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Nigeria: Intensifying Price Competition and Further Frequency Spectrum Acquisitions to Drive Telecom Market

Nigeria: Intensifying Price Competition and Further Frequency Spectrum Acquisitions to Drive Telecom Market


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Executive Summary

Summary

Pyramid Research estimates Nigeria's total telecom services revenue reached an estimated USD 7.9bn in 2015, a 17.0% decrease from the previous year. The decline in the overall market size is, however, purely due to devaluation of the Nigeria naira to the US dollar. In local currency, the total telecom services revenue actually grew by 2.1% from 2014, to reach N1.5trn in 2015. Mobile voice services revenue contributed the largest segment of overall revenue, at an estimated 70.0% in 2015. Over the next five years, overall services revenue is forecast to grow at a 2.0% CAGR in dollar terms (8.3% in local currency terms) to reach USD 8.7bn (N2.3trn) in 2020. This will largely be driven by rapid growth in mobile data revenue, which is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 12.6% between 2015 and 2020, to reach USD 3.1bn (or 35.5% of overall services revenue) in 2020.

Key Findings

MTN Nigeria is expected to maintain its market leading position in terms of total mobile subscriptions and revenue over the forecast period. However, the operator's market share will progressively decline due to increasing competitive pressure from other operators following significant network expansion and upgrades and increased price competition. In 2020, Pyramid Research forecasts MTN Nigeria's share in terms of total services revenue to reach 44.3% (from an estimated 50.1% in 2015) and a mobile subscriber share of 35.0% (from an estimated 41.2% in 2015).

Pyramid Research forecasts 3G subscriptions to reach 81.3m or 38.6% of the mobile subscription base in 2020 owing to increased price competition for mobile data as a result of the recent removal of regulation on minimum prices for mobile data services. LTE subscriptions will reach 9.3m, or 4.4% of all mobile subscriptions in 2020, driven by operators' focus on 4G launch as the NCC plans to auction spectrum allocations for 4G services in 2016.

Fixed services revenue contribution to overall revenue is expected to remain marginal over the forecast period (expected to reach 9.9% in 2020, from an estimated 8.4% in 2015); this is due to challenges related to the lack of fixed broadband infrastructure and low demand by the consumer segment given cheaper mobile service substitutes.

Synopsis

"Nigeria: Intensifying Price Competition and Further Frequency Spectrum Acquisitions to Drive Telecom Market" provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Nigeria today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into the telecom market of Nigeria, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Research's databases.It provides in-depth analysis of the following:

Nigeria in a regional context; a comparative review of market size and trends with that of other countries in the region.

Economic, demographic and political context in Nigeria.

The regulatory environment and trends; a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans and more.

A demand profile; analysis as well as forecasts and historical figures of service revenue from fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, data and pay-TV markets.

Service evolution; a look at the change in the breakdown of overall revenue by fixed, pay-TV and mobile sectors and by voice, data and video in the current year as well as the end of the forecast period.

An in-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony and broadband services, mobile voice, data services and pay-TV; a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by technology/platform as well as operator, average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.

Main opportunities; this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in the telecommunications market in Nigeria.

Reasons To Buy

Provides an overview of the Nigerian telecom market through a combination of quantitative and qualitative insights. The graphical information consists of more than 20 charts and tables derived from Pyramid Research's forecast products.

Build profitable growth strategies by leveraging the analysis which includes an examination of current player strategies and the future trends of the Nigerian telecommunications market.

Understand the factors behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Nigeria's mobile communications, fixed telephony, broadband and pay-TV markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares, to align product offerings and strategies to meet customer demand.

Gain insights on key telecom players in the market and their strategies to grow market share.

Explore novel opportunities to align your product strategies and offerings to meet customer requirements and succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Nigeria.

Executive summary

Market and competitor overview

Regional context

Economic, demographic and political context

Regulatory environment

Demand profile

Service evolution

Competitive landscape

Major market players

Segment analysis

Mobile services

Fixed services

Pay-TV

Identifying opportunities

Overall market opportunities

Nigeria telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major telecommunications policy issues

Nigeria communications market revenue , 2013-2020, USD

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020, USD

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015

Mobile data revenue mix, 2015, 2020

Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2013-2020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2013-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Fixed market shares by service, 2015

Fixed access lines by technology, 2015, 2020

Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Nigerian telecommunications market

Nigeria telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2015E

Country indicators

Regulatory structure and policy

Major telecommunications policy issues

Nigeria communications market revenue , 2013-2020, USD

Segment revenue CAGRs, 2015-2020, USD

Segment revenues 2013-2020

Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2015, 2020

Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2015, 2020

Service revenue by operator, 2015

Key telecom market players

Major telecommunications market players

Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2013-2020

Key mobile market indicators, 2015

Mobile data revenue mix, 2015, 2020

Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2013-2020

Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2013-2020

Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2013-2020

Fixed-line penetration of population, 2013-2020

Key fixed market indicators, 2015

Fixed voice revenue, 2013-2020

Internet revenue, 2013-2020

Fixed market shares by service, 2015

Fixed access lines by technology, 2015, 2020

Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2013-2020

Opportunities in the Nigerian telecommunications market

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MTN

Etisalat

Airtel

Globacom

Mtel

M-Tel

Glo

NITEL

NATCOM

21st Century

ACTV

Metro Digital

Trend TV

Multichoice

Startimes

HiTV

Montage

MyTV

CONSAT

Nigeria, fixed market, mobile voice, mobile data, 2G in Nigeria, 3G in Nigeria, 4G in Nigeria, fiber cable in Nigeria, LTE in Nigeria, fixed internet in Nigeria, fixed circuit-switched voice in Nigeria, MTN Nigeria, Airtel Nigeria, Etisalat Nigeria, Glo Nigeria, M-tel, NATCOM, 21st Century, ACTV, Metro Digital, Trend TV, Multichoice, Startimes, HiTV, Montage, MyTV, CONSAT


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