conversion rate for department stores (%), 2014

Figure 87: Beales' transactional website, 2014

Figure 88: Time that online department store shoppers spent browsing before purchasing an item (%), 2014

Figure 89: Time that online department store shoppers spent browsing before purchasing an item by sector (%), 2014

Figure 90: Chosen delivery method by online department store shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 91: Percentage of shoppers who make another purchase when collecting an online parcel instore (%), 2014

Figure 92: Health & beauty share of the department store market (GBPbn), 2009-19e

Figure 93: Winners and losers for health & beauty, 2014

Figure 94: Change in channel shares of the UK health & beauty market (percentage points), 2009 to 2014

Figure 95: Department store health & beauty shopper profile (%), 2014

Figure 96: House of Fraser's Woman & Home ageless beauty, 2014

Figure 97: Liberty Exclusive Beauty, 2014

Figure 98: Department stores' visitor share for health & beauty (%), 2014

Figure 99: Drivers of loyalty for shoppers visiting department stores for health & beauty (%), 2009 and 2014

Figure 100: Debenhams Beauty Club Reward Card, 2014

Figure 101: Total inbound visits to the UK (000), 2004-14e

Figure 102: Retail expenditure in the UK from international visitors (GBPm), 2008, 2013 and 2018e

Figure 103: Retail expenditure in the UK from top five target markets (GBPm), 2013 and 2018e

Figure 104: Tourist personas, 2014

Table 1: Department store market definition, 2014

Table 2: Department store expenditure sources of growth, 2004-14e

Table 3: Department store sales mix by product sector, 2009 and 2014e

Table 4: Department store share of overall sector sales (%), 2009 and 2014e

Table 5: Department stores, space and sales density, 2004-14e

Table 6: Department store expenditure sources of growth forecast, 2014e-19e

Table 7: Department store expenditure breakdown (%), 2009, 2014e and 2019e

Table 8: Department store sales mix by product sectors, 2014e and 2019e

Table 9: Department store share of overall sector sales (%), 2014e and 2019e

Table 10: Department store Top 12 market shares (%), 2009-14e

Table 11: Department store Top 12 key operating statistics, 2013/14

Table 12: Department store Top 12 store portfolios, 2013/14

Table 13: Percentage of UK consumers who visited department stores online, and who bought from the retailer online, and the conversion rate of those who then bought (%), 2014

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